[Politics] Are Labour going to turn this country around?

[LamieRobertson]

5/10/30y UK bond interest rates going mental recently, similar to US etc. so not a Labour phenomenon, but still going to make life difficult for them...

Edit: To clarify, not Truss levels of mentalness , just normal levels.

Worse than Truss

The yield on the 10-year UK gilt - a benchmark measure of the cost of government borrowing - has climbed today to its highest level since the global financial crisis in 2008, jumping about 10 basis points to 5.34pc.

As bad as?

The cost of long-term government borrowing has also risen further after hitting its highest level since 1998 on Tuesday, while the yield on inflation-linked 30-year gilts has risen to 2pc for the first time since the sell-off in the wake of the mini-Budget in 2022.

 

[ROSM]

I want to see the investigations identify who covered up what and to then be brought to account. I'd like to see recommendations on sentencing guidelines being radically changed as someone buggering a child getting 3 years is so wrong it defies belief. I haven't seen the output of the report but equally haven't seen many of the clergy being prosecuted for cover ups rather than just resigning on a cushy pension.

Here is a link to the main statutory report and all the additional reports produced

https://www.iicsa.org.uk/reports-recommendations/publications.html

 

[abc]

No worries. My post was badly worded after a scotch or two!

I did look at the HSE’s latest report on fatalities in agriculture and was struck by two interesting facts. Firstly, 40% of those fatalities happened to people in the 65+ age category, secondly, they include all deaths in agriculture (such as ramblers being crushed by cows), not just workers so included 4 children who were sadly died.

Appreciated and it is a subject close to my heart for a reason Id rather not go into on here. One death is ultimately too many in any industry. A death in construction is equally as appalling as a death in farming. I reacted to a negative post about farming partly because I know something about it.

There are, to be blunt, many ways to kill yourself in farming but the root causes are people working too long hours (tiredness leads to shortcuts and mistakes), too many children working on family farms after school etc (because the family cannot afford to pay labour), and lone working.
I have spoken to many groups of farmers about safety and when some in the audience are literally fighting for the survival of their business, I can see them mentally struggle to take on health and safety advice as well.

Mental health is becoming a huge issue in farming (farmers but also their families) which is reflected in the increasing suicide rate (one problem being is there is no such thing as a cry for help with a shotgun and all farmers have shotguns). We know the IHT change (whether right or wrong) has already claimed several lives. There are now, thankfully, charities dealing purely with mental health support for farmers.

Farmers Weekly have a longstanding campaign called 'Dying to Feed You' to raise awareness within the industry. I hope the general public, consumers of British food, will also become aware in time.

 

[pb21]

Worse than Truss

The yield on the 10-year UK gilt - a benchmark measure of the cost of government borrowing - has climbed today to its highest level since the global financial crisis in 2008, jumping about 10 basis points to 5.34pc.

As bad as?

The cost of long-term government borrowing has also risen further after hitting its highest level since 1998 on Tuesday, while the yield on inflation-linked 30-year gilts has risen to 2pc for the first time since the sell-off in the wake of the mini-Budget in 2022.

Well higher absolute terms, but not in terms of the increase/volatility/mentalness, when the rates were increasing 10%/day (into some kind of doom cycle), currently only ~2% increases…

 

[Is it PotG?]

Well higher absolute terms, but not in terms of the increase/volatility/mentalness, when the rates were increasing 10%/day (into some kind of doom cycle), currently only ~2% increases…

Nice spin, you ARE Alastair Campbell and I claim my £5.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Well higher absolute terms, but not in terms of the increase/volatility/mentalness, when the rates were increasing 10%/day (into some kind of doom cycle), currently only ~2% increases…

Good point..although it’s happening over a longer period than the Trussmeister…the only counter to that is events are only unfolding …of course it could get better (I hope!)

 

[pb21]

Nice spin, you ARE Alastair Campbell and I claim my £5.

To confirm, high bond rates are not good. Also, the Labour budget probably in someway has resulted in them being higher than they would otherwise be. However they have been trending higher since late 2020 when they were effectively 0%, similar to others.

What is arguably worse is putting out a budget that results in bond rates increasing by a mental 10%/day such that the BoE has to intervene to prevent CHAOS.

Either way, not sure this is going to go away easily....

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I appreciate your considered response. It is an emotive issue amongst the farming industry because it will simply mark the end of many family farms.

The owners may be asset rich but their asset is the land, animals and machinery that enable them to farm. If they pay IHT on passing the business down to the next generation then they will have to sell the assets and that is the end. The average family farming business does not generate enough income to borrow the IHT and service it. The IHT exemption was less a tax 'break' and more a necessity.

But in truth, this issue is the final straw for an industry that has been hammered by successive governments and legislators who have no policy for the future of food production. Food production in the UK is becoming unviable, which is an extremely serious problem for us all and will eventually see higher prices and shortages. So you are right in suggesting (I think) that there needs to be a coordinated approach to solving this problem. If changes to IHT were part of an overall policy that could deliver sustainable (financial and eco) food production then fair enough. This is, of course, not the case.

Sadly, neither this or previous governments understand what 'coordinated' means.

I understand your overall views about IHT in general but you might consider whether it is right to lump the farming issue in with the wider one?

Thanks. Appreciated. Sorry if I got excessively aeriated.

 

[luge]

I think some of your cost/benefit analysis is slightly skewed. Old people benefitting from the savings they have made all their life while young people do not - that isn't because the system is skewed towards old people, it's because young people haven't yet had the time to do it. It's certainly true that someone who has taken advantage of 40 years' pension benefits and ISA opportunities is better of than a 20 year old who hasn't, but that's hardly the government's fault. The young will (or should) get their turn at the same benefits.

I don't agree that being older and more often ill qualifies as a benefit, even if treatment is free.

