[Politics] Brexit

[GoldWithFalmer]

It's a little more than crude - it's downright wrong. It uses a prediction for the size of the economy in 2030 against the number of households NOW. Utterly false and misleading stats.

EXACTLY!!!! If as we are told the worst happens and immigration does continue unabated upon an Brexit...then according to the remainers all will be ok because there will be more taxation...

 

[pastafarian]

The treasury assumes that by 2030 the economy will be 6.2% smaller than it would be if we remained in the EU. If you divide a lower GDP by the number of households you get £4,300. It's a little crude but the point stands.

"The government is confusing GDP per household with household income.
GDP per household is what you get when you add up everything produced in the economy in a year and divide it by the number of households. GDP per household does have an impact on household income, but not on a pound-for-pound basis - so you would expect it to fall by somewhat less than £4,300."

Reality Check verdict: The precise figure is questionable and probably not particularly helpful.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36073201


"Taken as a prediction of the cost to families, £4,300 is almost certainly wrong, and it’s not helpful to focus on it. There’s too much uncertainty in the specific figures and the estimate is about the overall size of the economy, not about households’ incomes."

"This is not what families will experience"

https://fullfact.org/europe/4300-question-would-leaving-eu-really-make-every-household-worse/

 

[5ways]

spread the word

He says at 30 seconds we would never propose leaving the internal market. That is what Gove has advocated. He then says regional trade blocs are obsolete at 50 seconds, if that is the case why do we export more to Ireland than China, India and Brazil combined? He then says at 1:18 that the UK is the fifth largest economy in the world, well "that applies only if you convert national income in sterling to dollars at current exchange rates." https://next.ft.com/content/f49b3502-113f-11e6-91da-096d89bd2173 Put differently sterling has to fall only 8% and we will fall behind France to become the sixth largest economy in the world. When the pound tanks following Brexit we will immediately have fallen down the pecking order. Nice.

He goes in for some nice tub-thumping too but in terms of economic activity our economy is smaller than India, Brazil Russia and Indonesia. This demographic weight matters and will matter when negotiating trade deals and agreements on favourable terms. You need big markets to be a big fish. We are a small but rich market of 60 million. We are currently part of the richest and one of the biggest markets of 500 million. Brexit jettisons this in favour of some flag-waving.

Then some quick fire lies: they are on the path to closer union, we are not. We will not, ever, have to ditch the pound. We are not part of schengen and are not going to be.

 

[beorhthelm]

The treasury assumes that by 2030 the economy will be 6.2% smaller than it would be if we remained in the EU. If you divide a lower GDP by the number of households you get £4,300. It's a little crude but the point stands.

its more than a little crude: by the same measure each household income today is worth about £74k. i wonder how many people can say that in reality.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Did you catch this while you were trusting their judgement

"Colonel Richard Kemp, a veteran of 14 British Army tours and former head of international terrorism for the UK Joint Intelligence Committee has blasted Prime Minister David Cameron today on the PM’s warnings over Britain’s security and European Union (EU) membership. Cameron asserted that Britain’s exit from the EU could herald fresh conflicts across the continent, with some interpreting his comments to mean that Britain may find itself within a third world war due to leaving the EU.
Colonel Richard Kemp and security analyst Jasper Reid hit back Tuesday, writing that the European Union’s policies have created a newly belligerent Russia, a migrant crisis, a bullying, Islamist Turkey, a Jewish exodus from Europe, and more dangers".

“The EU failed to prevent the migration crisis that threatens to overwhelm many European cities and the housing, welfare, health, and education services paid for by the hard work of citizens who have been allowed no say. “The EU failed to deploy effective naval forces along the North African coast to prevent illegal immigration across the Mediterranean. Such action, used to great effect by Australia, would not only have prevented the landing of countless unregulated immigrants on our shores but would also have saved thousands of lives and sent a firm message to both immigrants and traffickers.”

www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/09...chief-blasts-camerons-post-brexit-war-threat/


Is there any calamity Brexit will not cause?

Richard Kemp is a fruitcake who is involved in something called 'Christian Zionism' and who claims to have conversations with dead people. Just the ticket for the wacky Breibart website. Quote away.

 

[Bladders]

If the EU Referendum was today.

The fact some are still clinging to this £4300 figure as a reason to stay in just shows how little they have researched the whole EU debate.

One false claim from the chancellor on the news and they're definitely voting in .

Clowns

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Put differently sterling has to fall only 8% and we will fall behind France to become the sixth largest economy in the world.

