[Football] 5/1 for Southampton to be relegated - value?

[Simster]

Haven’t looked and to be honest I pay no attention to betting markets ( at 56 I have never been in a book makers )

Just don’t know how you can make assumptions before teams even select their squads, there has been very little transfer news and won’t be until the euros finish next Monday I would think.

Palace have been favourites to go down the last 8 years and as yet have not even been close to it and the end of the season.

I can't really believe this is true, in fact it isn't even close, but in any case this is the first season I've genuinely got you earmarked to go down. You've got an untried manager the spine of your first XI out of contract and a talisman who would probably choose to move on if the right offer came in. It's not exactly guaranteed but you'll do well to finish above 16th IMO. It's a long season though, so 2/1 on a Palace relegation is too skinny for me. If Burnley and Palace both start off badly and Palace get the ginger dalek in (as they have tried before) I reckon you'll stay up comfortably.

On the other hand, people seem quick to write off Brentford's survival chances and I'm not sure why. They really are just a smaller version of the Albion - well run, a bit of new money, smart new stadium and some consistently decent recruitment over the past decade. I think they will surprise many. Southampton - not sure. 5/1 does seem value, but I don't expect them to go down even without Ings. They were horrific in the second half of the season but people forget they were outstanding in the first half. If I had to bet my mortgage on one team to go down, it would be Watford I think.

 

[Tony Towner's Fridge]

Didn’t Ings say when he joined that it was his dream move?

His boyhood club, and he was coming home.

and now he wants to leave to test himself at a higher level. Must be angling for a move 90 miles up the coast?

TNBA

TTF

 

[el punal]

Aplogies for bursting your bubble, and spoiling your pint of Guinness, but may l just remind you of one small point?

Southampton finished last season on 43 points, with us on 41.

I know we are all Albion fans, but sometimes all this self congratulatory stuff on here sticks in my craw.

Okay, my bubble has not burst and my Guinness is rather tasty. As I live in Southampton you tend to hear more about Saints than folks living in Sussex. What I stated in my post is factual and not made up hype or opinion.
The Saints, as a club, are having a rough time of it and this is reflected in the attitude of many of their fans. The comparison on the fortunes of both clubs is evident and nothing at all self congratulatory as you put it.

Another point, to do with points, in mid-January Southampton were 15 points clear of the Albion and finally ended up with, um, just 2 more than us. So on that basis the fortune swing-o-meter is swinging in favour of the blue and white stripes wouldn’t you say? Anyway, I hope your craw is unblocked for you to enjoy an unspoilt pint of Guinness.

 

[Cowfold Seagull]

Okay, my bubble has not burst and my Guinness is rather tasty. As I live in Southampton you tend to hear more about Saints than folks living in Sussex. What I stated in my post is factual and not made up hype or opinion.
The Saints, as a club, are having a rough time of it and this is reflected in the attitude of many of their fans. The comparison on the fortunes of both clubs is evident and nothing at all self congratulatory as you put it.

Another point, to do with points, in mid-January Southampton were 15 points clear of the Albion and finally ended up with, um, just 2 more than us. So on that basis the fortune swing-o-meter is swinging in favour of the blue and white stripes wouldn’t you say? Anyway, I hope your craw is unblocked for you to enjoy an unspoilt pint of Guinness.

Fair comment!

My self congratulatory jibe weasn't directed at you per se. I simply think that many posters seem to be of the opinion that we are in fact much better than last season's league table would suggest.

Let's wait and see how well things go for the 1st part of the new season before people start predicting a top ten finish, because quite honestly l've seen little to suggest that that is how things are going to pan out.

 

[Whitechapel]

Think West Ham @ 10/1 is where the value is.

Squad stretched by Europe, not signing Lingard & we know what the West Ham fans will be like if they start slowly and play rubbish football. Could be a recipe for disaster

 

[loz]

I can't really believe this is true, in fact it isn't even close, but in any case this is the first season I've genuinely got you earmarked to go down. You've got an untried manager the spine of your first XI out of contract and a talisman who would probably choose to move on if the right offer came in. It's not exactly guaranteed but you'll do well to finish above 16th IMO. It's a long season though, so 2/1 on a Palace relegation is too skinny for me. If Burnley and Palace both start off badly and Palace get the ginger dalek in (as they have tried before) I reckon you'll stay up comfortably.

On the other hand, people seem quick to write off Brentford's survival chances and I'm not sure why. They really are just a smaller version of the Albion - well run, a bit of new money, smart new stadium and some consistently decent recruitment over the past decade. I think they will surprise many. Southampton - not sure. 5/1 does seem value, but I don't expect them to go down even without Ings. They were horrific in the second half of the season but people forget they were outstanding in the first half. If I had to bet my mortgage on one team to go down, it would be Watford I think.

On this forum it has I can assure you

 

[Cowfold Seagull]

Think West Ham @ 10/1 is where the value is.

Squad stretched by Europe, not signing Lingard & we know what the West Ham fans will be like if they start slowly and play rubbish football. Could be a recipe for disaster

Not a bad shout actually.

 

[Juan Albion]

I can't really believe this is true, in fact it isn't even close, but in any case this is the first season I've genuinely got you earmarked to go down. You've got an untried manager the spine of your first XI out of contract and a talisman who would probably choose to move on if the right offer came in. It's not exactly guaranteed but you'll do well to finish above 16th IMO. It's a long season though, so 2/1 on a Palace relegation is too skinny for me. If Burnley and Palace both start off badly and Palace get the ginger dalek in (as they have tried before) I reckon you'll stay up comfortably.

