Average points needed to go up!

[sam86]

For the record, the points total of the team in 2nd for the past 6 seasons was; 86, 89, 82, 85, 79, 86.

So an average of 84.5.

So STID's idea of another 20 points (meaning we'll be on 82), would (according to these pointless sums) mean we finish third.

 

[GOM]

I thinks it's fair to say that if you end up on more points than the team in 3rd place that there is a good chance you could be in the top two.

Regardless of number of points.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

I'm with Tricky Dicky on this. If you finish 7 points ahead of third, six of those points weren't needed

 

[Tricky Dicky]

I thinks it's fair to say that if you end up on more points than the team in 3rd place that there is a good chance you could be in the top two.

Regardless of number of points.

Absolutely, thank you.

As per my last answer - I think we're looking at it in 2 different ways. Some are trying to slot us into a top 3 of teams other than us, and I agree if you beat that third team and you could then be third yourself, but if we are one of the teams in the table already, above third, then your must be first or second.

 

[Bomber_1901]

I'm with Tricky Dicky on this. If you finish 7 points ahead of third, six of those points weren't needed

Well if those 6 points are defeats to Huddersfield and Saints instead of wins it could be a problem!

 

[nwgull]

To simplify things, I reckon stick with the 2 points per game theory. If our rivals each managed this in the last 13-15 games then BMuff would have 84, with SCC and Hudds both on 82. I really can't see them getting any more than this so 83 points is probably the finishing line as far as promotion is concerned.

 

[blackprince]

In the last six seasons, the number of points achieved by the third placed team has been 79 (04/05), 76 (05/06), 83 (06/07), 80 (07/08), 87 (08/09) and 85 (09/10). The average number of points over those six seasons is 81.66 as posted by Seagulls Till I Die. However, that average hides an upward trend in the points achieved. Taking two seasons at a time, the average for seasons 04/5 and 05/6 is 77.5, for seasons 06/7 and 07/8 it is 83.75 and for seasons 08/9 and 09/10 the average is 86 points. This suggests that at least 8 wins and a draw are necessary to ensure automatic promotion.

 

[CliveWalkerWingWizard]

In the last six seasons, the number of points achieved by the third placed team has been 79 (04/05), 76 (05/06), 83 (06/07), 80 (07/08), 87 (08/09) and 85 (09/10). The average number of points over those six seasons is 81.66 as posted by Seagulls Till I Die. However, that average hides an upward trend in the points achieved. Taking two seasons at a time, the average for seasons 04/5 and 05/6 is 77.5, for seasons 06/7 and 07/8 it is 83.75 and for seasons 08/9 and 09/10 the average is 86 points. This suggests that at least 8 wins and a draw are necessary to ensure automatic promotion.

Your sample size is too small ! you can't say there is a trend, this year the points for promotion will be lower because it is a tighter league (so the Standard deviation of points will be lower). I think 83 (ish) will be the finishing line - anyway we should get 88-90.

 

[CliveWalkerWingWizard]

To simplify things, I reckon stick with the 2 points per game theory. If our rivals each managed this in the last 13-15 games then BMuff would have 84, with SCC and Hudds both on 82. I really can't see them getting any more than this so 83 points is probably the finishing line as far as promotion is concerned.

Is probably the correct answer ! (or less)

 

[Everest]

For the record, the points total of the team in 2nd for the past 6 seasons was; 86, 89, 82, 85, 79, 86.

So an average of 84.5.

So STID's idea of another 20 points (meaning we'll be on 82), would (according to these pointless sums) mean we finish third.

Unless we finish with a better GD in the third season

 

[Horton's halftime iceberg]

We are getting close to a play off of place if the last few years are to go by

2004-05 Luton 98 Hull 86
Last play-off place Hartlepool 71

2005-06 Southend 82 Colchester 79
Last play-off place Swansea 71

2006-07 Scunthorpe 91 Bristol City 85
Last play-off place Oldham 75

2007-08 Swansea 92 Nottingham Forest 82
Last play-off place Southend 76 (Albion 7th on 69)

2008-09 Leicester 96 Peterborough 89
Last play-off place Scunthorpe 76

2009-10 Norwich 95 Leeds 86
Last play-off place Huddersfield 80

 

[Heffle Gull]

This is all very well, but are we safe from relegation yet?

 

[Hyperion]

For me, 9 wins is a must. We have to be aiming at around 90 points

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

We might need an additional 6 points if Plymouth get liquidated as Scumhampton have only played them once and lost whereas we did the double over them , so theoretically Scumhampton could only be 4 points behind us.

 

[patchamalbion]

i reckon another 7 wins will do it

 

[Guy Fawkes]

But it's the second placed team you should be working out. 3rd place only gives you a play off position.

That would be for the title though, not just for promotion as was the OP's point

To finish above the team in third means you have to be 1st or 2nd, otherwise that team wouldn't have been 3rd but in 4th place.

 

[Skint Gull]

Oh my god some people really are going MENTAL! If you get enough points to finish above the team with enough points to be THIRD then you TAKE THEIR PLACE as the THIRD team in the division.

In order to go up automatically you have to get enough points to TAKE THE PLACE of the team who would otherwise finish SECOND!

If last season whoever finished 3rd had 75 points and whoever finished second has 80, had we had actually done a shit lot better and got 76 we would have got more than the 3rd place team but not enough to be second and go up! How do people not get this?

 

[Waynflete]

I think we should win as many games as possible for the rest of the season, lose a few games as possible, and hope we have enough to go up. Simples.

 

[Lord Bracknell]

Looking back at past seasons is irrelevant.

Let's look at this season.

Average points per game played so far ...

Brighton & Hove Albion 2.00
AFC Bournemouth 1.76
Huddersfield Town 1.70
Southampton 1.68
Peterborough United 1.66
Milton Keynes Dons 1.53
Charlton Athletic 1.52

Keep this up for the rest of the season and the final points tally will be:-

Brighton & Hove Albion 92
AFC Bournemouth 81
Huddersfield Town 78
Southampton 77
Peterborough United 76
Milton Keynes Dons 70
Charlton Athletic 70

What makes anyone think that TWO teams will put on a big spurt and require us to score anything like mid-eighties points?

We could even be promoted with less than 80 points.

18 points from 15 games ... 1.20 points per game ... to achieve that, we have to play only slightly better than Tranmere Rovers (in 18th place) have managed so far.

 

[Exiled in Exeter]

Albion currently have 62 points from 31 games and still have the potential to gain a further 45 points.