[Politics] Brexit - Deal we have or Rejoin CU/SM

[Greenbag50]

I get the impression that facts don’t matter to those who read propaganda.

I get the short term impacts of brexit. As has been pointed out by previous posters, it’s a long term positive impact we will see. Trade deals are complex, but ultimately provide deals which are beneficial to both parties.
Globalism is not going away, EU relies on it as much as we do. We will still need our tech to come from Taiwan etc( that’s why China want it, they are running out of young workforce, check demographics). We will still get cheese from France, send them whiskey etc), we import/export cars from EU. Our tilt to indo pacific will pay dividends.
It’s the political union which I voted against. Not trade.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Boris got Brexit done.

And Covid-19, Nadine Dorries as well as standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Uruguay against Vladimir Putin.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

We have a free trade deal with EU.

This simply isn’t true.

For example there’s a limit on access for services. So why did you type this? Do you really believe this is true? What made you believe this is true? Ignorance? Out and out lying? What is it? A quick Google search will show you’re talking nonsense.

 

[Randy McNob]

Stop being so small minded. Have some ambition for our country to trade with the rest of the world freely. There are huge opportunities to tap into. We have a free trade deal with EU and don’t need to be in CU to do that.

it's not an either / or thing. We already had trade deals with the rest of the world as part of the EU. What makes you believe there are other alternative opportunities that don't exist for EU member states? These other countries are waiting in the wings to do special deals with the UK and other countries and exclude the EU for some reason? where are you getting this from?

 

[BadFish]

I get the short term impacts of brexit. As has been pointed out by previous posters, it’s a long term positive impact we will see. Trade deals are complex, but ultimately provide deals which are beneficial to both parties.
Globalism is not going away, EU relies on it as much as we do. We will still need our tech to come from Taiwan etc( that’s why China want it, they are running out of young workforce, check demographics). We will still get cheese from France, send them whiskey etc), we import/export cars from EU. Our tilt to indo pacific will pay dividends.
It’s the political union which I voted against. Not trade.

You were promised sunny uplands and benefits from the moment you left. Now you are happy with a vague promise of a long term positive impact.

How long are you expecting to suffer before things improve?

Why do you expect better trade deals with other countries than you had through the EU? Surely because the market you are offering is so much smaller than the EU market then the trade deals are going to worse?

When are you expecting these trade deal, that are better than the ones you had through the EU?

 

[Greenbag50]

This simply isn’t true.

For example there’s a limit on access for services. So why did you type this? Do you really believe this is true? What made you believe this is true? Ignorance? Out and out lying? What is it? A quick Google search will show you’re talking nonsense.

Trade deals are complex. They do not apply to all industries at all times. The more countries you agree free trade deals with, the more opportunity there is to sell what you produce to that country bi-latterly

 

[Weststander]

Starmer can’t fight the next election on this, so what we need is them to win the next election but not outright so they have to move to some form of proportional representation. This then allows the main parties to come to a best for country solution, (the extreme fringes of Labour (could call themselves Momentum or Socialists) and the Tories (already got their National Conservative brand in place)). Thus allowing proper decisions to be including the fact that Brexit has been a disaster and how we get out of the mess.

Labour won’t do that, throwing away future opportunities to govern alone. From their angle, why gift a load of seats to loathed rivals such as the LibDems and Greens?

 

[Baldseagull]

We still have a EU free trade deal and will continue to trade with our closest geographical neighbours. Our accession to the CTPTT. This a free trade deal which covers 11 countries across the Pacific, https://www.fdf.org.uk/fdf/news-med...ludes a single set,from across the trade bloc.
GDP of these countries is projected to be more than GDP of EU in next 5 years

Great, but what do we sell that they want? I can't see us selling Nissans made in Sunderland to Japan, for instance. It isn't just the size of the market, it's the demand for your products, and shipping shit to the other side of the world negates any fresh produce, or product more easily and cheaply sourced from a more local supplier.
The CTPTT has rules too, all set and agreed by all the other parties, we are just going tagging on without having been party to any of that, so will just get what we are given.

 

[Baldseagull]

I get the short term impacts of brexit. As has been pointed out by previous posters, it’s a long term positive impact we will see. Trade deals are complex, but ultimately provide deals which are beneficial to both parties.
Globalism is not going away, EU relies on it as much as we do. We will still need our tech to come from Taiwan etc( that’s why China want it, they are running out of young workforce, check demographics). We will still get cheese from France, send them whiskey etc), we import/export cars from EU. Our tilt to indo pacific will pay dividends.
It’s the political union which I voted against. Not trade.

