Bleacher Report on football gambling/Tony Bloom

[dwayne]

Its frustrating that bloom is a statistical expert in football we have a team of analysts researching players and studying opposition.,........ Yet we still buy poor players and consistently get tactics wrong in games

 

[El Presidente]

Its frustrating that bloom is a statistical expert in football we have a team of analysts researching players and studying opposition.,........ Yet we still buy poor players and consistently get tactics wrong in games

Frustrating? What do tactics have to do with algorithms. Reading Soccernomics suggests that the manager & tactics are far less important than what most fans think.

 

[Sergei's Celebration]

Frustrating? What do tactics have to do with algorithms. Reading Soccernomics suggests that the manager & tactics are far less important than what most fans think.

The Numbers Game says exactly the same thing.

 

[spring hall convert]

'Lump on England in the last one dayer, its probably bent as there is nothing on it' hint.

Look at England's record in dead rubbers against teams from the sub-continent ove the last 15-20 years. It's scandalous.

 

[spring hall convert]

Why not play an active Moneyball game with The Albion? His data indicates (by player) the odds of success, so assemble a squad capable of promotion. He'll keep losing 3M-5M a year in The Championship, so that can't be his goal as a successful businessman. FFP is a barrier I suppose but wasn't for Leicester or QPR. He'll know the payoff (Prem money plus increased value of the club) vs. the investment necessary and the risks (he has the data apparently), so why aren't we involved in that game?

It looks to me like that's exactly what we are doing, whilst spending within our FFP allowance. A lot of this window's business had a moneyball vibe about it I thought.

 

[Iggle Piggle]

Look at England's record in dead rubbers against teams from the sub-continent ove the last 15-20 years. It's scandalous.

Having read his book, you can see it in action sometimes. There are limited markets in the sub continent to Win / Lose but crucially there is a market on run rate from say overs 11-15. Inexplicably, you can see players straight batting a long hop or full toss and a run rate for 5 overs which would make Boycott look like Botham. Then all of a sudden, it gets smacked around the place (or ''edged'') as if a cloud has been lifted from the batsman.

I keep a very close eye on markets involving the sub continent teams ever since England got matched at 1000-1 to beat Sri Lanka a few years back in a test match. It rained all day and Sri Lanka only had to bat out less than 40 overs. They didn't, England won. They were throwing their wickets away. I'm convinced one day a bet like that will pay a chunk of my mortgage off.

 

[Iggle Piggle]

It looks to me like that's exactly what we are doing, whilst spending within our FFP allowance. A lot of this window's business had a moneyball vibe about it I thought.

100% agree.

It's inconceivable to me that a numbers based nerd type like Bloom wouldn't be using some kind of stat based approach to buying players or at least be a part of the decision making process. I think that he is also aware that a portion of our fans wouldn't take to this so is sensible enough to keep it quiet.

 

[spring hall convert]

I'm convinced one day a bet like that will pay a chunk of my mortgage off.

I'm convinced you are right.

This one has massive question marks against it. Wasn't a dead rubber though. Imagine what price a Pakistan innings defeat would have been at 102-7.

http://www.espncricinfo.com/england-v-pakistan-2010/engine/current/match/426416.html

I suppose one could make the same argument for Eng vs Aus, Headingly '81 and it's the fact that the unthinkable does happen in sport means these markets are ripe for manipulation.

 

[Guinness Boy]

I suppose one could make the same argument for Eng vs Aus, Headingly '81 and it's the fact that the unthinkable does happen in sport means these markets are ripe for manipulation.

You mean the one where a couple of the Aussie team had a quid or so on themselves to lose at 500/1?!

 

[spring hall convert]

100% agree.

It's inconceivable to me that a numbers based nerd type like Bloom wouldn't be using some kind of stat based approach to buying players or at least be a part of the decision making process. I think that he is also aware that a portion of our fans wouldn't take to this so is sensible enough to keep it quiet.

The early window business especially - O'Grady, Hughes, Toko (I've missed one haven't I??). Interestingly none have really set the world alight.

 

[spring hall convert]

You mean the one where a couple of the Aussie team had a quid or so on themselves to lose at 500/1?!