On the other hand, people seem quick to write off Brentford's survival chances and I'm not sure why. They really are just a smaller version of the Albion - well run, a bit of new money, smart new stadium and some consistently decent recruitment over the past decade. I think they will surprise many. Southampton - not sure. 5/1 does seem value, but I don't expect them to go down even without Ings. They were horrific in the second half of the season but people forget they were outstanding in the first half. If I had to bet my mortgage on one team to go down, it would be Watford I think.

I can't see Brentford getting relegated. It sometimes seems like half their team plays for Denmark.

 

[el punal]

Fair comment!

My self congratulatory jibe weasn't directed at you per se. I simply think that many posters seem to be of the opinion that we are in fact much better than last season's league table would suggest.

Let's wait and see how well things go for the 1st part of the new season before people start predicting a top ten finish, because quite honestly l've seen little to suggest that that is how things are going to pan out.

Absolutely agree. The Albion have played lovely football in the last two seasons but have flattered to deceive i.e. no end product (goals). Having said that they have improved overall as a team since the beginning of the year. I am an optimistic realist(!) so I believe we will better last season’s results. As you say let’s see how things pan out. One thing is for sure Graham Potter will be under pressure this coming year to produce and take the team forward and upwards.Tony Bloom expects it and who are we to argue.

P.S. Re.our recent discussion I wonder how Southampton will fare in their circumstances?

 

[Perkino]

I think last season West Ham overachieved and will finish outside the top 10 this season. Southampton equally could struggle this season especially if they lose Ings. However Crystal Palace just look like a car crash waiting to happen. They have half a squad and a relatively inexperienced manager, I cannot see it ending well for them.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Aplogies for bursting your bubble, and spoiling your pint of Guinness, but may l just remind you of one small point?

Southampton finished last season on 43 points, with us on 41.

I know we are all Albion fans, but sometimes all this self congratulatory stuff on here sticks in my craw.

Stains, lost 15 of their last 21 league games
Albion, lost 8 of their last 21 league games

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Palarse, Wolves and Watford to go down.

 

[Mancgull]

Southampton have stated that they'll keep Ings for the season, hoping that he'll reconsider signing a new contract during the season....not likely I'd say.
Obviously they'll risk losing a transfer fee via this strategy and I wonder how motivated Ings will be. Still they keep a goal scorer for a season if they mean it.

 

[warmleyseagull]

Stains, lost 15 of their last 21 league games
Albion, lost 8 of their last 21 league games

This - Saints were 20th in League in second half of the season.

 

[HastingsSeagull]

This really is the year there SHOULD be 6-7 teams solidly below us and we really shouldn't be bricking it with 5-10 games to go. The problem is that can backfire way the world seems to play it.

 

[Randy McNob]

I thought he already tested himself at a higher level?

mid table prem is his level

 

[Gwylan]

On the other hand, people seem quick to write off Brentford's survival chances and I'm not sure why.

Maybe because, in nearly 30 years of the PL, there have been only three seasons when a promoted club hasn't been relegated, so the chances are that at least one of Norwich, Watford or Brentford will go down. Norwich stormed the league, so their chances look good, therefore there are good odds that at least one of Watford or Brentford will go - maybe even both.

 

[el punal]

Southampton have stated that they'll keep Ings for the season, hoping that he'll reconsider signing a new contract during the season....not likely I'd say.
Obviously they'll risk losing a transfer fee via this strategy and I wonder how motivated Ings will be. Still they keep a goal scorer for a season if they mean it.

I’ll be surprised if the owners don’t sell him. Saints have so many players on huge wages and probably Ings amongst them. In order to recoup some dosh better for them to flog him off now rather than get nothing in a year’s time. The fact that Ings has stated that he wants to leave may sway the decision. It’s certainly a gamble either way. Keep him and you’ve got a player who doesn’t want to be there and may not be motivated enough, sell him and you’ve lost the one player who essentially saved you from relegation last season.

 

[Simster]

Maybe because, in nearly 30 years of the PL, there have been only three seasons when a promoted club hasn't been relegated, so the chances are that at least one of Norwich, Watford or Brentford will go down. Norwich stormed the league, so their chances look good, therefore there are good odds that at least one of Watford or Brentford will go - maybe even both.

Yes I would be amazed if all 3 stay up as I realise the stats are against last season's promoted teams. It is just that I suspect Brentford will recruit well and IMO are more likely to stay up than Watford; yet when I posted, Watford had barely been mentioned

 

[el punal]

Maybe because, in nearly 30 years of the PL, there have been only three seasons when a promoted club hasn't been relegated, so the chances are that at least one of Norwich, Watford or Brentford will go down. Norwich stormed the league, so their chances look good, therefore there are good odds that at least one of Watford or Brentford will go - maybe even both.

Norwich may have stormed the second division league but they did it with very good Championship players. There in lies the problem. The club have not and will not spend big to attract experienced Premier League quality players. This is one of the reasons why they are the classic yo-yo side. Not good enough for the PL but superior to the majority of teams in the Championship. We wait and see though - Delia will have to publish another cookery book to provide the funds, as per last time!