[Politics] Brexit

[larus]

Yes there are plenty because America also is the world's second largest economy, making up nearly a 1/5th of global GDP and an internal market of 300 million people. This is translated into trade deals which benefit multinational companies. A great place to HQ a business.

The EU is collectively the world's largest economy making up over a 1/5th of global GDP and has an international market of 500 million people. This is translated into trade deals, existing and being negotiated, that benefit multinational companies. A great place to HQ a business.

The UK is 3% of global GDP and has an internal market of 60 million people. Following Brexit we no longer have any trade deals, all of them have to be renegotiated - taking years. Moreover all our business legislation must be written. This is a terrible place to set up an HQ because we have not-so-cleverly decided to decimate our access and leverage within the world's largest economy and largest market.

Yes, like failing to join the Euro would marginalise the UK. Tell me, what were your thoughts on us joining that? Were you in favour - Yes or No?

Reason for asking (just in case you hadn't noticed), the problems which the 'Little Englanders' predicted that it was an ill-designed, doomed to failed and unworkable structure are proving to be correct. No matter what the ECB does in propping up bankrupt states by creative accounting, QE, negative interest rates, etc.,there are several economies which are royally screwed and are doomed all the while the stay with an insane structure. Greece, Portual, Italy need to devalue and accept that they are not a mini-Germany. Look at the levels of unemployment in these countries - it's criminal. A generation who won't know work.

 

[larus]

I'm not sure I'd have my vote swayed by a bloke who claimed expenses on his main residence aka his cottage in Gascony.

I guess you're swayed by Cameron and Osborne then. Got ya.

Or maybe you're swayed by all those who said the we will be f***ed if we don't join the Euro. Er, hmm, well, forget that then.

 

[larus]

If you believe that it's not worth depressing our economy and waiting for a 20 year period before we reset to present norms, vote IN.

If you recognize that meaningful policies such as the Living Wage are totally in the hands of nationally elected politicians vote IN.

The roads will not be paved with gold just by voting out. That's not how meaningful change happens. Don't swallow the smokescreen lies and emotional hubris peddled by the leave camp. The EU is not perfect; it needs changing; but even as it is, we are stronger within it.


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If you have the ability to understand economics and not believe th powers that be with their vested interests: vote OUT.

WTF has the living wage to to do with BREXIT. Christ on a bike. I've heard it all now. This is a UK government policy, yet somehow you're implying it's linked to BREXIT. Hahahaha.

Don't swallow the lies of thos who said we'd be marginalised by not joining the Euro and the City would be lost to the continent. 'Cos that never happened either.

Look; I'll break it to you gently. There's a big world beyond Europe, and Europe is in decline. What with aging populations and a too generous welfare state (combined with the entitlement culture), there's a lot more hardship to come.

 

[Captain Sensible]

If you have the ability to understand economics and not believe th powers that be with their vested interests: vote OUT.

WTF has the living wage to to do with BREXIT. Christ on a bike. I've heard it all now. This is a UK government policy, yet somehow you're implying it's linked to BREXIT. Hahahaha.

Don't swallow the lies of thos who said we'd be marginalised by not joining the Euro and the City would be lost to the continent. 'Cos that never happened either.

Look; I'll break it to you gently. There's a big world beyond Europe, and Europe is in decline. What with aging populations and a too generous welfare state (combined with the entitlement culture), there's a lot more hardship to come.

Everyone else is wrong, the government, the IMF, the economics professors, the evidence! But yes carry on with sticking your head it the sand, and an 'alright on the night' attitude. It will see this country struggle for years if those that vote out get their way.

