[Politics] Brexit

[Captain Sensible]

We certainly are which is why the UK and European political class combined with big business will say almost anything to scare us into staying in.

Shame you have swallowed their narrative hook line and sinker though. For breaking away from our biggest trading partner see reaching a new trading relationship with Europe which increases our freedom to exploit different trade deals with growing markets ...otherwise known as the rest of the world.

No mate, it's you that have swallowed the pill. Your 'Brexit is for the working man' nonsense is getting boring. The EU has some of the most progressive and robust laws to protect workers being taken advantage of by companies and big businesses in the world. but I wasn't posing about that. You are trying to push the agenda away from the real issues, economy, stability, influence, and being played by a Tory game of cat and mouse for the leadership.

 

[Captain Sensible]

No need, by the time the EU gets round to signing one deal an independent nation will probably have signed 3 or 4 (see Switzerland).

Blimey not this again, Switzerland is hampered by being outside the EU, having no influence and having to accept free movement amoungst other things in order to trade freely with the EU. Switzerland has an enormous amount of wealth and still want to allow concessions with the EU to get free trade. Britain will be a poorer model of that in recession.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Look, I'll break it to you gently. You're an idiot.

in denial again
regards
DR

 

[Captain Sensible]

These arguments have been done in the other thread. Refer to those footy genius. I think the real Johnny Crumplin might think differently to you being part of the building trade. Building sky scrapers and buildings for companies locating to the UK.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Blimey not this again, Switzerland is hampered by being outside the EU, having no influence and having to accept free movement amoungst other things in order to trade freely with the EU. Switzerland has an enormous amount of wealth and still want to allow concessions with the EU to get free trade. Britain will be a poorer model of that in recession.

how do you know that The country's been in recession while in the EU
regards
DR

 

[Captain Sensible]

how do you know that The country's been in recession while in the EU
regards
DR

The first bank to go down was the Northern Rock. After following the US. The recession will happen shortly after the free trade with the EU ends. Or it Carrys on with huge damage to the economy and we still have to let those dirty foreigners in. Hey Das.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

The first bank to go down was the Northern Rock. After following the US. The recession will happen shortly after the free trade with the EU ends. Or it Carrys on with huge damage to the economy and we still have to let those dirty foreigners in. Hey Das.

what a load of blarney , pure speculation nothing more nothing less
regards
DR

 

[JC Footy Genius]

No mate, it's you that have swallowed the pill. Your 'Brexit is for the working man' nonsense is getting boring. The EU has some of the most progressive and robust laws to protect workers being taken advantage of by companies and big businesses in the world. but I wasn't posing about that. You are trying to push the agenda away from the real issues, economy, stability, influence, and being played by a Tory game of cat and mouse for the leadership.

Yes I noticed all that protection for the influx of EU migrants undercutting some of the poorest people here. Big business certainly loves the EU though cheap mobile labour force.. what's not to like. Plus Brussels is one easy access lobby point to splash the cash and get maximum influence.

Returning to the real issues then how's Europe's economy doing and what has been the self inflicted problem causing it to struggle? How's European stability going with the rise of extremist parties fuelled by the migrant crisis and poor economic performance? Is that the Influence that had our PM going to Germany asking if it would be all right to have a bit more control of our borders and being told to clutter off?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Blimey not this again, Switzerland is hampered by being outside the EU, having no influence and having to accept free movement amoungst other things in order to trade freely with the EU. Switzerland has an enormous amount of wealth and still want to allow concessions with the EU to get free trade. Britain will be a poorer model of that in recession.

Please follow the specific topic being discussed .. trade deals. Switzerland has negotiated numerous trade deals including with China and Japan because it is free to do so. We may well be dead the time it takes the EU to do the same.

 

[The Rivet]

I see the 'inners' are getting rather fraught and desperate. Well....for me this thread reads that way over the last few pages. Exactly like all the other threads. This NSC poll is tight.

 

[GT49er]

And inexorably, even in such a potentially 'in' area as the South East, the out vote is creeping up to the 50% mark. Admittedly, there are the 'Shy' inners to take into account (same as the 'shy' tories in the last election) but the political shock of the century, the one career politicians and fat cats fear more than anything, could just be about to happen.

Hope springs eternal.........

 

[jgmcdee]

Please follow the specific topic being discussed .. trade deals. Switzerland has negotiated numerous trade deals including with China and Japan because it is free to do so. We may well be dead the time it takes the EU to do the same.

Alternatively we could go the way of Norway, who were on track to have a trade agreement with China until they rudely awarded a peace prize to a Chinese dissident and China shut the entire process down.

 

[5ways]

No need, by the time the EU gets round to signing one deal an independent nation will probably have signed 3 or 4 (see Switzerland).

