[Politics] Brexit

[Hampster Gull]

What I'm trying to say is 90% of people ITK are for remain. Across politics and economics. Why go all in with a 10% chance to win?

The outers need to explain with certainty what we get from leaving. All posturing and nonsense. The great british public will vote in anyway, its only the fringes here

 

[Soulman]

What I'm trying to say is 90% of people ITK are for remain. Across politics and economics. Why go all in with a 10% chance to win?

Again, where does this 90% and 10% figure come from, who has told you this?...... where have you got these facts from.....or is it just a dodgy report, or hearsay.
I await the proof.

 

[Hampster Gull]

Again, where does this 90% and 10% figure come from, who has told you this?...... where have you got these facts from.....or is it just a dodgy report, or hearsay.
I await the proof.

 

[Soulman]

The outers need to explain with certainty what we get from leaving. All posturing and nonsense. The great british public will vote in anyway, its only the fringes here

I think you are right the public will vote IN, i think the porkies will be ramped up so high that many will be sh1t scared to do anything other than vote IN.
At the moment the vote is close.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

What I'm trying to say is 90% of people ITK are for remain. Across politics and economics. Why go all in with a 10% chance to win?

Assume you arrived at that figure with help from the treasury.

Can't wait to see your level of argument a week before the referendum

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

The outers need to explain with certainty what we get from leaving. All posturing and nonsense. The great british public will vote in anyway, its only the fringes here

Still time......l a comfortable Brighton message board will not decide the vote.....large inner city areas with frontline immigration problems will...

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

Again, where does this 90% and 10% figure come from, who has told you this?...... where have you got these facts from.....or is it just a dodgy report, or hearsay.
I await the proof.

I admire [MENTION=25549]5ways[/MENTION]....i really do......don't agree one bit but still admire.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

The outers need to explain with certainty what we get from leaving. All posturing and nonsense. The great british public will vote in anyway, its only the fringes here

A summary

We end the supremacy of EU law and the European Court. We will be able to kick out those who make our laws.

Europe yes, EU no. We have a new UK-EU Treaty based on free trade and friendly cooperation. There is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. We will take back the power to negotiate our own trade deals.

We spend our money on our priorities. Instead of sending £350 million per week to Brussels, we will spend it on our priorities like the NHS and schools.

We take back control of migration policy, including the 1951 UN Convention on refugees, so we have a fairer and more humane policy, and we decide who comes into our country, on what terms, and who is removed.

We will regain our seat on international bodies where Brussels represents us, and use our greater international influence to push for greater international cooperation.

We will build a new European institutional architecture that enables all countries, whether in or out of the EU or euro, to trade freely and cooperate in a friendly way.

We will negotiate a new UK-EU Treaty and end the legal supremacy of EU law and the European Court before the 2020 election.

We do not necessarily have to use Article 50 - we may agree with the EU another path that is in both our interests.

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_newdeal

Not that any argument/opinions or facts will change your mind.

 

[Soulman]

I admire [MENTION=25549]5ways[/MENTION]....i really do......don't agree one bit but still admire.

Same here really. He posts what could or might happen with such enthusiasm, such belief and conviction......... he believes everything and only sees the good of the EU.
Never deterred even when his facts can not be substantiated.

 

[Soulman]

Iain Duncan Smith says Germany had 'veto' power over David Cameron EU deal
Former Cabinet minister says there was an empty chair in Downing Street – dubbed the German chair – that symbolised Angela Merkel's secret power in negotiations
Germany had a secret veto over what David Cameron could demand as part of his renegotiation of Britain’s membership of the EU, a former Cabinet Minister claimed today.

Iain Duncan Smith, who resigned as Work and Pensions Secretary in March, alleged that a key speech by the Prime Minister in which he was due to demand restrictions on all EU migrants coming into the UK was partially dropped at the insistence of Germany.

And he even claimed there was an empty chair in Downing Street – dubbed the German chair – that symbolised their power in dictating the terms of any deal David Cameron would be able to negotiate.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-eu-deal-says-iain-duncan-smith-a7021826.html

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Same here really. He posts what could or might happen with such enthusiasm, such belief and conviction......... he believes everything and only sees the good of the EU.
Never deterred even when his facts can not be substantiated.

Facts? I think you mean opinion, conjecture. I can' t remember him ever quoting any facts.

 

[cunning fergus]

What I'm trying to say is 90% of people ITK are for remain. Across politics and economics. Why go all in with a 10% chance to win?

When you say ITK, what you really mean is Goldman Sachs.............

 

[5ways]

Again, where does this 90% and 10% figure come from, who has told you this?...... where have you got these facts from.....or is it just a dodgy report, or hearsay.
I await the proof.

I was making a general point about the dearth of experts for Out. The 90% was a rhetorical point but we can substantiate it. Consider: every international economic body that exists. The IMF, The EBRD, the OECD - all have said that Brexit will damage our economy. Add that to the Treasury position which has been well discussed. Add to that a range of businesses, HSBC, Oxford Economics, any other bank you care to ask. Just today the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (they sound legit) that the pound could slide 20%. http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-niesr-idUKKCN0Y118G

Take the LSE, the foremost economics university in the world. Take any expert worth his salt and stack it up against the Economists for Brexit. A handful, eight, prominent dissenting voices. One of whom also warned that the minimum wage would wreak economic havoc - wrong then wrong now eh?