House prices? If the government had simply got out of the market and stopped trying to skew it in all directions, it would have been better IMO. I agree that prices have been artificially inflated, and those on the housing ladder (in the right parts of the country) have benefitted - though, as you say, not until they sell up and buy somewhere smaller.

As for the young ones, there are far more SENs around now than there were back in the day. Assuming that they are all needed, this is a massive advantage that young people have over older people - older people did not have such generous access to SENs, so (unless there is genuinely a huge increase in the number of children with Special educational Problems) they didn't have a quarter of the help that children do now. Remember that baby boomers (much maligned though they are) were educated in classes of 50 with 1 teacher and 0 educational assistants.

I agree that childcare prices are ridiculous. They need to cut the staffing ratios, as the Tories under Truss were planning to do.

From the late 1970's to about 2000, we lived in an era of growth and prosperity and rising wages. Since then, we have stagnated. Various reasons for that, but lack of tax and lack of government action isn't one of them IMO. Governments nowadays feel that everything is their responsibility; the 7% of kids out of school that you mention is one of the things that is nothing to do with the government, that's entirely the fault of the parents (though the closing of schools during covid certainly contributes to that particular malaise.) Governments are hopeless at generating wealth; they always have been. What is needed, if wealth is your aim, is for the government to step back and stop putting obstacles in business's way.

I wasn't saying that the young were paying for the old - rather that our entire social security is paid for by working people - that's our model. I am aware you only qualify if you paid in enough during your lifetime, but we run the risk of that breaking soon enough because of the all of the things above.

i don't disagree on the premise of only being able to save when you can and it natural to benefit from it - but it is ultimately a tax boon and very efficient way to not pay what is due. Not poo pooing it, because i have just started doing it myself - largely because i had no way of saving properly for retirement.

SEN - in the middle of that minefield myself and that deserves a whole thread on its own - but the upshot of it all is that the schools just can't cope.

Governments are shit at doing growth, but f*** me Brexit did not help.

The point of the post was to show the many issues that are prescient on the minds of alot of people - alot of this created by last government, and in reality would have happened whatever the administration because, politics.

 

[Chicken Run]

A couple of Jpegs you've created with no source or context and absolutely nothing to do with the thread

As always, your contribution is greatly appreciated

Well as you know those posts weren’t you, and as far as source is concerned those delightful posts can be found in the vast library of past posts that you spend your slowly expiring time on this mortal coil delving into

 

[LamieRobertson]

Thanks. Appreciated. Sorry if I got excessively aeriated.

Nothing like a bit of excessive aeration

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Nothing like a bit of excessive aeration

I'm a man of seething passions.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I appreciate your considered response. It is an emotive issue amongst the farming industry because it will simply mark the end of many family farms.

The owners may be asset rich but their asset is the land, animals and machinery that enable them to farm. If they pay IHT on passing the business down to the next generation then they will have to sell the assets and that is the end. The average family farming business does not generate enough income to borrow the IHT and service it. The IHT exemption was less a tax 'break' and more a necessity.

But in truth, this issue is the final straw for an industry that has been hammered by successive governments and legislators who have no policy for the future of food production. Food production in the UK is becoming unviable, which is an extremely serious problem for us all and will eventually see higher prices and shortages. So you are right in suggesting (I think) that there needs to be a coordinated approach to solving this problem. If changes to IHT were part of an overall policy that could deliver sustainable (financial and eco) food production then fair enough. This is, of course, not the case.

Sadly, neither this or previous governments understand what 'coordinated' means.

I understand your overall views about IHT in general but you might consider whether it is right to lump the farming issue in with the wider one?

I will reply properly to you elegant narrative later. In a meeting now....

 

[slimes]

Best odds on most seats won next general election..

Conservatives 13/8
Labour 7/4
Reform 5/2
Liberal 66/1

A proper 3 horse race.

Benefits of immigration outweigh the cost...but.. is it a false economy?

as there is no structure..

We're gaining an extra million each year!

The possibility of the retirement age will certainly go up to 70.

 

[Weststander]

To confirm, high bond rates are not good. Also, the Labour budget probably in someway has resulted in them being higher than they would otherwise be. However they have been trending higher since late 2020 when they were effectively 0%, similar to others.

View attachment 194796

What is arguably worse is putting out a budget that results in bond rates increasing by a mental 10%/day such that the BoE has to intervene to prevent CHAOS.

Either way, not sure this is going to go away easily....

For anyone disinterested in this subject, it has a very direct effect on mortgage rate prospects (the timeframe for variable rates and fixed rate deals falling.

Economists felt Truss’s incompetence added 0.75% to UK mortgage rates once the dust settled.

 

[Weststander]

Best odds on most seats won next general election..

Conservatives 13/8
Labour 7/4
Reform 5/2
Liberal 66/1

A proper 3 horse race.

Benefits of immigration outweigh the cost...but.. is it a false economy?

as there is no structure..

We're gaining an extra million each year!

The possibility of the retirement age will certainly go up to 70.

7/4’s tempting, as the other 2 split the same vote.

 

[slimes]

7/4’s tempting, as the other 2 split the same vote.

If Boris Johnson switches to Reform?

 

[A1X]

If Boris Johnson switches to Reform?

Farage won't be interested and what he says goes, Boris will be too much of a potential threat

 

[Weststander]

Farage won't be interested and what he says goes, Boris will be too much of a potential threat

Musk’s in charge, Farage is just a puppet (from Thunderbirds).

 

[Lenny Rider]

It’s funny isn’t it how we all see things differently, me for example found these two posts by a long time member directed at another to be rather vile

View attachment 194784View attachment 194785

And this is the point, we are all different I get that, but giving these people any kind of your time is a classic waste of oxygen.

Dare I ask, are they still on NSC?