I know. Unthinkable today. I don't think anyone seriously thinks they threw it though do they?

 

[Iggle Piggle]

I'm convinced you are right.

This one has massive question marks against it. Wasn't a dead rubber though.

http://www.espncricinfo.com/england-v-pakistan-2010/engine/current/match/426416.html

I suppose one could make the same argument for Eng vs Aus, Headingly '81 and it's the fact that the unthinkable does happen in sport means these markets are ripe for manipulation.

That game was more bent than a night out with Dale Winton, Graham Norton, Alan Carr and Lewis Hamilton. I think that was the game with the No ball incident (a market which you can't bet on all the more bizarely) when the young bowler got banned.

The dead rubber scenario works in one day games, sadly, the sub continent teams don't seem to mind throwing the odd test match when there is something on it either (the aforementioned Sri Lanka game wasn't a dead rubber either). Whilst we still see Test cricket as the ultimate here, 20/20 and 50 over games seem to have taken over in the sub continent.

 

[Guinness Boy]

I know. Unthinkable today. I don't think anyone seriously thinks they threw it though do they?

I don't think Merv etc would have thrown anything other than a cricket ball, really hard, at someone's head.

It's quite the irony though. Back then they lose from an impossible position, admit to having a few quid on it and everyone has a jolly good laugh and puts it automatically in their top ten sporting moments ever.

A few years later results that are only just a little less incredible get on no one's highlights reel and are apparently devoid of player bets, though everyone suspects they're bent.

 

[spring hall convert]

I don't think Merv etc would have thrown anything other than a cricket ball, really hard, at someone's head.

It's quite the irony though. Back then they lose from an impossible position, admit to having a few quid on it and everyone has a jolly good laugh and puts it automatically in their top ten sporting moments ever.

A few years later results that are only just a little less incredible get on no one's highlights reel and are apparently devoid of player bets, though everyone suspects they're bent.

I know, I know. I was screaming racist at myself. But that's the thing, the fact the virtually impossible can happen is what makes these markets so open to manipulation. Cricket in particular is ridiculously easy if you have enough of the team.

 

[GingerBeerMan]

Can his company bet on Brighton games? How many games last season finished <2.5 goals? No wonder Bloom wanted to keep Garcia on, his boring style of play was probably netting Bloom millions

 

[spring hall convert]

That game was more bent than a night out with Dale Winton, Graham Norton, Alan Carr and Lewis Hamilton. I think that was the game with the No ball incident (a market which you can't bet on all the more bizarely) when the young bowler got banned.

The dead rubber scenario works in one day games, sadly, the sub continent teams don't seem to mind throwing the odd test match when there is something on it either (the aforementioned Sri Lanka game wasn't a dead rubber either). Whilst we still see Test cricket as the ultimate here, 20/20 and 50 over games seem to have taken over in the sub continent.

Yup, yup. yup.

Interesting that as far as I know the result of that test match was never seriously looked at.

Anyway I think we've probably derailed this thread enough.

 

[Vegas Seagull]

Its frustrating that bloom is a statistical expert in football we have a team of analysts researching players and studying opposition.,........ Yet we still buy poor players and consistently get tactics wrong in games

Bloom bets more on a single match than the £30k a year number crunchers sat out at Lancing. If they had offered double or treble they may have some interest from some statistical minded Albion fans who get paid that in other industries....

 

[Spun Cuppa]

You are lucky to get a 103% book on any markets, but I should imagine if the stats are done right, and I should imagine they are, TB's operation might be able to hone it down to say 97% over the long term, and if enough is wagered, that's a big enough return...

 

[The Camel]

Thank you. That article crystalised a few thoughts I had on TB.

Explains some strange body language given in reaction to a question asked at the NWSS meeting as well.

I'm off to sort out a football algorithm of my own.

What was the question?

 

[Pondicherry]

How is Tony getting around this Owners and Directors exclusion from the Football League

They are found to have committed a breach of the prohibition on betting on football in
England and Wales.

Overall though there is nothing new in this. No direct quotes or actual figures - just guesses. I had previously heard from someone who knew an employee at Star Lizard that is was a peculiar place to work. Very long hours, very demanding but very well rewarded financially.