LamieRobertson
Not awoke
Oh yes....I'm just looking to enjoy the journey rather than think about the destination just yet
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[Football] Are we safe already
- Thread starter LVGull
- Start date
Oh yes....I'm just looking to enjoy the journey rather than think about the destination just yet
Blue Valkyrie
Not seen such Bravery!
No, not quite.
My formula is number of points team in 18th have + number of games that team has to play + 1.
So, (Southampton) 9 + 23 + 1 = 33 points for survival.
We need 4 more wins, and then we can declare 'safe'.
My formula is number of points team in 18th have + number of games that team has to play + 1.
So, (Southampton) 9 + 23 + 1 = 33 points for survival.
We need 4 more wins, and then we can declare 'safe'.
- Thread starter
- #103
I have felt it again, and have called it again. People still doubt me.
GoingUp
Well-known member
No I don't think we can get complacent.
Also we need to finish as high as possible to show some progression, which will help entice new players to sign for us in the summer.
Also we need to finish as high as possible to show some progression, which will help entice new players to sign for us in the summer.
nicko31
Well-known member
Does anyone remember Hull getting on I think 26 or 27 pts at Christmas and still got relegated? We are not safe and momentum can change in football.
Great start to season, few would have predicted better at this stage
Great start to season, few would have predicted better at this stage
kjgood
Well-known member
Safe on 21 points? you have to be joking. May I remind you all that we support Brighton and Hove Albion, although we have had a great start and are a few points in front on the staying up tracker, we never do things the easy way. Lets revisit this question in April next year.
Steve_PPP
Active member
Interesting formula.... but the bottom three are all marching along at the poor rate of 0.6 PPG so far (with Udders, Cardiff and Palace not going much better). Multiply 0.6 by 38 games and you get 22.8 points, ten points less than your theory....
In reality, the bottom 3 surely have to pick up the pace at some point, so it'll be somewhere in between. I'd be very surprised if 30pts wasn't safe this year.
Definitely not safe, by any stretch of the imagination.
But, the table does look rather pretty today. It's started to settle in a 4-tier pattern:
Tier 1 (Leaders) = Man City, Liverpool
<6 point gap>
Tier 2 (Champions League Battle) = Spurs, Chelsea, Arsenal
<8 point gap>
Tier 3 (Mid-table) = Everton, Bournemouth, Man U, Leicester, Us, Watford, Wolves, West Ham
<5 point gap>
Tier 4 (Relegation Battle) = Newcastle, Palace, Cardiff, Huddersfield, Southampton, Burnley, Fulham
But it's so early that things could definitely change. For example, I wouldn't be surprised (but would be disappointed) to see Newcastle and Palace elevate themselves into the mid-table. But there is definitely a pattern that's been established now, and it's a little different from last season where the table beneath the top 6-8 took longer to separate out into a genuine mid-table group vs relegation battle group.
But, the table does look rather pretty today. It's started to settle in a 4-tier pattern:
Tier 1 (Leaders) = Man City, Liverpool
<6 point gap>
Tier 2 (Champions League Battle) = Spurs, Chelsea, Arsenal
<8 point gap>
Tier 3 (Mid-table) = Everton, Bournemouth, Man U, Leicester, Us, Watford, Wolves, West Ham
<5 point gap>
Tier 4 (Relegation Battle) = Newcastle, Palace, Cardiff, Huddersfield, Southampton, Burnley, Fulham
But it's so early that things could definitely change. For example, I wouldn't be surprised (but would be disappointed) to see Newcastle and Palace elevate themselves into the mid-table. But there is definitely a pattern that's been established now, and it's a little different from last season where the table beneath the top 6-8 took longer to separate out into a genuine mid-table group vs relegation battle group.
albionfan37
Well-known member
yes deffo safe theres not enough teams thatll win consistently enough to drag us into the mire
Cowfold Seagull
Fan of the 17 bus
Oh yes....I'm just looking to enjoy the journey rather than think about the destination just yet
Wise words, it would take a foolish man to predict anything less than half way through the season. Things can all change so quickly.
Squad is so good now that it would surely take something monumental to see us go down
Touch wood
Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
Yes, but our manager isn't likely to make the players sit in the penalty area at half time while he gives them a fist-pumping public lecture, is he?
Oh, and BTW, why are we considering if we are safe now? Has the 'Teams who can't catch us' thread surfaced somewhere that I have missed? - because until it does............................
The_Viper
Well-known member
38 points historically has been the real magic number, not 40 if you look at the stats. Long way to go yet.
B-right-on
Living the dream
I think Burnley have enough nouse to get out of the poo and be relatively safe before the business end of the season starts
The Clown of Pevensey Bay
Well-known member
That’s four wins and two draws. We’ve got the entire bottom four still to play at home.
Fulham?
blue-shifted
Banned
And I seriously doubt anyone will need 38 to survive. 34 should do it this year I reckon
34 was enough last season, I suspect it will be a few less this year.
The Clown of Pevensey Bay
Well-known member
Ok, four of the bottom five