Now that I think about it we can dig out the old favourite, the FT's survey of over 100 economists.

https://next.ft.com/content/1a86ab36-afbe-11e5-b955-1a1d298b6250

Pretty comprehensive no?

With politics I think the only international politicians I can think of are for Brexit are V. Putin of Russia, Marie Le Pen of Occupied Europe, and Donald 'The Donald' Trump. Significantly all our good commonwealth buddies want us to remain too. Australia, NZ, India. So it was a rhetorical device but on closer consideration I do think it works out at about 90:10.

 

[5ways]

When you say ITK, what you really mean is Goldman Sachs.............

Yes and many other large international investment firms that would prefer not to relocate 1000's of jobs to the mainland. This goes for JP Morgan, Credit Suisse et al.

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

Yes and many other large international investment firms that would prefer not to relocate 1000's of jobs to the mainland. This goes for JP Morgan, Credit Suisse et al.

Are they here anyway because of the pound?

 

[5ways]

Facts? I think you mean opinion, conjecture. I can' t remember him ever quoting any facts.

Here's one I like

 

[5ways]

Are they here anyway because of the pound?

They have a lot of flexibility in London but they also have the best of both worlds. Pound, timezone, legal structure etc. But a lot of their business is in Europe and right now we have harmonised regulation which makes it easy for them to take advantage of London. London is currently the global centre for Euro trading. This would be at severe risk if we ourselves weren't in Europe.

"But Christian Noyer, a former ECB vice president and Bank of France governor, is free to make the case as he no longer holds a high office in the euro zone.

"If Britain left the EU, the euro area authorities could no longer tolerate such a high proportion of financial activities involving their currency taking place abroad," he said.

"It is already very difficult for euro members to accept that our currency is largely traded outside the currency area, beyond the control of the ECB," Noyer wrote in an article for economic think tank OMFIF.

Two euro zone central bank officials, requesting anonymity, made the same points to Reuters.

The trading of euro-based securities spans trillions of euros of derivatives deals as well as the 'repo' market providing short-term funding for banks - 2 trillion euros (1.60 trillion pounds) of which experts say is based in London. On top of this, there is foreign exchange trading in the currency itself."

We are talking big big money here. And what's important for us is the big big tax revenue. http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-euros-idUKKCN0WY5DB

Xavier Rolet, chief executive of the London Stock Exchange, has said that as many as 100,000 City jobs could be lost if Britain left the EU in a private meeting with David Cameron, linked to moving the clearing of euro-denominated securities out of London. https://next.ft.com/content/868345d8-1607-11e6-b197-a4af20d5575e

Another interesting case is Credit Suisse. The EU demands that if you want to bank in the EU, you have to be in the EU. So Swiss banks have to set up outside of Zurich. So, where better than here in the UK? But what if we leave? Well UK banks will have to set up operations in the EU. This will cost jobs. Moreover those Swiss banks will shift a lot of business across too as their primary reason for being here as evaporated, so why not consolidate in Frankfurt for example?

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Yes 8% is quite conservative. http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/05/10...er-eu-vote-niesr/?ft_site=falcon&desktop=true


"The pound could fall by as much 20 per cent if Britain votes to leave the European Union this summer, according to the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR).


Warning of a “significant” economic shock that could await the UK, including a 0.8 percentage point hit to growth, the think-tank said a weaker pound would result in an “intense bout of inflationary pressure” should Britain vote to leave, writes Mehreen Khan.

Inflation would rise by 2-4 percentage points more after a “Brexit” compared to the aftermath of a decision to remain, Niesr calculated.

Sterling has fallen ahead of the referendum on June 23, although it has picked up against the dollar more recently. The euro is currently trading at £0.787.

A weaker currency would also provide no boost to British export industries due to their lost access to EU markets after June 23, added NIESR. It said British exports would fall between 10-29 per cent, noting:

The weaker pound would also lead to higher import prices, feeding through into higher prices faced by households. Lower prices for our exports, coupled with higher import prices, leads to a persistent deterioration in the terms of trade.

A host of major international organisations have now calculated the economic impact of Brexit. The OECD has said every British household would lose the equivalent of one month’s income over four years. The International Monetary Fund has spoken of the “severe” economic damage that could await for the UK outside the EU."

I feel a bit like Cassandra here. This is a link from this morning btw.

So to summarise, you decided to avoid the question entirely because you knew sterling has never fallen by 8% ( even on Black Wednesday ! ) so the idea it would fall by that much is a load of bluster.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

What I want to know is when we are going to get our pollling card?, because time is getting on. There seems to be very little information about this at the moment, and it wouldn't surprise me if they try and shaft us. Less people who can vote the more chances are we will Remain.

 

[Bladders]

Here's one I like

Like Boris I was IN a year ago.

Then like Boris I actually looked into it all a bit deeper.

OUT.