Care to detail when sterling last fell a MASSIVE 8% ? Talk about scaremongering ..... ONLY 8% indeed !!!!

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Richard Kemp is a fruitcake who is involved in something called 'Christian Zionism' and who claims to have conversations with dead people. Just the ticket for the wacky Breibart website. Quote away.

Will do ....

Richard Kemp has spent most his life fighting terrorism and insurgency, commanding British troops on the front line of some of the world’s toughest hotspots, including Afghanistan, Iraq, the Balkans and Northern Ireland ... Richard was sent to Kabul in 2003 to take command of British Forces in Afghanistan. Realising that there was an increasing terrorist threat, but no resources or plans in place to deal with it, he immediately put together an unconventional force of British troops and US Marines. They begged, borrowed and stole equipment to gain intelligence and launch covert surveillance. Writing about Richard, the Canadian general commanding international forces at the time said: “His efforts led directly to the most successful offensive counter-terrorist operations in Kabul, with several key terrorist leaders now under arrest, significantly setting back the enemy campaign.” Along the way, Richard helped to disarm local warlords, trained the fledgling Afghan army and police and even played a part in preventing a coup d’état against President Hamid Karzai.

Richard joined the British Army the day after he left school, and spent the next 30 years in some of the world’s most notorious trouble spots. He first came under enemy fire on the Falls Road in Belfast as a 19-year-old infantry platoon commander. During one of the 8 tours of duty in Northern Ireland that followed, he was wounded in a multiple terrorist mortar attack in South Armagh’s bandit country.
In 1993 he was appointed Member of the Order of the British Empire by the Queen for intelligence work in Northern Ireland. He took part in the invasion of Iraq in 1991 in a Challenger tank with the Desert Rats, and was decorated for bravery with the United Nations Protection Force in Bosnia in 1994. In 2001, he formed a tri-service organization to train 45,000 British troops deploying on operations each year around the globe, and later was counter terrorism adviser to the Macedonian premier.

Most of the last five years of Richard’s military career were spent in Downing Street as head of the international terrorism team at the Joint Intelligence Committee, where he was responsible for producing assessments on the growing global terrorist problem for the Prime Minister and the Cabinet. In 2005, at the request of the US Ambassador to Iraq, he spent three months on a special intelligence assignment in Baghdad, Fallujah and Mosul.

Over this period he was also a member of Cobra, the government’s top-level crisis management committee. He Chaired the Cobra Intelligence Group, responsible for coordinating the work of the national intelligence agencies, including MI5 and MI6, during the July 2005 London bombings, the Madrid and Bali attacks and a number of high profile political kidnappings. He was appointed Commander of the Order of the British Empire for his work and, in the words of the Chief of Defence Intelligence, had “huge influence at the highest level of government.”

Since retiring from the Army Richard has been responsible for security of one of the most threatened terrorist targets in London, has advised on countering the terrorist threat in New York and Mumbai, and was appointed special adviser on terrorism to the House of Commons Home Affairs Select Committee. He is a Senior Associate Fellow of the Royal United Services Institute, the world’s longest-established military think-tank; and a board member of Friends of Israel Initiative, Advancing Human Rights and NGO Monitor.

In 2007 and 2008 Richard led a campaign to recognise the sacrifice of British troops killed and wounded in action by the award of a medal similar to the US Purple Heart. This gained support of the majority of Members of Parliament as well as widespread support among serving and retired military personnel, and resulted in the institution by Her Majesty The Queen of The Elizabeth Cross, awarded now to the next of kin of all British servicemen and women killed on operations since the end of the Second World War.

http://richard-kemp.com/about/

 

[portslade seagull]

The fact some are still clinging to this £4300 figure as a reason to stay in just shows how little they have researched the whole EU debate.

One false claim from the chancellor on the news and they're definitely voting in .

Clowns

And there are no hard facts backing it up just some figure plucked from out of thin air to serve some scaremongering purpose which is now backfiring on them as will the WW3 doomsday scenario ... hilarious

 

[Hampster Gull]

Has [MENTION=29908]gregbrighton[/MENTION] hacked your account?

Does he also care about about real money and our future?

 

[5ways]

It's a little more than crude - it's downright wrong. It uses a prediction for the size of the economy in 2030 against the number of households NOW. Utterly false and misleading stats.

No. The number crunching adds up it is how it is displayed is the difficult part. This £4300 is based on the Switzerland model but how to translate in a way that relates to people?

