2008

[ridda]

2009 starts with a clean slate. I am optismistic that 2009 will be better in my profession. It can hardly be any worse. I believe that the governement will underwrite and guarantee mortgages offered by banks whereby the banks will lend 90% at good rates and if the property prices fall below the original mortgage and the property has to be sold the deficit is guaranteed by the government. This will give the banks the confidence to lend and open up the mortgage market again as its been closed for over a year now.

Either that or the government will set up a lending department and offer 90% or even 95% mortgages at competative rates.

This would transform the property market overnight. The ONLY thing holding the property market back is lack of mortgages. Effectively there is NO new mortgage or re mortgage market over 75% loan to value.

People want to buy. There are some real bargains now. The only reason that there is a 10% fall forecast is not that people do not want to buy it is that they cannot buy.

With a government back scheme with 90% mortgage, with reasonable criteria at competative rates the property market could turn as quickly as it went to shit. Prices would stop falling and gain at slow rates for a while. people would feel more secure and this would trigger the whole economy and spin off professions that are dependant on a fluid property market.

So I am going to grab 2009 by the bollocks and crack on.

2009 Is going to be all about de-leveraging all the way down from hedge funds to individuals, people will not want to take on new debt they will be trying to bring down existing debt.
The housing market will not pick up for a long time yet especially as people are now losing there jobs.

 

[larus]

2009 Is going to be all about de-leveraging all the way down from hedge funds to individuals, people will not want to take on new debt they will be trying to bring down existing debt.
The housing market will not pick up for a long time yet especially as people are now losing there jobs.

Is the correct answer. We need to have a fundamental rethink of our economy and how we generate 'wealth'. Just because everyones house jumped by 30% over 3 years, lots of people thought they were wealthy, and spent this 'wealth' on cars, holidays etc. Hmm, so what have 'we' done to 'earn' this 'wealth'. Jack shit; that's why we are in such a mess. Oh, and GB has done the same for the country as well.

 

[Zesh Rehman]

9.5/10

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

So, this replaces the con that used to be Mortgage Indemnity insurance where you paid the premium to protect the lender with no benefit for yourself. Only in this case, I presume the government will not then try and recover any shortfall from the unfortunate borrower.

Perhaps the best way forward will be for the Government to nationalize all UK banks and sack all the c***ts at the top who brought about this current situation. Make it permanently illegal to sell something you don't own, ie short selling and try and curb the greed of the city where they line their pockets at our expense.

Correct.

I believe the housing market will turn around Summer with 90% mortagges available at good rates backed by the government or offered by the government. We will see a stop in house price falls and a slow rise which is what everyone wants. Houses are now priced at what they should be and I do not believe we will see a further 10#~% fall if the government takes this action which I believe they will do by the end of Spring if the Banks continue to basically not offer mortgages above 75% ltv.

 

[vegster]

Correct.

I believe the housing market will turn around Summer with 90% mortagges available at good rates backed by the government or offered by the government. We will see a stop in house price falls and a slow rise which is what everyone wants. Houses are now priced at what they should be and I do not believe we will see a further 10#~% fall if the government takes this action which I believe they will do by the end of Spring if the Banks continue to basically not offer mortgages above 75% ltv.

Well , thats that then, Spielburg has predicted........ we are stuffed

 

[Meade's Ball]

I wouldn't congratulate 2008 on being a truly fantabulous year, but it was certainly much better than the previous two. As much as i sort of enjoyed the bits of travel and visiting of things and places on occasion, the highlight was undoubtedly the conclusion of my medication. For them to reveal to me at its end that its very job was to inhibit me, to prevent me from actively thinking, to numb my processes and capacity to elaborate was sort of a hurtful truth to receive, but one i still see as a necessary safety for those 3 years. The world will never be my oyster and i shan't suddenly find calm and confidence in this state of druglessness, but to exist without the aid of medicine says that things ought get better, and a little within my control. This suggests i can get playful with words and relearn how to remember as the next year passes, and that some of the crippling daily fears i'm bludgeoned by may be repelled or disguised with greater ease. To the outside world this will make no difference whatsoever, no one will gain or prosper from my repair, but internally this is a feeling of true warmth and worth that nearly cracks my tearducts into action.
I am not a hopeful person, but do feel slightly relieved, and i wish a pleasant, unburning relief for everyone this year.
Happy 09 or whatever.

 

[tedebear]

I hope what US says re mortgages is complete poo poo bum, the government stepped into the financial markets against my wishes (although I can see the downside of a crumbling banking system but I still don't think they did the right thing), and if they go the whole hog to the mortgage market we as tax payers are doomed to a life of taxual misery...

