[Politics] Boris Johnson, the new UK Prime Minister

[Gwylan]

Well i though it was a very good speech. I’m no fan of Boris but the EU were never gonna budge with ‘I want a deal’ May so Boris will rattle them, they will have to play poker. .

Why on earth do you think Boris will rattle them? The EU politicians are serious politicians, with a firm grasp of detail. The EU bureaucrats are steeped in the ways and means of Europe and with years and years of trade negotiations behind them. Boris Johnson, on his own admission is not big on detail, has zero negotiating skills and no knowledge of trade agreements.

If it's a poker game, Johnson is the dweeb who's sitting at a table with Nick the Greek and the Cincinatti Kid

 

[Surf's Up]

I see the vast majority of the hate coming from left remainers, still stamping their feet saying it's not fair, If they get their way and have another referendum It will be nothing short of scandalous and will bring British politics even lower than it is today, remember the Brexit side have no reason to be hateful yet, but come November 1st there could be war on the streets. The remainers need to see the bigger picture, and accept the 2016 result or face far worse consequences there is an underlying simmering that will boil over.

#backtheboris

As for this predictable liar campaign against him, you name a politician that doesn't lie to make a point.

How very unpleasant you are.

 

[clapham_gull]

I see the vast majority of the hate coming from left remainers, still stamping their feet saying it's not fair, If they get their way and have another referendum It will be nothing short of scandalous and will bring British politics even lower than it is today, remember the Brexit side have no reason to be hateful yet, but come November 1st there could be war on the streets. The remainers need to see the bigger picture, and accept the 2016 result or face far worse consequences there is an underlying simmering that will boil over.

#backtheboris

As for this predictable liar campaign against him, you name a politician that doesn't lie to make a point.

Politicians tend to lie about the future, the difference with Boris (and Trump) is that they will openly lie about the past and present.

Boris has also been sacked from two very high profile jobs for telling porkies.

Read a few books about it. He is politically very liberal but a complete opportunist. Odd hero for you to have.

He rolled a dice before the referendum and decided to go against Cameron. He was obsessed with Cameron not the EU.

After Brexit as a continuation of his "take advantage of Brexit to be PM" plan, he was discussing with foreign ambassadors he wanted to retain freedom of movement. That didn't work.

This time he has won with the help of the loony right of the Conservative party who voted for him (although they are very politically opposed) because they knew he was popular with the party.

Now it's pay back time and he has been forced to fill his cabinet with them. It's gonna end in tears.

Thatcher would have held him on a tight lead as she did with Archer. A similar character who was very very popular with the members but eventually got found out.

 

[Titanic]

Kwasi Kwarteng has been appointed Minister of State at the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. He will also attend Cabinet (in about an hour's time).

 

[Gritt23]

Sounds like May tbh.

Blimey. There is a lot you can throw at Boris, but "sounds like May" is not one I was expecting to see.

 

[Gritt23]

Why on earth do you think Boris will rattle them? The EU politicians are serious politicians, with a firm grasp of detail. The EU bureaucrats are steeped in the ways and means of Europe and with years and years of trade negotiations behind them. Boris Johnson, on his own admission is not big on detail, has zero negotiating skills and no knowledge of trade agreements.

If it's a poker game, Johnson is the dweeb who's sitting at a table with Nick the Greek and the Cincinatti Kid

You may be underestimating the "unpredictable" card in negotiations.

My experience lies predominantly in negotiating final accounts on construction contracts, and in that environment, the similarity I see with Brexit is "adjudication" being similar to "No deal". Most of the time, neither side wants it to go to adjudication, because it's expensive, time-consuming, and a hugely unpredictable outcome, and that applies to both sides. BUT a key part of a tough negotiation where both sides are a distance apart and getting entrenched, is to make the other side believe you are prepared to go to adjudication, to go nuclear. If you show weakness on the matter, or God forbid, made it clear you were not prepared to take it to adjudication (similar to taking No Deal off the table) then you are screwed. You've shown the weakness that the other side is looking for and you will get absolutely nowhere.