 

[beorhthelm]

The UK is 3% of global GDP and has an internal market of 60 million people. Following Brexit we no longer have any trade deals, all of them have to be renegotiated - taking years.

you keep saying this like its a fact, when its merely an opinion. we have an unparalleled network of trade and diplomatic links throughout the world and it wouldnt take long for us to draft and agree outline trade deals. it would be a lot quicker than the EU with so many less vested interests to have to negotiate over. the size of our economy would still be relatively large compared to all but a half dozen countries, 3 of which would be dealt with in a single neogitation with the EU. and is largely irrelevent, it whether there's desired goods and services to trade in that matters not country GDP.

on company HQ's, the main drivers for that are taxation, access to capital markets and legal services and regulatory frameworks. we score higher on these fronts than the nearest European competition, for example EU wasnt even a factor for HSBC when it looked at relocation last year.

 

[5ways]

Will Labour be in power when we leave the EU...? if so i will stay in..or else we have had it/

I doubt almost entirely that Labour will win in 2020. So no. What will happen is Boris, most likely, will become PM. This is also in effect a referendum on Cameron.

 

[Bigtomfu]

This vote will be decided by demographics. Those in the 50-70 bracket that remember us entering the common market and then the EC will most likely vote No and secondly are more likely to actually come out to vote whereas the younger generations most likely see being In as preferable from an apathy perspective and also less motivated to actually come out to vote.

I personally want us to remain in but only on the basis that a No vote would lead to horrendous economic volatility for a protracted period of time, leave Cameron's position untenable and either lead to Boris taking over or almost certainly hand Labour a premature and unwarranted victory at the next election leading to further protracted economic paucity. It would be death by a thousand cuts.

 

[Captain Sensible]

I doubt almost entirely that Labour will win in 2020. So no. What will happen is Boris, most likely, will become PM. This is also in effect a referendum on Cameron.

The only reason Cameron called a referendum was to take votes from UKIP at the last election, the only reason Boris wants out is he's hoping Cameron loses and Boris becomes new PM. They are literally playing with the futures of all of us. We think we have it in our hands but we are being played in a massive political game. To actually believe that we would be better off breaking away from our biggest trading partner (not to mention precarious economic conditions) is madness.

 

[Notters]

So that's just the people you hang about with, then.

Well yes, exactly. It wasn't supposed to be a moral or philosophical point.

 

[beorhthelm]

I personally want us to remain in but only on the basis that a No vote would lead to horrendous economic volatility for a protracted period of time

then you should stop listening to the sirens of doom, leaving will lead to mild economic discomfort for a couple of years. even their own review says this (the PWC analysis). there are far more significant factors bearing down on the economy in the same time frame, not least the systemic problems in the Eurozone which is keeping their economies down.

 

[brighton fella]

yesterday morning i received the tax payer funded pro EU propaganda bullsh*t leaflet.
later this afternoon i brought a stamp and a envelope and sent it straight back to where it originally came from, oh well at least it made me feel better.

 

[5ways]

you keep saying this like its a fact, when its merely an opinion. we have an unparalleled network of trade and diplomatic links throughout the world and it wouldnt take long for us to draft and agree outline trade deals. it would be a lot quicker than the EU with so many less vested interests to have to negotiate over. the size of our economy would still be relatively large compared to all but a half dozen countries, 3 of which would be dealt with in a single neogitation with the EU.

on company HQ's, the main drivers for that are taxation, access to capital markets and legal services and regulatory frameworks. we score higher on these fronts than the nearest European competition, for example EU wasnt even a factor for HSBC when it looked at relocation last year.

These regulatory frameworks and legal services are interwoven with European law. City law firms are having a field day doing prep for Brexit because the regulation upon which they do business is going to be partly abandoned and partly rewritten. It also takes years to sign and implement trade deals. Look at how long TTIP is taking. Moreover we would have to negotiate all of these deals at the same time.

This is what it looks like currently:

Post brexit this map will be empty - I don't really want to be disadvantaged for years while we rehash old agreements. The US has already said it is not important, it has bigger fish to fry - like the EU/US TTIP. Also these EU vested interests would have to each sign off on our re-entry into the internal market - I wonder what concessions they will extract from us while we're over a barrel?

Yes we're a large economy with a lot of rich consumers, but we're no longer part of the largest economic bloc. We're a significant small player who not lead but be led by the big boys; the US, China and the EU.