On the China one:
"
In July 2014, the free trade agreement signed between China and Switzerland formally took effect. The deal was the culmination of talks that began with a joint feasibility study in 2010, followed by nine rounds of negotiations between 2011-13. The agreement represented the second such deal by China with a European economy, (after Iceland, whose agreement also came into force in July of last year), and one of the largest of Beijing’s free trade agreements with an OECD member state."

That's still four years of negotiation. Even if we are able to push deals through faster than that it takes a long time. Trying to do this with everyone is a gargantuan task and undoubtedly the economy will suffer as a result. We have so many trade deals and more on the horizon now, I just don't think it's worth giving up. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2...switzerlands-free-trade-agreement-with-china/

 

[5ways]

TTIP is taking so long precisely because it has to deal with so many different views and interests, being the EU makes it more complicated, not less. go have a look at the FTSE and the number of international, non-UK focused businesses that are listed, then compare with Frankfurt or Paris. more trade in Eurobonds goes though London than the rest of Europe, China has established Renminbi markets here, not on the continent, global trading in oil, gold, silver, metals, shipping, insurance were all here before the EU and eurozone, they will stay here after.

We're not supposed to talk about the dastardly City but Goldman and Paribas have said they would move some operations to the mainland, while investors such as Blackrock and auditors such as PWC have both been quite firm in saying that Brexit does the City no favours. The Bank of England also mentioned this in their not so subtle briefing on the risks to the UK economy. The City and London is stronger in.

 

[Hamilton]

in denial again
regards
DR

still being pointless?
regards

 

[beorhthelm]

We're not supposed to talk about the dastardly City but Goldman and Paribas have said they would move some operations to the mainland, while investors such as Blackrock and auditors such as PWC have both been quite firm in saying that Brexit does the City no favours. The Bank of England also mentioned this in their not so subtle briefing on the risks to the UK economy. The City and London is stronger in.

an American and French company say the may move some operations to the continent... i think this illustrates the point well, the fact they are here in the first place speaks volumes. we've covered the PWC analysis, there worse case is a small impact, as i say earlier there are far more substantial headwinds regardless of being in or out. financial companies always talk about risks, what i dont hear is anything about the risks of staying in. there cant be none, a vote to Remain isnt a vote for the EU to remain in aspic, it will change and a number of risks and associated costs emerge from there. and what changes, theres a fiscal union and further integration around the corner.

 

[Hamilton]

an American and French company say the may move some operations to the continent... i think this illustrates the point well, the fact they are here in the first place speaks volumes. we've covered the PWC analysis, there worse case is a small impact, as i say earlier there are far more substantial headwinds regardless of being in or out.

The PWC analysis is not a small impact. If you feel that then I would urge you to read the report again. There is a best case scenario and a worst case scenario. Both scenarios see the UK economy taking a significant hit.

What the PWC report makes clear is the complexity of the economic hit. It demonstrates how employment would not be hit, but real wages would suffer significantly. It demonstrates how the GDP would not fully recover for at least a decade.

The PWC report, even at best case scenario makes grim reading.

 

[beorhthelm]

The PWC analysis is not a small impact. If you feel that then I would urge you to read the report again. There is a best case scenario and a worst case scenario. Both scenarios see the UK economy taking a significant hit.

the worst case as i recall equates to -0.2% GDP a quarter by 2020. certainly mot to be sniffed at, but we regularly revise GDP figures aby that sort of number i.e. it would be difficult to distinguish from noise of forecasting error. they talked the numbers up , counting the 5 year affects of negative impacts without any balance (PWC being pro-EU, with a pro-EU CBI commission for the report), in the bigger picture they are quite small shifts. it would not be financial collapse as some would have it, as a cost of returning our sovereignty, its worth it. only a longer view, taking account of where the EU wants to go with integration, we may well be better off financially, who is to say?

 

[Hamilton]

the worst case as i recall equates to -0.2% GDP a quarter by 2020. certainly mot to be sniffed at, but we regularly revise GDP figures aby that sort of number i.e. it would be difficult to distinguish from noise of forecasting error. they talked the numbers up, counting the 5 year affects of negative impacts without any balance, in the bigger picture they are quite small shifts. it would not be financial collapse as some would have it, as a cost of returning our sovereignty, its worth it.

Would you like to share with NSC what PWC says about the long-term impact of exit? Would the electorate like to vote for an outcome that is a return to the norm - in the best case scenario - that would last at least two parliaments? Just talking economics here.

 

[GT49er]

What the PWC report makes clear is the complexity of the economic hit. It demonstrates how employment would not be hit, but real wages would suffer significantly. It demonstrates how the GDP would not fully recover for at least a decade.

No, it doesn't demonstrate; it speculates.

Like most arguments (for and against) it's pure speculation, from a biased point of view. There are no facts about Brexit being a disaster, just a lot of whingeing from the financial sector; what they don't realise, though, is that although it is important, the economy, the City, and the financial sector (the virtual economy) isn't the be-all and end-all.