[Politics] Brexit – what will happen?

[Sorrel]

There is a Remainer majority in parliament who are looking for an excuse to get a second referendum in. When the vote on the 11th is lost, probably in concord with the EU, a choreographed series of steps will be taken by several MPs:
- MPs will announce that no deal will happen.
- Therefore, they will say, this is an extraordinary time and they must take different decisions to normal
- The EU will offer to delay article 50's leaving date (except Spain who will witter on about Gibraltar before being forced back into line again)
- Remain MPs will seize this as a "lifeline" and say that the people must decide
- They will then try and legislate for a second referendum and an Art 50 extension.
- Big problem for them is what is the question: Remain and then what instead? The deal? No deal? Cake? The Remainers will want the unpopular deal or "no deal" on the ballot. What they don't want is any renegotiation as an option.
- If they can, they will try and pass the legislation for a referendum then, before Christmas. The HoL, who love the EU more than the Commons, will vote anything pro-EU through.
- Will they make the vote binding, unlike the last one? No, because they would be worried that leave could win.

But the above does not include what the Government and Labour will do while the remainers try their hand above. The remainers want chaos and disagreement, as that will encourage people to remain, but the government can't stand by and let laws be passed they don't control - if that happens they are no longer in government. Labour want a GE as well. I don't think the government will lose a vote of confidence, but if the Unionists do a deal with Labour then they just might.

If Labour are clever, they will do a deal for the Norway option with the Ulster Unionists and try and bring down the government and to form a minority administration themselves. However, the second Labour look like getting in government the SNP will instantly stop voting with Labour, using some rubbish excuse or other (as they exist only to disrupt in Westminster) which will complicate matters.

The winner are those who can get things organised first and get something passed
- The remain MPs?
- The Labour Party?
- The hardcore Brexitiers? (though their job is to prevent anything being passed, so we crash out)
- The rump Conservative Party?

My money is on the Remain MPs. And probably a referendum and possibly an election next year.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I agree with a lot of what you say and TM has certainly gone up in my estimation through this whole cluster***.

However, she's a big girl and knew exactly what she was doing when she let her ambition outweigh her common sense and took the job after the referendum. I think we both knew how it would pan out.

You are sure that your assessment of her is completely objective, aren't you Harry

Are you suggesting I want to give her one?

Too old. and too short.

 

[lawros left foot]

Don’t think we will leave.

Brexiteers in the Government have been given enough to hang themselves and have done.

May/whoever is in charge just needs to point out they all ran away and we couldn’t get a deal done.

May has made it pretty clear no Brexit is a realistic thing now.

Let me get this right because, you know, it's looking a little bit hatstand Brian.

You're saying that our "punishment" for doing what the EU actually want us to do would be us losing our currency? Which is impossible. So what are you trying to say?

I might be a little confused here. You think the laws on sovereign currencies are just here for your amusement? Is that it?

Punished how Brian? You're a funny guy....

Just because you’re paranoid, doesn’t mean no one is out to get you

 

[Driver8]

There is a Remainer majority in parliament who are looking for an excuse to get a second referendum in. When the vote on the 11th is lost, probably in concord with the EU, a choreographed series of steps will be taken by several MPs:
- MPs will announce that no deal will happen.
- Therefore, they will say, this is an extraordinary time and they must take different decisions to normal
- The EU will offer to delay article 50's leaving date (except Spain who will witter on about Gibraltar before being forced back into line again)
- Remain MPs will seize this as a "lifeline" and say that the people must decide
- They will then try and legislate for a second referendum and an Art 50 extension.
- Big problem for them is what is the question: Remain and then what instead? The deal? No deal? Cake? The Remainers will want the unpopular deal or "no deal" on the ballot. What they don't want is any renegotiation as an option.
- If they can, they will try and pass the legislation for a referendum then, before Christmas. The HoL, who love the EU more than the Commons, will vote anything pro-EU through.
- Will they make the vote binding, unlike the last one? No, because they would be worried that leave could win.

But the above does not include what the Government and Labour will do while the remainers try their hand above. The remainers want chaos and disagreement, as that will encourage people to remain, but the government can't stand by and let laws be passed they don't control - if that happens they are no longer in government. Labour want a GE as well. I don't think the government will lose a vote of confidence, but if the Unionists do a deal with Labour then they just might.

If Labour are clever, they will do a deal for the Norway option with the Ulster Unionists and try and bring down the government and to form a minority administration themselves. However, the second Labour look like getting in government the SNP will instantly stop voting with Labour, using some rubbish excuse or other (as they exist only to disrupt in Westminster) which will complicate matters.

The winner are those who can get things organised first and get something passed
- The remain MPs?
- The Labour Party?
- The hardcore Brexitiers? (though their job is to prevent anything being passed, so we crash out)
- The rump Conservative Party?