The EEA (Norway) model is a reduction of 3.8%. The middle path is 6.2% , the £4300 figure, the WTO option (the Gove option perhaps) is a 7.5% drop. This corresponds to a loss of about £1,800 per person – about £4,300 per household. and 36 billion in lost tax revenue.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

No. The number crunching adds up it is how it is displayed is the difficult part. This £4300 is based on the Switzerland model but how to translate in a way that relates to people?

The EEA (Norway) model is a reduction of 3.8%. The middle path is 6.2% , the £4300 figure, the WTO option (the Gove option perhaps) is a 7.5% drop. This corresponds to a loss of about £1,800 per person – about £4,300 per household. and 36 billion in lost tax revenue.

Based on the number of people / households NOW - even a remainer admitted it on the Andrew Neill show.

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

Does he also care about about real money and our future?

fair points.....a future of 20 million more people in the UK .....looks more than rosy to me....might move to Norway or Switzerland.......among the happiest populations anywhere..

 

[5ways]

Did you catch this while you were trusting their judgement

"Colonel Richard Kemp, a veteran of 14 British Army tours and former head of international terrorism for the UK Joint Intelligence Committee has blasted Prime Minister David Cameron today on the PM’s warnings over Britain’s security and European Union (EU) membership. Cameron asserted that Britain’s exit from the EU could herald fresh conflicts across the continent, with some interpreting his comments to mean that Britain may find itself within a third world war due to leaving the EU.
Colonel Richard Kemp and security analyst Jasper Reid hit back Tuesday, writing that the European Union’s policies have created a newly belligerent Russia, a migrant crisis, a bullying, Islamist Turkey, a Jewish exodus from Europe, and more dangers".

“The EU failed to prevent the migration crisis that threatens to overwhelm many European cities and the housing, welfare, health, and education services paid for by the hard work of citizens who have been allowed no say. “The EU failed to deploy effective naval forces along the North African coast to prevent illegal immigration across the Mediterranean. Such action, used to great effect by Australia, would not only have prevented the landing of countless unregulated immigrants on our shores but would also have saved thousands of lives and sent a firm message to both immigrants and traffickers.”

www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/09...chief-blasts-camerons-post-brexit-war-threat/


Is there any calamity Brexit will not cause?

Breitbart is not a reputable source. But blaming the EU for Russia's actions is simply victim blaming nonsense. The EU didn't cause the migrant crisis, or have any hand in anti-antisemitism. How would the EU have prevented the migration crisis? Sink the boats? Mobilise the Junker Fifth Armoured Brigade to take Damascus and put an end to this ghastly thing? The EU doesn't have a navy to deploy or soldiers to guard crossing points in North Africa. If it did perhaps a better solution could have been found quickly

 

[pastafarian]

He goes in for some nice tub-thumping too

he does indeed
beats your constant £4300 lies everytime

 

[5ways]

And we were told by experts not entering the Eurozone WOULD damage us. They were wrong so forgive me when I don't believe the current experts when they use the word 'COULD'.

Some experts were wrong then so all experts are wrong now? I'm not saying place blind faith but when the majority of people who know what they're talking about say the same thing it's usually worth listening to.

 

[5ways]

Based on the number of people / households NOW - even a remainer admitted it on the Andrew Neill show.

That doesn't fatally compromise the argument. However you want to cut the cake it is an economy 6.2% smaller. It is a permanently poorer country with poorer people in it. If it is not precisely £4300 - say it's £4000, or £3500 - it is still thousands of pounds worse off. I want the strongest possible economy, that benefits the widest group of people.

 

[pastafarian]

How would the EU have prevented the migration crisis?

If a certain German cow hadnt invited everyone over they could have prevented making it much much worse.
instead,she gave a green light to traffickers to drown people in dangerous boats,she enabled those dishing out fake passports to cash in and enabled terrorists to travel and commit murder

god knows how many are dead because of her
she has blood on her hands

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

That doesn't fatally compromise the argument. However you want to cut the cake it is an economy 6.2% smaller. It is a permanently poorer country with poorer people in it. If it is not precisely £4300 - say it's £4000, or £3500 - it is still thousands of pounds worse off. I want the strongest possible economy, that benefits the widest group of people.

It would have to be to support 80 million people....by 2030...

 

[Soulman]

Richard Kemp is a fruitcake who is involved in something called 'Christian Zionism' and who claims to have conversations with dead people. Just the ticket for the wacky Breibart website. Quote away.

Colonel Richard Kemp, a veteran of 14 British Army tours and former head of international terrorism for the UK Joint Intelligence Committee
"Fruitcake"..... i think i would have more respect for his opinions than many, so you quote away.