[Politics] 2020 US election - Joe Biden vs Donald Trump

[peterward]

Same here, CNN, after flitting.

So much to know, in effect 50 countries with varying electoral rules eg some count the postal votes in the following days, some by the time the election stations close. Another nuance, rural votes reach state tallies later, giving Trump a late surge in Ohio, Georgia and North Carolina.

Just had a look around the internet to see what Fox News was saying and they have an interesting swingometer for states, plus the overall presidential, Senate and Congress races.

This is Trumps mouthpiece and their swingometer has Biden win (right now) at 91%

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/probability-dials

 

[Bozza]

Trump the betting favourite now.

 

[knocky1]

Im watching CNN, and its a tad confusing, as all states have different rules.....in a lot of the early numbers your not sure if that's in person today (more likely to favour Trump) or early votes (more likely to favour Biden)....... Its all gonna change.

Ohio looks the most promising, no Republican president has won without it in modern times, and Biden ahead 55-45 at about 55% counted, and they said thats a lot of in person with a lot of early votes still to come.

I like your Ohio and North Carolina. Listening to World Service and Guardian live count on phone.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...iden-who-won-presidential-republican-democrat

 

[peterward]

Trump the betting favourite now.

Really, wow! Genuinely don't get it

 

[fruitnveg]

Not Watching CNN (because its bias garbage) but if you are watching, can someone confirm whether they have just recinded their Virginia call?

 

[Klaas]

Trump the betting favourite now.

Can't see Biden winning. How useless is he?

 

[Bozza]

Not Watching CNN (because its bias garbage) but if you are watching, can someone confirm whether they have just recinded their Virginia call?

Not sure I heard them call it.

It just flashed up on their big map with Trump currently holding a decent lead. That they're showing it still means they've not called it.

 

[Bozza]

Really, wow! Genuinely don't get it

Yep - Trump clear favourite now, and odds still moving for him/against Biden.

 

[StonehamPark]

Watch live odds-changing here. Interesting viewing alongside your live American news updates.

https://smarkets.com/event/886736/politics/us/us-presidential-election-2020/2020-election-winner

 

[Mellotron]

Trump the betting favourite now.

Bizarre. Miami Dade appears an outlier so far, pretty much everywhere else Biden is comfortably outperforming Clinton, particularly in the suburbs.

Feels very much like the 2018 House race so far.

 

[fruitnveg]

Not sure I heard them call it.

It just flashed up on their big map with Trump currently holding a decent lead. That they're showing it still means they've not called it.

Ta, Still Blue on NYT but my audio is screeching about a recinded call.

 

[Bozza]

Watch live odds-changing here. Interesting viewing alongside your live American news updates.

https://smarkets.com/event/886736/politics/us/us-presidential-election-2020/2020-election-winner

It's what I've been doing on Betfair since 11.

The odds don't seem to match the sentiment in any way.

 

[Bozza]

Ta, Still Blue on NYT but my audio is screeching about a recinded call.

Just opened up Fox News live stream on my laptop and they have a "called" tick alongside Biden.

 

[StonehamPark]

It's what I've been doing on Betfair since 11.

The odds don't seem to match the sentiment in any way.

Yeah, it's a little odd.
Though perhaps interestingly, much more money being layed against Trump.

 

[Weststander]

Really, wow! Genuinely don't get it

[MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] may disagree, but that simply reflects betting sentiment, with a sheep effect and also as he pointed out people trading in and out. For example people with big money on Biden, now getting jittery, so taking a controlled loss and pulling out.

In the real non-betting world, it boils down to what happens in North Carolina, Ohio, Penn, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin over the next couple of days.

What do we actually know:
1. This won’t be a landslide for Biden decided in the first few hours.
2. Florida, with a unique demographic, stayed Republican.
3. The Democrats are doing surprisingly well in normally Republican counties across swing states, but it’s very early days.

 

[StonehamPark]

Odds really drifting in favour of Trump - though I believe this may be due to the Florida (almost) win for team red.
Texas is a realllly interesting one.

 

[peterward]

Trump getting shorter and shorter on betfair, Biden drifting, what the hell are they basing that on? must be some complex algorithm not available to the TV pollsters?

Edit: just seen your explanation Weststander. Cheers

 

[fruitnveg]

A large part of Democrat performances in Republican states is due to Democrat voters fleeing riots in states such as New York and California and taking their votes with them.

 

[Mellotron]

[MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] may disagree, but that simply reflects betting sentiment, with a sheep effect and also as he pointed out people trading in and out. For example people with big money on Biden, now getting jittery, so taking a controlled loss and pulling out.

In the real non-betting world, it boils down to what happens in North Carolina, Ohio, Penn, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin over the next couple of days.

What do we actually know:
1. This won’t be a landslide for Biden decided in the first few hours.
2. Florida, with a unique demographic, stayed Republican.
3. The Democrats are doing surprisingly well in normally Republican counties across swing states, but it’s very early days.

This is a sensible, clear-headed view of the situation.

A Biden landslide probably won’t happen, but a relatively comfortable Biden win is still absolutely on the cards, and the early signs are good. Except for Florida. As per.

 

[Bozza]

[MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] may disagree, but that simply reflects betting sentiment, with a sheep effect and also as he pointed out people trading in and out. For example people with big money on Biden, now getting jittery, so taking a controlled loss and pulling out.

In the real non-betting world, it boils down to what happens in North Carolina, Ohio, Penn, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin over the next couple of days.

What do we actually know:
1. This won’t be a landslide for Biden decided in the first few hours.
2. Florida, with a unique demographic, stayed Republican.
3. The Democrats are doing surprisingly well in normally Republican counties across swing states, but it’s very early days.

Oh, I said something similar to this earlier - sentiment can be powerful with this. In many ways it's not betting but trading and people will get spooked and move out of a position if they think it's going against them, and that can keep things moving in one direction.

I absolutely agree that the odd movement does not match the sentiment I have from watching CNN. I think I've also posted that I feel like I'm missing out on a story somewhere, based on the shifting odds!