If I had a Boris-type bowl in on the other side of the table, prepared, almost keen, to go down the nuclear route, talking up how strong he sees their side, how they could deal with it comfortably, and come out the other side stronger, then I'd be considerably more uncomfortable, and more likely to shift on our position, than I was with the previous person who was coming back to the table with nothing but asking whether we had budged. We'd say "No, exactly as it was" and they'd scuttle back to their Board of Directors seeing if they could accept our offer this time..

I still can't see a way through this, as I'm not convinced there is the appetite in Parliament to agree to ANYTHING. Not sure they could agree that it's hot today. But don't write off his approach completely, as it may just get some movement in their position, something that May was clearly never going to get.

 

[Gwylan]

If I had a Boris-type bowl in on the other side of the table, prepared, almost keen, to go down the nuclear route, talking up how strong he sees their side, how they could deal with it comfortably, and come out the other side stronger, then I'd be considerably more uncomfortable, and more likely to shift on our position, than I was with the previous person who was coming back to the table with nothing but asking whether we had budged. We'd say "No, exactly as it was" and they'd scuttle back to their Board of Directors seeing if they could accept our offer this time..

I still can't see a way through this, as I'm not convinced there is the appetite in Parliament to agree to ANYTHING. Not sure they could agree that it's hot today. But don't write off his approach completely, as it may just get some movement in their position, something that May was clearly never going to get.

I think what you say is true in a lot of commercial situations but this is slightly different. For a start, the situations aren't even: the EU would lose a little on No Deal but the UK would lose a lot, an awful. Second, the EU knows that, for all the threats, No Deal is a non-starter in the UK as it would never get through parliament. So, Johnson can bluster all he likes but the EU knows that it's going to be a hollow threat.

Finally, I'm not really sure what concessions the EU can make. Maybe they can reduce the divorce bill from £39 billion to £36 billion or something. But protecting Ireland is going to be an absolute red line. Don't forget that the backstop that Johnson moans about was a UK idea, if you remove it, there does need to be something else. The EU is not going to give way on this.

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

I see the vast majority of the hate coming from left remainers, still stamping their feet saying it's not fair, If they get their way and have another referendum It will be nothing short of scandalous and will bring British politics even lower than it is today, remember the Brexit side have no reason to be hateful yet, but come November 1st there could be war on the streets. The remainers need to see the bigger picture, and accept the 2016 result or face far worse consequences there is an underlying simmering that will boil over.

#backtheboris

As for this predictable liar campaign against him, you name a politician that doesn't lie to make a point.

On the liar point, he is a congenital and serial liar. He has been sacked for lying both as a journalist and as a politician. As PM in the current situation he will be under greater scrutiny than he has ever been before, so maybe he won't be able to.

In terms of the job he and his right wing government have to do, I sincerely hope for all our sakes he makes a success of it. I have absolutely no Faith at all that he will. And if it comes to a "no deal", it will be us who suffer, not the EU.

And if it were to come to that, there would be the very real possibility of civil unrest from the other side. I read a report yesterday which said he had been visibly shaken when warned of this possibility by his advisers. He's damned if he does and he's damned if he doesn't.

And of course it will all be the EU's fault - the so-called bully boys of Europe who are doing nothing more than saying we have negotiated a deal and we are sticking with it. Nick Robinson's programme on Brexit last week seemed to me to show that the major figures in the EU have a much better understanding of our position than we do, like understanding, for example, just how important the question of the Irish backstop and Irish border is, particularly for the Irish.

He promises to do Brexit by the end of October, with a no deal if necessary, and to unite the country. The two statements are incompatible. There is a difference between saying what you are going to do..... And actually doing it.

 

[Gritt23]

I think what you say is true in a lot of commercial situations but this is slightly different. For a start, the situations aren't even: the EU would lose a little on No Deal but the UK would lose a lot, an awful. Second, the EU knows that, for all the threats, No Deal is a non-starter in the UK as it would never get through parliament. So, Johnson can bluster all he likes but the EU knows that it's going to be a hollow threat.

Finally, I'm not really sure what concessions the EU can make. Maybe they can reduce the divorce bill from £39 billion to £36 billion or something. But protecting Ireland is going to be an absolute red line. Don't forget that the backstop that Johnson moans about was a UK idea, if you remove it, there does need to be something else. The EU is not going to give way on this.