 

[Hamilton]

If you have the ability to understand economics and not believe th powers that be with their vested interests: vote OUT.

WTF has the living wage to to do with BREXIT. Christ on a bike. I've heard it all now. This is a UK government policy, yet somehow you're implying it's linked to BREXIT. Hahahaha.

Don't swallow the lies of thos who said we'd be marginalised by not joining the Euro and the City would be lost to the continent. 'Cos that never happened either.

Look; I'll break it to you gently. There's a big world beyond Europe, and Europe is in decline. What with aging populations and a too generous welfare state (combined with the entitlement culture), there's a lot more hardship to come.

Look, I'll break it to you gently. You're an idiot.

 

[jakarta]

I will start with the creation and subsequent reckless implementation of the euro, which has given rise to catastrophic economic consequences in a number of underdeveloped EU states which should never have been admitted to the euro and worst of all appalling rates of youth unemployment.

Greece is the best example of this, with Goldman Sachs playing fast and loose with the key economic data, the very same institution that is bankrolling the remain campaign..........we know who their political friends and allies are don't we!!!!

To fix this unnecessary problem Eurozone countries will have to surrender their fiscal sovereignty, the consequences of that are completely unknown. Given much of the continent's antipathy to the strongest Eurozone state I don't think this will end well when they start controlling their purse strings.

Italy is currently dealing with this dynamic whist trying to stabilise their banks, they know full well you can only boil sugar for so long.

There was a time the pro EU lot would argue passionately that there would never be a 2 speed Europe. Now that is the very solution to the problem their sheer arrogance and supercilious vanity created.

Willkommen Back Herr Fergus.

 

[Captain Sensible]

Willkommen Back Herr Fergus.

Ban

 

[jakarta]

Look, I'll break it to you gently. You're an idiot.

Ah, abuse. A sure sign you have the upper hand in a discussion...

 

[JC Footy Genius]

The only reason Cameron called a referendum was to take votes from UKIP at the last election, the only reason Boris wants out is he's hoping Cameron loses and Boris becomes new PM. They are literally playing with the futures of all of us. We think we have it in our hands but we are being played in a massive political game. To actually believe that we would be better off breaking away from our biggest trading partner (not to mention precarious economic conditions) is madness.

We certainly are which is why the UK and European political class combined with big business will say almost anything to scare us into staying in.

Shame you have swallowed their narrative hook line and sinker though. For breaking away from our biggest trading partner see reaching a new trading relationship with Europe which increases our freedom to exploit different trade deals with growing markets ...otherwise known as the rest of the world.

 

[5ways]

We certainly are which is why the UK and European political class combined with big business will say almost anything to scare us into staying in.

Shame you have swallowed their narrative hook line and sinker though. For breaking away from our biggest trading partner see reaching a new trading relationship with Europe which increases our freedom to exploit different trade deals with growing markets ...otherwise known as the rest of the world.

The rest of the world that the EU is signing trade agreements with? I'm sure they'll push that aside to make room in their diary for us. Unfortunately they know we love queuing.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

The rest of the world that the EU is signing trade agreements with? I'm sure they'll push that aside to make room in their diary for us. Unfortunately they know we love queuing.

No need, by the time the EU gets round to signing one deal an independent nation will probably have signed 3 or 4 (see Switzerland).

 

[beorhthelm]

These regulatory frameworks and legal services are interwoven with European law. City law firms are having a field day doing prep for Brexit because the regulation upon which they do business is going to be partly abandoned and partly rewritten. It also takes years to sign and implement trade deals. Look at how long TTIP is taking.

TTIP is taking so long precisely because it has to deal with so many different views and interests, being the EU makes it more complicated, not less. go have a look at the FTSE and the number of international, non-UK focused businesses that are listed, then compare with Frankfurt or Paris. more trade in Eurobonds goes though London than the rest of Europe, China has established Renminbi markets here, not on the continent, global trading in oil, gold, silver, metals, shipping, insurance were all here before the EU and eurozone, they will stay here after.