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Betting advice needed ......$56,000 at stake



sam86

Moderator
Feb 18, 2009
9,947
Can't agree Sam, why would he risk them with the league already won, the CL Final to come and the league having already provided permission for United to play the stiffs?

Simply because they've been on fire together recently. A 14 day break of them not playing up top together probably hasn't happened for months! It doesn't sound much to me and you, but 14 days is A LOT for players like Rooney and Hernandez who have been playing together twice a week for the past few months.
 




OSRGull

Well-known member
Jan 20, 2011
5,298
N1A
I tell you what, that really is one f***ing good bet :lolol:

But I reckon with the Champions League final being in England, I can see United nicking it.
 


sam86

Moderator
Feb 18, 2009
9,947
I know this goes against everything I've been saying to you for the last month, about you HAVING to lay off....

...but...

ON FIRE Tevez, in possibly his last City game, up against a Bolton back four already on the beach..

or

Match rusty Berbatov, up against a Blackpool side fighting for their LIVES, and defending everything grimly, knowing that relegation is going down to goal difference...

But on the other hand (yes, that's about three hands, but that's how tough the decision is!), if Tevez is unhappy at City (I don't believe the reports today), he may not want to put himself into any risky situations that could get him badly injured and therefore not help a transfer away from City...
 


hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
62,769
Chandlers Ford
We are assuming that the red faced old prick will play Berbatov so as not to risk Rooney and Hernandez. Have we considered just how MUCH he might take the piss with his selection? Is it concievable that he'd also not want to risk even his third choice striker getting injured?
 


hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
62,769
Chandlers Ford
But on the other hand (yes, that's about three hands, but that's how tough the decision is!), if Tevez is unhappy at City (I don't believe the reports today), he may not want to put himself into any risky situations that could get him badly injured and therefore not help a transfer away from City...

What, like last night, when he ran the game, and scored two belters?
 






Betfair Bozo

Well-known member
Jul 24, 2007
2,107
Yes, I agree with Hans. He may rest the likely CL Final bench as well as the starters. I can't see Rooney and Hernandez playing anyway. Basically, if DJ is going to hedge somehow he'll need to be logged on for the team news.
 


Jan 14, 2008
289
Windsor ontario
This bet couldve been for $115,000 as I tried to do colchester to beat Swindon aswell which happened, all be it an injury time winner for the U's but bet365 wouldn't let me do it !!!!!

Not complaining though
 
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Tom Hark Preston Park

Will Post For Cash
Jul 6, 2003
72,380
We are assuming that the red faced old prick will play Berbatov so as not to risk Rooney and Hernandez. Have we considered just how MUCH he might take the piss with his selection? Is it concievable that he'd also not want to risk even his third choice striker getting injured?

Nice thing is tho, there's plenty of time between starting line-ups being announced and start of play to have alternative strategies all worked out and ready to go. Just need to be ready to get those bets on between, say, 15:45 and 16:00.

Wouldn't fancy having any bet riding on Berbatov's performance tho. Utterly flakey. Can go months without scoring then decide to score three for fun.
 


hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
62,769
Chandlers Ford
To be fair to them, I wouldn't have taken any bets on Swindon losing a game last season either.
 


Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,321
Back in Sussex
Nice thing is tho, there's plenty of time between starting line-ups being announced and start of play to have alternative strategies all worked out and ready to go. Just need to be ready to get those bets on between, say, 15:45 and 16:00.

As soon as the line-ups are announced the odds will move. The bookies (and Betfair punters) won't leave thing as they are if, for example, one player is not selected and thus has zero chance of adding to his current haul.
 




hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
62,769
Chandlers Ford
As soon as the line-ups are announced the odds will move. The bookies (and Betfair punters) won't leave thing as they are if, for example, one player is not selected and thus has zero chance of adding to his current haul.

Exactly. Its all well and good thinking you can wait until then to see if Berbatov is starting. WHat if you wait and find that he IS but Tevez ISN'T? You'd be screwed.
 


Betfair Bozo

Well-known member
Jul 24, 2007
2,107
I didn't mean in terms of the top scorer bet but in terms of the Berbatov anytime scorer bet I mentioned previously. In relation to the exchanges you may get a slightly bigger price about that eventuality if United name a very understrength side.
 


hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
62,769
Chandlers Ford
I didn't mean in terms of the top scorer bet but in terms of the Berbatov anytime scorer bet I mentioned previously. In relation to the exchanges you may get a slightly bigger price about that eventuality if United name a very understrength side.

I'm convinced that your shout is the way to go.

$10k on Berbatov to score anytime (about 5/2?), covers losses if he beats Tevez, and acts as a bonus if he equals him or if he scores, but Tevez OUTscores him.

A further benefit of this way, is that if for whatever reason Berbatov doesn't play, then he will be a non-runner and the stake will be safe.
 




Tom Hark Preston Park

Will Post For Cash
Jul 6, 2003
72,380
As soon as the line-ups are announced the odds will move. The bookies (and Betfair punters) won't leave thing as they are if, for example, one player is not selected and thus has zero chance of adding to his current haul.

For this particular bet at this particular stage tho you're just betting on the individual tally on that one match for those two players shirley? The 'zero chance of adding to his current haul' doesn't come into it?
 




Betfair Bozo

Well-known member
Jul 24, 2007
2,107
Careful though, if he plays any part in the game he is not a NR. Comes on for last five mins and bets STAND. (At least with the vast majority of firms.)
 


For this particular bet at this particular stage tho you're just betting on the individual tally on that one match for those two players shirley? The 'zero chance of adding to his current haul' doesn't come into it?

But if (as mentioned) Berbatov starts and Tevez doesn't, Berbatov's chances of being top scorer increase dramatically, and you won't be able to get any half-decent odds on it. Even Berbatov starting will reduce the odds on him being top scorer (as all he's got to do is match Tevez's goal haul); similarly if he's announced in the starting line up his odds of scoring at any point in the game are likely to drift in as well (as preferred to his odds when coming off the bench for only part of the game).
 




Colossal Squid

Returning video tapes
Feb 11, 2010
4,906
Under the sea
Isn't it funny, this makes no difference to my life and yet I find myself rooting for you and your bet to come in. Is it just the desire to see the bookies beaten? Wishing good things upon a fellow fan? General brotherly love?

I just want it to happen! It's exciting
 


Durlston

"You plonker, Rodney!"
Jul 15, 2009
10,017
Haywards Heath
If you do Berbatov first goal on Sunday for Man.Utd vs Blackpool; he scores the opener and then gets two or three, Betfred will DOUBLE or TREBLE your odds. Winnings can mount up fairly quickly. I did that with Shane Long for Reading last night and got 12/1 instead of 6/1. Otherwise I think Berbatov to score anytime is probably the best wager but not before knowing the teams.
 


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