Don't take what I say as a celebration that all is now fine, we'll sorted now BoJo is in charge. No, there is still a huge mountain to climb, and regardless of who is in charge and what they bring back to Parliament, I believe Parliament will block it.

My point is merely, that the positivity that Boris exudes, the fearless attitude to a No Deal route, does have a certain amount of traction when it comes to negotiations. What could that lead to? Who knows. Possibly .... how the future trade agreement will look between the UK and EU, as even if we leave on No Deal (which I can't see) the EU and the UK would then have a mutual interest in having a trade deal rather than running on WTO for any length of time.

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

Well i though it was a very good speech. I’m no fan of Boris but the EU were never gonna budge with ‘I want a deal’ May so Boris will rattle them, they will have to play poker. Whatever the outcome there will be a lull before a further lull or heaven forbid, a rise! Batton down the hatches, see it out.

Boris thinks he will rattle them, but he and everyone else who threatens no deal and the withdrawal of payments are in my view pathetic.
Who is a no deal going to harm? Britain.
The German car manufacturers who will find it more difficult to sell their cars over here will cop with it, because for them the EU and it's principles are more important than the trade questions, and always have been.

 

[Hampster Gull]

I see the vast majority of the hate coming from left remainers, still stamping their feet saying it's not fair, If they get their way and have another referendum It will be nothing short of scandalous and will bring British politics even lower than it is today, remember the Brexit side have no reason to be hateful yet, but come November 1st there could be war on the streets. The remainers need to see the bigger picture, and accept the 2016 result or face far worse consequences there is an underlying simmering that will boil over.

#backtheboris

As for this predictable liar campaign against him, you name a politician that doesn't lie to make a point.

When there is another referendum it will be one of the greatest achievements of U.K. democracy.

And “war on the streets”. Bring it on, a few thousand gammon from the villages visit London for an afternoon on the beer, shirts off (just like following England abroad) and a few fisty cuffs with the old bill. There is only one winner and will be great tv.

 

[vegster]

This thread is a most enjoyable read.

Thanks Titanic for the thumbs. It is lovely to read a remainer meltdown thread isn't it?

No meltdown from me! Bluster, wiff waff, a bit of Latin, " pinging off " and packing the Cabinet with loons does not solve any of the problems that May faced with Brexit.

It's also hilarious that Johnson's main focus on " Energising " the country is to try to reverse Tory austerity policies that he was part of in government! So, suddenly all that fiscal control goes out the window., like it never existed. like Bobby Ewings shower dream, so Boris is spaffing cash that allegedly does not exist in order to solve problems that May refused to acknowledge.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

I think what you say is true in a lot of commercial situations but this is slightly different. For a start, the situations aren't even: the EU would lose a little on No Deal but the UK would lose a lot, an awful. Second, the EU knows that, for all the threats, No Deal is a non-starter in the UK as it would never get through parliament. So, Johnson can bluster all he likes but the EU knows that it's going to be a hollow threat.

Finally, I'm not really sure what concessions the EU can make. Maybe they can reduce the divorce bill from £39 billion to £36 billion or something. But protecting Ireland is going to be an absolute red line. Don't forget that the backstop that Johnson moans about was a UK idea, if you remove it, there does need to be something else. The EU is not going to give way on this.

I wish I had a quid for everyone who said that the Brexit negotiations were simply akin to business ones. This is often justified by someone telling you how great they are in commercial negotiations, so it's all rather self-serving. (I don't think of all the times I've heard this, anyone has been honest enough to say how badly they managed their own negotiations. It seems that everyone is tough as hell and everyone is a winner! I'm thinking of the old phrase - 'the self-made man who worships his maker'.)


But you are right to point out that the context is different. So different that maybe normal rules don't (fully) apply. In commercial negotiations there's often an alternative: if you don't get the deal then you fall-back to default or look for another one deal. We don't have that (those) alternatives in Brexit. There are no other deals on the table (as yet) and they are never going to be as good trade-wise as the one we've got. There is no default other than the self-harm of no-deal. Now I don't claim to be an expert (and I suspect that our forum as rather few members who have negotiated international trade deals on a multilateral basis) but I reckon that there's in one very big tactical mistake that anyone can make in a negotiation: under-estimating the power of the other side. And let's not forget that the entire Brexit negotiation was based on the oft-repeated (and totally fallacious) premise 'they need us more than we need them'. Let's put the blame where it belongs.

