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  1. Bozza

    [Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

    I was about to post the same. Shoplifting is rife here, in exactly the same way described.
  2. Bozza

    [Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

    Absolutely no one predicted a victory of this scale, so I'm not sure any subsequent implications of that were really considered. As you say, given how it's turned out, skulking off home to lick some wounds is really the only viable response.
  3. Bozza

    [Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

    I didn't read that anywhere. The only expectation I had was that if it were a narrow Harris win, Trump et al would have issued rallying cries which would have resulted in civil unrest, violence and likely death. There was never going to be any unrest of note with a wide-margin victory...
  4. Bozza

    [Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

    Maybe it's me that's the jinx. I've just put a US news channel on for the first time in about eight hours, and they immediately called Wisconsin for Trump, making him President Elect. (Not that there was really any doubt, as I said before I went to bed)
  5. Bozza

    [Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

    When I wrote that post, I did type the line "Frankly, I wouldn't even rule out Trump winning the popular vote right now" but then I reflected that I was tired, emotional and gloomy, so I deleted it.
  6. Bozza

    [Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

    That's not actually true. For example, this is a post I made on this thread on the 15th October... I'll describe a friend of mine in the US. You tell me who they vote for... - Female - University educated - Bright - Funny - Socially aware - Lives in Southern California ...you've guessed she...
  7. Bozza

    [Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

    No. And that’s not just hindsight.
  8. Bozza

    [Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

    Republicans now edging Michigan. I’m going to catch a few hours sleep - seems little point watching this unfold from here. We need a huge f***ing miracle.
  9. Bozza

    [Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

    I’m not looking at the counts particularly. The betting markets are my guide. North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona are all Trump, and approaching “dead cert” territory. Momentum favouring him in all of the other four. The overall trend is not for Harris at all anywhere.
  10. Bozza

    [Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

    I hate to keep doing this, but Pennsylvania is still favouring the Republicans, although it’s tighter than both Georgia and North Carolina when I was accused of going too early. We’re still where we were: holding onto the expected Michigan win and flipping Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. All...
  11. Bozza

    [Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

    Site back-ups run at 2am - the site will be inaccessible for a few minutes.
  12. Bozza

    [Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

    Somethiing has just changed with Pennsylvania. CNN are on an ad break so I'm not sure what.
  13. Bozza

    [Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

    It's not, I'm afraid. Current chances for Trump to win: Arizona: 87% Georgie 85% North Carolina: 74% Nevada: 64% Wisconsin: 62% Pennsylvania: 59% Michigan: 41% We need Michigan to hold and turnarounds in Penn. and Wisconsin. I'm going to bed. I might even say a little prayer.
  14. Bozza

    [Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

    It's looking very worrying. I'm now deep down in my Brexit-like gloom. I'm going to wait for these first Philly votes to come in shortly, and possibly head to bed.
  15. Bozza

    [Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

    No - it's the exit polls being strongly in favour of Trump, particularly the massive swing of independent voters.
  16. Bozza

    [Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

    Again, it comes down to what credence you put in the betting marktets. As I've said, I do trust the markets to generally get it right. Market participants will know what they are doing, and be far better at analysing data from all channels than I can. And the market now gives Trump an 83%...
  17. Bozza

    [Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

    Georgia looks lost for Harris.
  18. Bozza

    [Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

    If Trump wins North Carolina and Georgia, Harris MUST win Pennsylvania. Current chances of Trump winning: North Carolina: 71% Georgia: 78% Pennsylvania: 57%
  19. Bozza

    [Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

    Yep. Trump's odds have shortened again since that news broke.
  20. Bozza

    [Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

    Odds swinging very much against Trump / in favour of Harris over the last little while. Trump still favourite, but Harris seems to have momentum.

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