ANYHOW - enough bah humbugging to 2008, I didn't like the year, never did but I have made a dashing, and fantabulous start to 2009.

I have cleaned the entire upstairs of our little house, every cupboard has been turned out, emptied of detritis and then half the shit thrown away and the proper things put back in. Arthur now has drawers full of clothes that fit, instead of overflowing with stuff 2 years to short for him! all the skanky underpants, socks and clothes in the house have been banished to garbage bags (yes 4 of them!) and will be dispatched to the fire tomorrow (aside from those good enough for car polishing). Now I'm off for a bath with a glass of bubbly and tomorrow bring on downstairs! Leave no dust bunny unhoovered!!

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I hope what US says re mortgages is complete poo poo bum, the government stepped into the financial markets against my wishes (although I can see the downside of a crumbling banking system but I still don't think they did the right thing), and if they go the whole hog to the mortgage market we as tax payers are doomed to a life of taxual misery...

Mutual building societies have been encouraging savings and lending money on a simple basis for well over a hundred years. Those which didnt go public are still going strong today. The system which US speaks about is not too dissimilar to this...so why the 'taxual misery?'

 

[looney]

2009 starts with a clean slate. I am optismistic that 2009 will be better in my profession. It can hardly be any worse. I believe that the governement will underwrite and guarantee mortgages offered by banks whereby the banks will lend 90% at good rates and if the property prices fall below the original mortgage and the property has to be sold the deficit is guaranteed by the government. This will give the banks the confidence to lend and open up the mortgage market again as its been closed for over a year now.

Either that or the government will set up a lending department and offer 90% or even 95% mortgages at competative rates.

This would transform the property market overnight. The ONLY thing holding the property market back is lack of mortgages. Effectively there is NO new mortgage or re mortgage market over 75% loan to value.

People want to buy. There are some real bargains now. The only reason that there is a 10% fall forecast is not that people do not want to buy it is that they cannot buy.

With a government back scheme with 90% mortgage, with reasonable criteria at competative rates the property market could turn as quickly as it went to shit. Prices would stop falling and gain at slow rates for a while. people would feel more secure and this would trigger the whole economy and spin off professions that are dependant on a fluid property market.

So I am going to grab 2009 by the bollocks and crack on.

yet again your talking out your arse. The problem really started in the USA when Clinton told the banks that the government would underwrite subprime loans. This removed the risk factor and the banks went on a wild lending spree thinking the government would pick up the bill for bad loans.

Things are not good but will correct themselves eventually. BTW it was senator McCain that tried to hold an enquirey into subprime lending but was blocked by the Democrats, one of which was Barak Hussien Obama, who has received regular and large campaign contributions from Fannie Mae etc.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

2009 not started so well for me despite my confident predictions at 12:01 this morning.

Got up early to split some logs and proceeded to crush my index finger, breaking it in two places, ripping off the nail and slicing right through on one side.

4 hours in A&E in Kent, so I am now confidently predicting a bout of MRSA for 2009.

Bloody marvellous.

 

[Uncle C]

I believe that the governement will underwrite and guarantee mortgages offered by banks whereby the banks will lend 90% at good rates and if the property prices fall below the original mortgage and the property has to be sold the deficit is guaranteed by the government. This will give the banks the confidence to lend and open up the mortgage market again as its been closed for over a year now.

Either that or the government will set up a lending department and offer 90% or even 95% mortgages at competative rates.

This would transform the property market overnight. The ONLY thing holding the property market back is lack of mortgages. Effectively there is NO new mortgage or re mortgage market over 75% loan to value.

The first thing to happen when the markets eventually recover is that turnover will increase. I think it will be a long time before prices start to go up again. There is now a massive buffer of unsold 'rented' properties. Untill these are cleared, prices will not rise.
If you couple this to a rising risk of unemployment, a loss of confidence in property as the investment panacea, and definitely no return to sub prime lending there is a long way to go.

 

[Arthritic Toe]

Sorry Unc, but I have to disagree with you (as ever) on your housing market views...

I believe that the governement will underwrite and guarantee mortgages offered by banks whereby the banks will lend 90% at good rates and if the property prices fall below the original mortgage and the property has to be sold the deficit is guaranteed by the government.

You seriously want the government to guarantee against negative equity? So you can just flog your house for 10 quid and have the tax payer pay the difference?

..We will see a stop in house price falls and a slow rise which is what everyone wants. Houses are now priced at what they should be ....

