2008

[Herr Tubthumper]

To make money! If the government backed them then they are onto a winner aren't they.

I dont think the government underwriting mortgages would give banks carte blanch to loan whatever to whoever. The government already underwrite/guarantee payments for certain exports and this has not encouraged reckless exporting. It is closely regulated.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

I wouldn't congratulate 2008 on being a truly fantabulous year, but it was certainly much better than the previous two. As much as i sort of enjoyed the bits of travel and visiting of things and places on occasion, the highlight was undoubtedly the conclusion of my medication. For them to reveal to me at its end that its very job was to inhibit me, to prevent me from actively thinking, to numb my processes and capacity to elaborate was sort of a hurtful truth to receive, but one i still see as a necessary safety for those 3 years. The world will never be my oyster and i shan't suddenly find calm and confidence in this state of druglessness, but to exist without the aid of medicine says that things ought get better, and a little within my control. This suggests i can get playful with words and relearn how to remember as the next year passes, and that some of the crippling daily fears i'm bludgeoned by may be repelled or disguised with greater ease. To the outside world this will make no difference whatsoever, no one will gain or prosper from my repair, but internally this is a feeling of true warmth and worth that nearly cracks my tearducts into action.
I am not a hopeful person, but do feel slightly relieved, and i wish a pleasant, unburning relief for everyone this year.
Happy 09 or whatever.

Great stuff Meado. How go things with the lovely senorita?

 

[tedebear]

I dont think the government underwriting mortgages would give banks carte blanch to loan whatever to whoever. The government already underwrite/guarantee payments for certain exports and this has not encouraged reckless exporting. It is closely regulated.

You'd hope not, but until the banks learn that unless they are careful in the business that they do, then they will get into trouble. Thing is at the moment if they get into trouble they know they'll get bailed out. Where is the downside for them there?

Just think they've been given one life line too many.

Not sure this country could ever give rise to reckless exporting to be honest! Given how little we actually make anymore!

 

[Uncle C]

I am not a hopeful person, but do feel slightly relieved, and i wish a pleasant, unburning relief for everyone this year.

Are we talking cystitis here?

 

[Storer68]

2009 starts with a clean slate. I am optismistic that 2009 will be better in my profession. It can hardly be any worse. I believe that the governement will underwrite and guarantee mortgages offered by banks whereby the banks will lend 90% at good rates and if the property prices fall below the original mortgage and the property has to be sold the deficit is guaranteed by the government. This will give the banks the confidence to lend and open up the mortgage market again as its been closed for over a year now.

Either that or the government will set up a lending department and offer 90% or even 95% mortgages at competative rates.

This would transform the property market overnight. The ONLY thing holding the property market back is lack of mortgages. Effectively there is NO new mortgage or re mortgage market over 75% loan to value.

People want to buy. There are some real bargains now. The only reason that there is a 10% fall forecast is not that people do not want to buy it is that they cannot buy.

With a government back scheme with 90% mortgage, with reasonable criteria at competative rates the property market could turn as quickly as it went to shit. Prices would stop falling and gain at slow rates for a while. people would feel more secure and this would trigger the whole economy and spin off professions that are dependant on a fluid property market.

So I am going to grab 2009 by the bollocks and crack on.

As I work for the government may I say that is a shit idea.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Sorry Unc, but I have to disagree with you (as ever) on your housing market views...



You seriously want the government to guarantee against negative equity? So you can just flog your house for 10 quid and have the tax payer pay the difference?



When houses are priced at the long term average of about 3.5 * annual salary, then they will be priced at what they should be. They need to (and will) fall another 25% before this is the case.

A slow rise is not what everyone wants! Its what you want. First time buyers who have been priced out for years do not want a slow rise, they want the price to fall to a level they can afford.

Let me explain as people do not understand. What will happen is the government will guarantee banks mortgages. If they lend 90% loan to value and the property has to be sold at an eventual loss the government would make good the shortfall to the bank. The government would however try to recoup the loss from the borrower. This is how a mortgage indemnity policy on a mortgage works. At the moment there is no mortgage indemnity over 75% loan to value.

Either this scenario or the government will set aside massive funds to offer mortgages at 90% or 95% through local authorities.

They know they need a bold and decisive plan to stimulate the housing market. This must include 90% or 95% mortgages this year at comeptative rates. I say again effectively the mortgage market has been closed for business over 75% loan to value for the whole of 2008.

This bold move would in my opinion stop the house prices falls and would stabilise the housing market. The demand is very much there the supply of mortgage funds is not. This bold plan would not cost the tax payer money as the 90% mortgage would not fall into negative equity.

The MOST important thing for 2009 is to get the mortgage market and housing market moving and stop falling. Not just for my sake but for the sake of the whole UK economy. The 16.2% price fall in 2008 is enough of a correction. We are now over correcting property prices. With 90% or even 95% mortgages the market would return. We need an active and steady property market as it is the bench rock of the whole economy. Also this government gets billions of pounds a year in Stamp Duty which has withered in the last year.

Looney can say I am talking out of my arse, people can thing I am being stupid but I will refer back to this thread as the year progresses to see who is proved to be right.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Property price £ 170000 - for a 2/3 bed house or flat, no stamp duty
10% deposit = £ 17000
90% Mortgage = £ 153000

£ 43000 joint income needed. Below average uk joint incomes.

Mortgage £ 550 pm.

You don't think people would want to buy ?.

 

[Uncle C]

Property price £ 170000 - for a 2/3 bed house or flat, no stamp duty
10% deposit = £ 17000
90% Mortgage = £ 153000

£ 43000 joint income needed. Below average uk joint incomes.

Mortgage £ 550 pm.

You don't think people would want to buy ?.

I dont think enough would buy to stimulate the market in the way you hope.

1. Real fear that prices could fall more than a further 10% = negative equity for both the buyer and the lender.
2. Real fear of one wage earner loosing their job.
3. Fewer people having the 10% deposit.

 

[tedebear]

Property price £ 170000 - for a 2/3 bed house or flat, no stamp duty
10% deposit = £ 17000
90% Mortgage = £ 153000

£ 43000 joint income needed. Below average uk joint incomes.

Mortgage £ 550 pm.

You don't think people would want to buy ?.

Personally no - I'm not going to go into the property market right now. It would be foolish.