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Betting advice needed ......$56,000 at stake
- Thread starter dale jasper football guru
- Start date
Colossal Squid
Returning video tapes
Let's have a hug
If you like.
What I meant was, he is my ACTUAL brother...
What I meant was, he is my ACTUAL brother...
dale jasper football guru
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- #84
Correct!!!!
dale jasper football guru
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- #85
Can't see Tevez not starting though. Berbatov anytime scorer is 21/20
D
Deleted User X18H
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dale jasper football guru
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- #87
No .....his other brother
Mtoto
Well-known member
- Sep 28, 2003
- 1,858
As others have said, cracking bet. Nothing too ambitious in there, just lots of chances at around evens below that should have been a little shorter. Precisely the sort of bet that bookies hate because there isn't a 5-1 shot in there to push the margin right in their favour. Not sure who you placed it with, but whoever it is and win or lose, it'll be surprising if you're not restricted as a shrewdie next time around.
The problem though is that you're still odds-against to cop the lot (on Betfair, Tevez is even-money on his own, while Barca are 1.5). For as long as that's the case, the market will force you to pay through the nose if you want a decent guaranteed return, because they have the resources and will still fancy their chances of getting one of the last two beat. Fwiw, I don't fancy Man Utd either, but I still think the Betfair market is a pretty fair reflection of their chance, which is about one in three.
Problem two is that while the Barca v ManU odds are pretty fixed - unless Messi, God forbid, turns his ankle in training - the odds on Tevez for top-scorer could still vary wildly depending on whether he/Berba appear on the team sheet, and then during the matches themselves. If Tevez is out for any reason, and Berba starts for ManU with the chance, albeit slim, of a CL Final place if he bags a hat-trick, you're suddenly a 4-1 shot.
To get any real value from hedging, you probably need to be down to the last leg and that, unfortunately, is the odds-on chance that's going to stay that way. You have to get through top scorer first.
That's not to say you shouldn't hedge (I would, for sure) but you have to be realistic about how much you're going to be able to lock in, because it's unlikely to be as much as you think it should be.
Great bet all the same, really hope it comes off.
The problem though is that you're still odds-against to cop the lot (on Betfair, Tevez is even-money on his own, while Barca are 1.5). For as long as that's the case, the market will force you to pay through the nose if you want a decent guaranteed return, because they have the resources and will still fancy their chances of getting one of the last two beat. Fwiw, I don't fancy Man Utd either, but I still think the Betfair market is a pretty fair reflection of their chance, which is about one in three.
Problem two is that while the Barca v ManU odds are pretty fixed - unless Messi, God forbid, turns his ankle in training - the odds on Tevez for top-scorer could still vary wildly depending on whether he/Berba appear on the team sheet, and then during the matches themselves. If Tevez is out for any reason, and Berba starts for ManU with the chance, albeit slim, of a CL Final place if he bags a hat-trick, you're suddenly a 4-1 shot.
To get any real value from hedging, you probably need to be down to the last leg and that, unfortunately, is the odds-on chance that's going to stay that way. You have to get through top scorer first.
That's not to say you shouldn't hedge (I would, for sure) but you have to be realistic about how much you're going to be able to lock in, because it's unlikely to be as much as you think it should be.
Great bet all the same, really hope it comes off.
dale jasper football guru
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- #90
Cheers...... I'm probably going to lay about 10-15k on berbatov to score at anytime at 21/20 providing he's starting
Dr. Notthenineo'clocknews
Remainer
I'm a little bit lost here, (have worked in the betting game for most of my life) The half odds you quote for Barca to reach the final would only apply to an e/w bet? out of interest what was your TOTAL outlay on this bet? ...good luck
dale jasper football guru
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- #92
Yeah my mistake I've just got this 10 fold bet straight up for $135 and ten 9 folds at $8 each so $80 for the 9 folds ........so $215 for the lot
$10k on Berbatov anytime is the correct bet. Had Dad on the phone for HOURS last night doing ALL the sums!
Be carefull with the 'if he's starting' bit though. Even if he's on the bench, you can't risk not covering it. Worth waiting until the team news is public though, because if he is on the bench, surely you'll get much higher odds, for him to score? Perhaps if hes a sub, they'll drift out to 2/1, and you might only feel the need to stake $5k?
Mtoto
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- Sep 28, 2003
- 1,858
Particularly if you're betting from the States, you should also make sure that you'll be able to get that much on at such short notice. The teamsheet may not be out until half an hour before kick-off. If it's the same bookie you had the bet with, they might even try to restrict you, or shave the odds, because if their trading department is on the ball, they will have their eye on this bet already.
Gary Leeds
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- May 5, 2008
- 1,526
the question I have to ask though is how many bets have you placed this year that have gone down the pan?
Good luck though, will you be sharing your tips for next season?
Good luck though, will you be sharing your tips for next season?
dale jasper football guru
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- #96
the question I have to ask though is how many bets have you placed this year that have gone down the pan?
Good luck though, will you be sharing your tips for next season?
This years has actually been my best ever believe it or not. my wife loves it, as it goes straight into her bank acc
dale jasper football guru
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- #97
Just checked on bet365 and the max i can lay on berbatov straight is $18,150 if I wanted....so no problem there .....just gotta wait and see if he's starting. Odds have shortened though from 21/20 to 10/11
Mackenzie
Old Brightonian
Great position to be in. I'm glad you are going to hedge some of this, even if you end up with a quarter of the possible return, its still a fantastic win. If I could offer any advice, it would be not to be greedy, as my old dad says 'little fishes taste sweet'
Good luck, and well done.
Good luck, and well done.
Brownstuff
Well-known member
I take it you mean 'back' Berbatov to score anytime
As a risk lover I tend to let things ride but as painful and as sensible as it is, hedging is the way to go if you have the dosh
sten_super
Brain Surgeon
Ferguson has announced that Berbatov will PLAY (he's not specifically said start, but that is what he seems to be inferring).
BBC Sport - Man Utd will field a 'strong' team against Blackpool
BBC Sport - Man Utd will field a 'strong' team against Blackpool