There is, sensibly in my opinion, some very select areas for which the EU was the law maker, these are all related to trade and competition in some way. Environmental standards, workers rights, animal welfare standards, consumer rights etc. The point of the political aspect was mostly to try to create a level playing field for members, the EU does not always get things right, and some laws you may disagree with, as I do, but there is some real shit law created in Westminster.

 

[sparkie]

The EU won’t consider a rejoin until we replace our failed unrepresentative electoral system.

The Tories have soiled our reputation, rebuilding trust will take a long time

Barnier - who surely knows directly what the mood is - was much more "can do" about a UK return this week.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Trade deals are complex. They do not apply to all industries at all times. The more countries you agree free trade deals with, the more opportunity there is to sell what you produce to that country bi-latterly

So you agree you were talking crap?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I get the short term impacts of brexit. As has been pointed out by previous posters, it’s a long term positive impact we will see. Trade deals are complex, but ultimately provide deals which are beneficial to both parties.
Globalism is not going away, EU relies on it as much as we do. We will still need our tech to come from Taiwan etc( that’s why China want it, they are running out of young workforce, check demographics). We will still get cheese from France, send them whiskey etc), we import/export cars from EU. Our tilt to indo pacific will pay dividends.
It’s the political union which I voted against. Not trade.

Sadly the UK is known as the desperate party in any trade negotiation. The UK desperately needs trade agreements, whereas most other nations don’t. Not a great basis for negotiation.

You also might have noticed there isn’t a queue at the door for trade deals, the recent US trip by Sunak a case in point. Seems there’s not much demand for any deals either.

Meanwhile there’s plenty of red tape and friction and costs for the “free” trade deal you have with the worlds biggest trading block.

 

[chickens]

Trade deals are complex. They do not apply to all industries at all times. The more countries you agree free trade deals with, the more opportunity there is to sell what you produce to that country bi-latterly

We’ve been through this before. Get on Google Earth, look at the globe, see where we’re positioned on it.

You may note that our fixed geographical location is in Europe.

This matters, because the cost of transport of goods and services often make up a considerable portion of the costs involved.

Some items are perishable, and will not easily travel far without being frozen or at least refrigerated. Even non-perishables cost money to transport, and the further they have to go, the more they cost.

In most industries, we are competing with closer local alternatives. There is nothing that can be done in Britain that can’t be done elsewhere in the world, save for a small number of protected designated products (e.g. Scotch Whisky must come from Scotland. This was previously protected by E.U. law)

For our businesses to be competitive, we need to be competing on price. We can’t easily do that in markets where the competition are local, or driving across a land border and we’re shipping halfway round the world. If we skimp on quality to compensate, we get the business once, then lose it and gain a reputation for producing poor quality goods.

I’m not anti-Britain, I love this country, but in a globalised economy we really should not be erecting trade barriers to our geographical neighbours, it harms us. The greater the geographical distance to a trading partner, the less the trade deal is likely to be worth to our economy.

In cases like Australia where we sent Johnson, and he used the wrong unit of measurement, we’ve negotiated very poorly and effectively sold our own beef market down the river. This is why relying on professional knowledgeable negotiators (experts) is a better bet than wandering in unprepared and saying yes to things.

A trade deal that benefits the other party and beggars us, is pretty far from a triumph. I’d take the E.U. and a smaller slice of a much larger pie any day of the week. And it looks like I’m not alone from the poll results.

 

[Ⓩ-Ⓐ-Ⓜ-Ⓞ-Ⓡ-Ⓐ]

As a business owner not being able to export to the single market due to Brexit bureaucracy has thrown a real spanner in the works for our family. There's this huge market on our doorstep that so far we've been unable to tap into. Would definitely love to rejoin the single market!

 

[WATFORD zero]

We still have a EU free trade deal and will continue to trade with our closest geographical neighbours. Our accession to the CTPTT. This a free trade deal which covers 11 countries across the Pacific, https://www.fdf.org.uk/fdf/news-media/news/2023-news/economic-insights/cptpp-benefits-for-uk-food-and-drink-manufacturers/#:~:text=CPTPP includes a single set,from across the trade bloc.
GDP of these countries is projected to be more than GDP of EU in next 5 years.

I really can't be arsed to write a long reply, so I'll simply quote my replies the last time JCFG/Wokey/etc made very similar posts on the CPTPP deal

That's because Britain doing a trade deal with countries on the other side of the world (which, as your map amply demonstrates is very energy efficient for the 21st century ) that has the potential to make 0.08% growth in a decade really isn't big news, but it really pales into insignificance when compared to the 4% reduction in GDP that we suffered when we ceased the trading deal with our next door neighbours. I suspect that may be why the British press really aren't that interested.