My money is on the Remain MPs. And probably a referendum and possibly an election next year.

Perhaps a second referendum may not have remain as an option. TM’s deal or no deal?

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

The thing is, until we deal with Fake News and malign foreign actors streaming misinformation directly into the minds of the British people we are set for a future of division no matter what.



Deal with the information warfare attacks, and the future will be more united and bright.

 

[Brian Parsons]

Fair enough. Just for the record, I didn't say whether I wanted to stay or leave. I was just responding to a post that claimed the EU didn't care whether we did or not. I believe they would very much like us to stay.

Of course they want us to stay for the simple reason that even the wealthy nations left cannot afford to cover the millions we pay in, so the EU will be poorer and unable to keep their promises of financial subsidies.

Sent from my SM-G925F using Tapatalk

 

[Geestar]

Democracy will win out and we will get what we voted for

Sent from my TA-1020 using Tapatalk

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Democracy will win out and we will get what we voted for

Sent from my TA-1020 using Tapatalk

Which May deal delivers.

better hope it gets through.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

The thing is, until we deal with Fake News and malign foreign actors streaming misinformation directly into the minds of the British people we are set for a future of division no matter what.



Deal with the information warfare attacks, and the future will be more united and bright.

Twice this person has appeared on Newsnight just introduced as Rev Lynn. She is some sort of a reverend/pastor but supports Trump.

[tweet]1068151106683969536[/tweet]



Her Twitter account is full of retweets like this. https://twitter.com/LynnHayter
[tweet]1068110895409233921[/tweet]

 

[maltaseagull]

Can't see her deal being voted through, but there's no majority in Parliament for No Deal. Doubt the EU will offer anything else so a GE or a fresh referendum, which Remain will win is my vote

Is that followed by another referendum a couple of years later when UK gets pissed off with the EU again or a leaver becomes PM?

 

[ManOfSussex]

Twice this person has appeared on Newsnight just introduced as Rev Lynn. She is some sort of a reverend/pastor but supports Trump.

A self appointed pastor by the looks of it. She's been on Newsnight twice in the last week, passionately backing May's deal. I wondered what was wrong her. That is dreadful by Newsnight.

She's just an actress - https://www.mandy.com/actor/profile/marina-hayter

She's even serving at the bar here with Harrison Ford in Star Wars.

 

[kemptown kid]

Democracy will win out and we will get what we voted for

Sent from my TA-1020 using Tapatalk

Problem is 'we' (that is 52 % of those who voted) didn't vote FOR anything and a series of leading leave politicians have walked away after being charged with delivering a workable and attractive deal.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Are you suggesting I want to give her one?

Too old. and too short.

Her or you, Harry

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Her or you, Harry

Her, you fool!

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Twice this person has appeared on Newsnight just introduced as Rev Lynn. She is some sort of a reverend/pastor but supports Trump.

[tweet]1068151106683969536[/tweet]



Her Twitter account is full of retweets like this. https://twitter.com/LynnHayter
[tweet]1068110895409233921[/tweet]

So many news items, so many connections. All one big story, really.

Trump, Brexit, BBC, 55 Tufton Street, Cambridge Analytica, Putin, Ukraine, money laundering, hybrid alternative war.

Reality is basically a box set series at present.

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

Why isn't there a "to hell in a handcart" option.

I voted leadership election/referendum/General election, but who knows. Nothing would surprise me.

Jacob Rees-Mogg for Governor of the Bank of England, that's what I say.

 

[sir albion]

Can't see her deal being voted through, but there's no majority in Parliament for No Deal. Doubt the EU will offer anything else so a GE or a fresh referendum, which Remain will win is my vote

Deluded if you think 2.4 million plus would change their mind because of the usual scaremongering.

They tried this shite before with Obama etc and no way would remain win.No chance of another referendum anyway as that's just plain stupid because of the bitter losers can't except the decision that was as clear as day....In or out of the EU !!

 

[Triggaaar]

And you think those snidey ******** in Brussels will allow that without some sort of punishment, then you are living a very deluded life.

Have you had a bad day?

 

[Triggaaar]

I was thinking of asking exactly the same questions myself today, when I was at work (work being at the tremendous forefront of my mind at the moment, obvs). Top work, Trig

Thank you

 

[Brian Parsons]

Have you had a bad day?

No, I'm just an ardent leaver, I'm also an oldie to boot. One of those few people who remember Britain before the Behemoth that is now the EU. A time when our farmers could grow what they liked and as much as they liked and when we had a huge fishing fleet that could catch what we liked when we liked.
Does that answer your question?

Sent from my SM-G925F using Tapatalk