86 Points will be enough

[Betfair Bozo]

Sporting Index who aren't looking at this through our understandably partisan eyes have us at 92.5-93.5 pts and Hudds at 84.5-85.5. I suspect Hudds will continue to amass around their season average of 1.8 pts per game with a possible regression right at the end when top 2 becomes mathematically impossible.

 

[Surf's Up]

You have them to win 3 out of 4 away games, but only 1 out of 3 at home? Can't see that happening

The 2 home games where I think they'll drop points are against Preston and Fulham, 2 teams who, in their very different ways, are at least a match for Huddersfield.

 

[Falmer Flutter ©]

Huddersfield have 21 points up for grabs from their remaining games – potentially taking them to 95 – and yet a mere THREE more for the Albion will be fine?

Okey Dokey...

Yes, because three more wins for the Albion would take us to 92 points, meaning Huddersfield would HAVE to get at least 19 of those 21 points to finish ahead of us.

EDIT: You're talking about three more points aren't you? I'm an idiot.

 

[warmleyseagull]

I can see Huddersfield winning all their games and unfortunately for us end up in another play off.

Wow, you're upbeat then.

Look at their fixtures: Easy game against Forest A but then they have, successively, PNE H(still outside PO chance) , Derby A (resurgent), Fulham H (PO contenders, 2nd best away team in league) Wolves A (found mojo). Eight points from those four games would be impressive. Likely to win their last two games so could still make 91 points, but think they are likely to slip up somewhere. 90 points still looks enough to me, and agree that 86 could well be.

 

[Audax]

You have them to win 3 out of 4 away games, but only 1 out of 3 at home? Can't see that happening

This end of the season, I think there's a lot more than just Home and Away that comes into the reckoning. You also need to look at what each side still has to play for, and what their recent form has been like.

That run in that Hudds have isn't going to be easy:

1. Preston and Fulham are both chasing an outside chance at play offs *and* in reasonably good form (over their last 10 games, both have scored more PPG than their season average).
2. Derby's off form, but also still got that outside playoffs carrot.
3. Wolves and Cardiff don't have much to play for, but they're both is good form over their last 10.
4. Notts and Birmingham are both so far off the boil there's icebergs in the kettle ... but they both have a relegation battle to negotiate.

If we then match up the above with H/A it's actually conceivable that the most likely place for Hudds to drop points is in the home games. My current pessimistic outlook is that we'll need 91 points, with predicted results for Hudds as follows:

Forest A - 3
Preston H - 1
Derby A - 3
Fulham H - 1
Wolves A - 3
Birmingham A - 3
Cardiff H - 3

I'm 50-50 on that Wolves result. By the time Hudds play them, we could have enough points on the board that they won't be able to catch us. In which case I can see Wolves getting a piece of them. But if they're still in the hunt then I can see the incentive of putting us under pressure for Bristol and then the tough Villa game to end things getting them over the line for the 3 points. So, pessimistic view is giving them the 3 points for now. Cardiff is another one, but in this case I think whether they still have a shot at auto or not they'll be looking to finish the regular season with a confidence booster ahead of playoffs.

 

[Yoda]

Just been doing a bit of Maths. 10 more points should be enough as things stand, leaving Huddersfield needing to win ALL their remaining matches due to our goal difference.

 

[HantsSeagull]

i really cant see 86 being enough

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

I reckon it could be 90. Or 92. Or 89.

93 I reckon. Maybe 91.....

I've been saying it all season, we'll need 87 or 88 points. Or 94 or more. Mark my words.

 

[Is it PotG?]

This end of the season, I think there's a lot more than just Home and Away that comes into the reckoning. You also need to look at what each side still has to play for, and what their recent form has been like.

That run in that Hudds have isn't going to be easy:

1. Preston and Fulham are both chasing an outside chance at play offs *and* in reasonably good form (over their last 10 games, both have scored more PPG than their season average).
2. Derby's off form, but also still got that outside playoffs carrot.
3. Wolves and Cardiff don't have much to play for, but they're both is good form over their last 10.
4. Notts and Birmingham are both so far off the boil there's icebergs in the kettle ... but they both have a relegation battle to negotiate.