Completely regardless of the effect produce treated or grown with chlorine, hormones, antibiotics and Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) under CPTPP, will have on the British agriculture industry. I suspect it's pure coincidence our laws on genetically modified agriculture were changed a couple of weeks ago.


Obviously apart from the 'Biggest deal since Brexit' soundbites from the normal sources for the terminally naïve

You're absolutely correct. I was mixing up my CPTPP with my APEC (my geography is not good and they're both in the same directionish), hence why I said about trading the largest economic bloc for the 6th biggest trading bloc in the world in my earlier post.

CPTPP aren't even close to the top 10, but on the plus side, we don't have to worry about the US and China yet

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

The EU powers that be definitely want us to rejoin. I don't think they would give us punitive terms.

They would however want some sort of assurance that we're not going to drag them through this again in 5 years time.

For this there needs to be some sort of cross party consensus. If Labour can engineer a very large victory, then much of the ERG will have been kicked out. The Conservatives then have the chance to remodel themselves more like the Conservatives than UKIP.

In 5 years time, both parties could conceivably be going into an election with Labour advocated rejoin and the tories at least saying they wouldn't immediately reverse this. The fly in the ointment is the right wing press will continue to scream for isolationism

On the other hand, 5 more years of youngsters will have come of age, maybe 7 if labour reduce the voting age. And 5 more years of the elderly will have, you know, shuffled off.

 

[nicko31]

As a business owner not being able to export to the single market due to Brexit bureaucracy has thrown a real spanner in the works for our family. There's this huge market on our doorstep that so far we've been unable to tap into. Would definitely love to rejoin the single market!

I actually find its now harder to sell to the EU now than most other places on earth, the other way some exporters in the EU just give a flat NO to selling to the UK (too more hassle). Johnson insisted on rushing through the TCA as fast as possible in December 2019, many Tories denied the need for any proper scrutiny and further extension. Decades for goodwill were destroyed overnight, the Dutch seem to be big winners - very agile and have been stealing our lunch left right and centre.

Brexit is like a slow puncture, our tax take is taking a hit and most of us are living with the consequences of being a less trade intensive nation. Chuck in soaring gilt yields and its a perfect storm. Just wait for the dishonest actors on the hard right to appear and blame a new segment of migrants for all our woes

 

[nicko31]

The EU powers that be definitely want us to rejoin. I don't think they would give us punitive terms.

They would however want some sort of assurance that we're not going to drag them through this again in 5 years time.

For this there needs to be some sort of cross party consensus. If Labour can engineer a very large victory, then much of the ERG will have been kicked out. The Conservatives then have the chance to remodel themselves more like the Conservatives than UKIP.

In 5 years time, both parties could conceivably be going into an election with Labour advocated rejoin and the tories at least saying they wouldn't immediately reverse this. The fly in the ointment is the right wing press will continue to scream for isolationism

On the other hand, 5 more years of youngsters will have come of age, maybe 7 if labour reduce the voting age. And 5 more years of the elderly will have, you know, shuffled off.

We need to introduce a law. If you don't live here and pay taxes here you can't own TV stations, newspapers etc. Cue Barclay, Rothermere, Murdoch etc

 

[Thunder Bolt]

The EU powers that be definitely want us to rejoin. I don't think they would give us punitive terms.

They would however want some sort of assurance that we're not going to drag them through this again in 5 years time.

For this there needs to be some sort of cross party consensus. If Labour can engineer a very large victory, then much of the ERG will have been kicked out. The Conservatives then have the chance to remodel themselves more like the Conservatives than UKIP.

In 5 years time, both parties could conceivably be going into an election with Labour advocated rejoin and the tories at least saying they wouldn't immediately reverse this. The fly in the ointment is the right wing press will continue to scream for isolationism

On the other hand, 5 more years of youngsters will have come of age, maybe 7 if labour reduce the voting age. And 5 more years of the elderly will have, you know, shuffled off.

I would like it to be before I shuffle off, please.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Trade deals are complex. They do not apply to all industries at all times. The more countries you agree free trade deals with, the more opportunity there is to sell what you produce to that country bi-latterly

Of course, which is why the EU had trade deals in place all over the world, and we threw all that away.
Liz Truss boasted about the 60 odd trade deals she’d done, but where, in fact, copy & paste agreements from what we already had, as trade deals are so complex, as you say, they take years to negotiate.