When houses are priced at the long term average of about 3.5 * annual salary, then they will be priced at what they should be. They need to (and will) fall another 25% before this is the case.

A slow rise is not what everyone wants! Its what you want. First time buyers who have been priced out for years do not want a slow rise, they want the price to fall to a level they can afford.

 

[tedebear]

Mutual building societies have been encouraging savings and lending money on a simple basis for well over a hundred years. Those which didnt go public are still going strong today. The system which US speaks about is not too dissimilar to this...so why the 'taxual misery?'

Not sure what Mutual Building Societies has to do with this?

Government bails out banks - money has to come from somewhere - who you ask? Well mostly its on paper, but you bet your bottom dollar next budget we'll see some fairly judicious tax hikes...

If the government starts backing mortgages before the banks have improved themselves (this will take years not months) then the banks will go hell for leather attempting to loan money - and get us right back into this sorry state we're in now. Why oh why would you want to issue more debt in the middle of a recession? Not to mention the fact that we've got one of the worst economies in Europe...

Why can't people leave an open market alone? We've had untold years of good times and everyone took the piss - now we suffer for it thats the way it is - leave it alone and get on with it.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

I hope what US says re mortgages is complete poo poo bum, the government stepped into the financial markets against my wishes (although I can see the downside of a crumbling banking system but I still don't think they did the right thing), and if they go the whole hog to the mortgage market we as tax payers are doomed to a life of taxual misery...

ANYHOW - enough bah humbugging to 2008, I didn't like the year, never did but I have made a dashing, and fantabulous start to 2009.

I have cleaned the entire upstairs of our little house, every cupboard has been turned out, emptied of detritis and then half the shit thrown away and the proper things put back in. Arthur now has drawers full of clothes that fit, instead of overflowing with stuff 2 years to short for him! all the skanky underpants, socks and clothes in the house have been banished to garbage bags (yes 4 of them!) and will be dispatched to the fire tomorrow (aside from those good enough for car polishing). Now I'm off for a bath with a glass of bubbly and tomorrow bring on downstairs! Leave no dust bunny unhoovered!!

Why didn't you sell some of your shit clothes on e-bay ?

 

[Simster]

Why can't people leave an open market alone? We've had untold years of good times and everyone took the piss - now we suffer for it thats the way it is - leave it alone and get on with it.

I The simple answer as to why you cannot leave the free market alone is in this one unique case is actually fairly simple: if your economy uses a banking system, it is absolutely vital that the public have confidence in that system.

As a consequence, they need to be restricted and controlled as to whom and how much they can lend. This is why the American republicans (a fairly extreme example of capitalism I'd say) bailed out the banks. Even they had decided that the alternative was another 1930s great depression with the public rocking up to banks armed with wheelbarrows.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Not sure what Mutual Building Societies has to do with this?

It was in reference to US's comment about the government being a lender of reasonably prices mortgages. I was trying to draw an analogy with Mutuals who have been operating the simple and straight forward business practice of saving and lending on reasonable terms for decades. Floated banks get involved in all sorts of riskier practices and 'financial instruments'.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Why can't people leave an open market alone?

In the respect of banks I think it is pretty obvious why they cannot be left to the open or free market to stand or fall.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Not sure what Mutual Building Societies has to do with this?

Government bails out banks - money has to come from somewhere - who you ask? Well mostly its on paper, but you bet your bottom dollar next budget we'll see some fairly judicious tax hikes...

If the government starts backing mortgages before the banks have improved themselves (this will take years not months) then the banks will go hell for leather attempting to loan money - and get us right back into this sorry state we're in now. Why oh why would you want to issue more debt in the middle of a recession? Not to mention the fact that we've got one of the worst economies in Europe...

Why can't people leave an open market alone? We've had untold years of good times and everyone took the piss - now we suffer for it thats the way it is - leave it alone and get on with it.

Why would banks go 'hell for leather' loaning money?

 

[tedebear]

In the respect of banks I think it is pretty obvious why they cannot be left to the open or free market to stand or fall.

Why not? They fall then they fall - the people who are stupid enough to rack themselves up to the eyeballs with debt will suffer, but I'm cautious and careful with my finances and I have to pay for this as well?? No thanks...

If the banks were involved with stupid debt that brought them down then they shoud have gone, Northern Rock should have been left to fail as should the US car makers....This is a natural correction, given the almightly high we have been riding, the correction was bound to be enormous.

 

[tedebear]

Why would banks go 'hell for leather' loaning money?

To make money! If the government backed them then they are onto a winner aren't they.