 

[Gwylan]

Don't take what I say as a celebration that all is now fine, we'll sorted now BoJo is in charge. No, there is still a huge mountain to climb, and regardless of who is in charge and what they bring back to Parliament, I believe Parliament will block it.

My point is merely, that the positivity that Boris exudes, the fearless attitude to a No Deal route, does have a certain amount of traction when it comes to negotiations. What could that lead to? Who knows. Possibly .... how the future trade agreement will look between the UK and EU, as even if we leave on No Deal (which I can't see) the EU and the UK would then have a mutual interest in having a trade deal rather than running on WTO for any length of time.

I didn't take it that you were celebrating, you were just drawing on your experience.

And yes, in trade negotiations it is possible to go nuclear but, in this case, Johnson's bluster about no deal is an empty threat - the EU knows he can't it through parliament.

I'm sure that he'd prefer a deal but, as I said in the Brexit thread, the concessions will have to come from the UK - maybe some minor tweaks from the EU - but the big changes from the British side.

 

[beorhthelm]

I think what you say is true in a lot of commercial situations but this is slightly different. For a start, the situations aren't even: the EU would lose a little on No Deal but the UK would lose a lot, an awful. Second, the EU knows that, for all the threats, No Deal is a non-starter in the UK as it would never get through parliament. So, Johnson can bluster all he likes but the EU knows that it's going to be a hollow threat.

Finally, I'm not really sure what concessions the EU can make. Maybe they can reduce the divorce bill from £39 billion to £36 billion or something. But protecting Ireland is going to be an absolute red line. Don't forget that the backstop that Johnson moans about was a UK idea, if you remove it, there does need to be something else. The EU is not going to give way on this.

the problem is if it isnt a hollow threat and Johnson steers us that way. so far EU have assumed we wont go no deal: its irrational therefore we will avoid it. trouble is with a maverick like Johnson is he isn't necessarily rational. i dont know how it can bypass parliament, but if a way is found then he has suitably boxed himself into the corner and possibly believes his own bluff enough to go for it. the irony of this situation is that as much as UK is damaged, Ireland is too. best way to protect them is to remove this scenario, otherwise protecting them may lead to the outcome they want to avoid. conclusion is that something has to change on that particular issue.

 

[Simster]

I'll trust a bloke who actually KNOWS Boris Johnson:
[tweet]1153919832276033536[/tweet]

 

[sahel]

the problem is if it isnt a hollow threat and Johnson steers us that way. so far EU have assumed we wont go no deal: its irrational therefore we will avoid it. trouble is with a maverick like Johnson is he isn't necessarily rational. i dont know how it can bypass parliament, but if a way is found then he has suitably boxed himself into the corner and possibly believes his own bluff enough to go for it. the irony of this situation is that as much as UK is damaged, Ireland is too. best way to protect them is to remove this scenario, otherwise protecting them may lead to the outcome they want to avoid. conclusion is that something has to change on that particular issue.

Forget Brexit for a moment. This is the takeover of party and government by a right wing group committed to some nebulous idea of Britains " greatness". Just read the book "Brittania Unchained" to see what they believein. They seek after the kind of "efficiency" enjoyed in Singapore, South Korea, maybe even China itself. It is a very idealogical vision that dies nog embrace individual difference or fulfillment

 

[BBassic]

From day to day it's difficult to tell if we're more, or less, f**ked than we were the day before.

Head in the sand time for me. Wake me up when it's all over.

 

[Igzilla]

 

[Gritt23]

I didn't take it that you were celebrating, you were just drawing on your experience.

And yes, in trade negotiations it is possible to go nuclear but, in this case, Johnson's bluster about no deal is an empty threat - the EU knows he can't it through parliament.

I'm sure that he'd prefer a deal but, as I said in the Brexit thread, the concessions will have to come from the UK - maybe some minor tweaks from the EU - but the big changes from the British side.

How about if he plays for No Deal by default? Doesn't put a further extension on the table to the EU waiting for them to pull the trigger on us on 31st Oct. The "Mexican Stand-off" approach.