Not sure Derby are still 'out of form'. Good new man in charge, did a job on Fulham, and scoring too.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Whatever happens I'm hoping for us to be up after the Wigan game. Its my last home game this season and I fancy a nice beer shower in the NS bar!

Same here..
Unlikely now though.. We would need to win all three and Huddersfield get no more than two points from Forest and Preston.

 

[Stato]

I seem to remember that someone has already referenced Billy Connolly's joke about the two cameramen in the Savannah watching a pride of lions when one of them starts changing into running shoes. 'You'll never outrun a lion" his colleague says and gets the reply "No, but I'll outrun you."

Given that they have two play off sides, two teams who have had really good seasons and two old scrappers in Mick (That point's for Chris Hughton) McCarthy and Neil Warnock, I suspect Newcastle would be happy to swap their remaining games for ours:

Sheff Wed A
Leeds H
Ipswich A
Preston H
Cardiff A
Barnsley H

If we can outrun the magpies, we won't need to outrun the terriers.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

Yes, because three more wins for the Albion would take us to 92 points, meaning Huddersfield would HAVE to get at least 19 of those 21 points to finish ahead of us.

EDIT: You're talking about three more points aren't you? I'm an idiot.

Yep, I'm referring back to the OP's original target, the goalposts of which have – surprise, surprise – moved.

On paper it SHOULD be straightforward, but in reality who knows?

 

[1892]

4 wins out of 6 required. Easier said than done but that is only if Huddersfield go on what would be an 8 game winning run.

 

[martin tyler]

Peoples opinions on this are going to change every bloody game. All I know is if they win their game in hand they are going to have to gain 7 points (due to GD) over 6 other games. Not impossible but bloody hard to do.
Leagues bloody tough and no game is easy despite people thinking some games are a walk over. They still have 6 games in 20 days to fit in prior to the final weekend or almost 1 every 3 days. So hats off to them if they can spin another 7 wins on the bounce I'd say they deserve to go up. what they have in their favour in my opinion is the fact they can go for broke home and away a bit like we did late last year as they know play offs are as good as done and their only realistic hope of catching the top 2 is to win 6:7 of their last 7

 

[Stumpy Tim]

This end of the season, I think there's a lot more than just Home and Away that comes into the reckoning. You also need to look at what each side still has to play for, and what their recent form has been like.

That run in that Hudds have isn't going to be easy:

I agree with your latter point. However, home will always be easier than away. Every away game is tough in my opinion, and I think Forest will get something at home to Huddersfield. Though no home game is a gimme, you won't get many games like Burton beating Huddersfield & Blackburn beating Newcastle.

My view is 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat will be enough for us - probably 3 wins and 3 defeats actually

 

[Stumpy Tim]

To add to that, if you assume Huddersfield will make the play-offs, you should assume we'll be going up. The points difference for them to 7th is basically the same as to us (9.5), though admittedly they do have that extra game.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Not sure Derby are still 'out of form'. Good new man in charge, did a job on Fulham, and scoring too.

Derby haven't lost their last three matches, and their only defeat in 6 matches was to us. Rowett has got them playing well.

 

[Brok]

It is of course possible that we have enough points already. Not very likely of course, but possible.

 

[perseus]

Forest A - 3pts
Preston H - 3pts
Derby A - 1pts
Fulham H - 1pt
Wolves A - 3pt (or beat Fulham, draw v Wolves)
Birmingham A - 3pts
Cardiff H - 3pts

There's my 17 pt prediction giving them 91 pts.

But we need our 91 pts before going to Villa.

I expect then their last home game will fizzle out to a 1-1 draw and give them 89 pts. But if they need a win they will get it.

So we need 2 home wins, and 4 pts from QPR and Wolves giving us 93 pts.

 

[Billy the Fish]

I can see Huddersfield winning all their games and unfortunately for us end up in another play off.

They won't win 8 on the bounce. It won't happen, especially not in this division.