[Politics] Brexit

[Hamilton]

Exactly, Brexit has come at a perfect time to forget the downturn in wages pre June 2016.

How do you reach that conclusion? Wages in real terms have been decreasing, but how would Brexit arrest that? It might, but how?

 

[Hamilton]

You can post as many guardian front pages as you want but I'm telling you that my money is better and we are very busy with order books full.

Can I ask, what is your business selling?

 

[melias shoes]

Can I ask, what is your business selling?

Construction.

 

[Soulman]

Construction.

Good to hear

 

[Hamilton]

Construction.

How big is the business? Are you working on large scale projects? Is your pipeline full of existing work or are new deals being signed?

 

[Hamilton]

Construction.

BTW, I'm just trying to determine whether we should be pleased that its pipeline work that's coming in or existing work.

 

[Soulman]

How do you reach that conclusion? Wages in real terms have been decreasing, but how would Brexit arrest that? It might, but how?

My bad, i mean't that wages had stagnated and gone back to 2005 pre Brexit, in fact long before. I mean't that some are saying that post Brexit wages would drop, but it is the perfect time to forget what has happened pre Brexit and wages.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

This thread is full of interesting debate, but until Article 50 gets triggered we really have little idea of which way events will lead us.

We have a referendum result. We know we will be leaving the EU. We are yet to understand or experience the full implications.

In my opinion this is the wisest post on a very long thread. Economic forecasters who earn their living making assumptions and looking into the future have a patchy record which is the reason they stress that their work is predictive. Unknown unknowns are the enemy of all forecasts. There are posters on here who assert their forecasts as fact almost on a weekly basis and surprise surprise they are always predicting outcomes that tally with their political view. It is a hangover from the Referendum campaign and isn't really credible.
There is uncertainty with forecasts at the moment and that would have been the case if we had voted to Remain. The EU has economic headwinds unrelated to Brexit. Life is uncertain and economics especially so. Much as I understand people's desire for
certainty I'm afraid it isn't on offer and simply expressing a view assertively and cherry picking figures won't change this reality.

 

[Hamilton]

My bad, i mean't that wages had stagnated and gone back to 2005 pre Brexit, in fact long before. I mean't that some are saying that post Brexit wages would drop, but it is the perfect time to forget what has happened pre Brexit and wages.

You're right. I'm a remainer and a passionate one. However, we are where we are. The challenge now is to ensure that the wage gap decreases. Is there an opportunity to reset that gap now? Probably, yes. However, my worry is that the reset won't necessarily advantage the poor - it will disadvantage the middle classes.

We'll see. Events will unfold. It's essential we face each opportunity and ask how it will be advantageous for the UK in the long-term.

 

[yxee]

It is a question of politics but "dropping the wage gap" in itself isn't the right goal. What if someone is worth more than someone else? Equalising pay is nonsensical.

 

[melias shoes]

BTW, I'm just trying to determine whether we should be pleased that its pipeline work that's coming in or existing work.

The projects are large and work is coming in all the time.
May I point out that I have been in the industry now for 32 years. Over those years recessions have come and gone for numerous reasons. We was told that the 2008 recession was the worst but I can tell you the early 90s was far worse. With people losing their houses and jobs on a large scale.
What I'm trying to say is we may have a recession but it may not entirely be down to Brexit because their are other reasons that recessions occur. However it does seem to me that some keen remainers are hoping for this so they can say I told you so.

 

[larus]

I see that the £/Euro rate is now 1.18. So much for the fear about the currency and possible parity. Before the usual suspects squeal about we haven't triggered article 50/left the EU yet, go and look at the £/Euro rate for the last 10 years and see the fluctuations. It goes up, it goes down.

Also, just because a lot of these forecasts have predicted Armageddon, I for one, don't beleive them. Nearly all official statistics since the vote have been exceeding expectations. There was a forecast by a large American bank earlier this week also forecasting that the £ would be heading towards 1.5 against the dollar over the next few years (the said there was also risks of volatility too). So, not all forecasts are doom and gloom.

Yes, wages/wage prospects are crap, but the root cause of this is the insane policy of QE an not because of BREXIT. This has led to asset inflation and a transfer of wealth to those with assets - the already rich/elite. All governments seem scared of recessions, but they have been a feature of economies for a long time.

I feel that the biggest problem in the UK is housing - start building more and this would help in terms of quality of life for people and a rebalancing of wealth distribution.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

This thread is full of interesting debate, but until Article 50 gets triggered we really have little idea of which way events will lead us.

We have a referendum result. We know we will be leaving the EU. We are yet to understand or experience the full implications.

Succinctly written and irrefutably true.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Succinctly written and irrefutably true.

Agreed.

 

[Brighton Mod]

Re-read your message: "you seek to close down any opinion thats contradictory to yours". No I don't, I'm just calling out those who make lazy tabloidesque name-calling because we're beyond that now. The facts were known before the referendum and the facts are known now. The Times and the Mail are both carrying the story that Farage is considering emigrating to the USA on the day after the Chancellor confirmed that the OBR were predicting significantly reduced growth because of impending Brexit.

There isn't one voter in the 48% who would vote Brexit now if given the chance whereas there would be considerably more than the 1 in 17 Brexit voters needed to tip the balance the other way.

There is also no healing process for the 48%, if anything they are more angry than they were the day after the vote.

Chill out fella, did I say say anything about Farage? Your now claiming to speak for the 48% and judging the 52% by sayig that some would change their vote. You don't know, I don't know, no one knows, not even the pollsters who have got the last three major votes in the UK wrong.
I can concur with your thoughts on the 48% becoming more angry, at least some of them, as it has manifested itself on here. The arguments go back and forth on here, with in accurate facts, wishlists, interpretations and just lies being propogated. Sometimes in life we don't win and unfortunately we have to deal with it, but what is being really missed in the greater argument I see on here is that many people just did not want to be governed by the unelected self serving politicians in Brussels. How do I know they are self serving, because I don't know a politician that isn't. So the economic argument is irrelevant to many and was missed massively by the leave campaign. Hard times ahead maybe, probably the same without Brexit, but don't underestimate the resolve of those who live in these shores, even though we enjoy a high standard of living compared to many in this world, we have resolve and will come through this. The bad and negative media coverage has become like George Osbornes message during the campaign, the more we hear and the less it doesn't happen, the less we believe the message. We're suffering negative Brexit fatigue and many have stopped listening to the incessant down playing of our future and our country.

 

[portslade seagull]

The article was from August 2016, unless I have missed something?

Personally I can't see any recession in construction, everywhere you look houses are either being renovated, or new builds going up. Have you seen the numbers of tradesmen on the roads these days?

Eyes closed and fingers in his ears unless it's negative of course

 

[portslade seagull]

This thread is full of interesting debate, but until Article 50 gets triggered we really have little idea of which way events will lead us.

We have a referendum result. We know we will be leaving the EU. We are yet to understand or experience the full implications.

Agree with this

 

[Soulman]

This thread is full of interesting debate, but until Article 50 gets triggered we really have little idea of which way events will lead us.

We have a referendum result. We know we will be leaving the EU. We are yet to understand or experience the full implications.

Good post. Agreed

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

It's a total and utter mess and there's no plan to get out of it or where to go next and it's all the Tory's doing. Chaos.

We'll pay back the deficit sometime.... did I really hear the chancellor say this?

1.9 trillion ? and a recent AAA credit rating-just how does that work? with say the likes of you or i,when in relation to the banks..

 

[Two Professors]

Now you can all get together round the NSC Christmas bonfire and sing Kumbaya till you feel better.