I'm just a parent, but they should be reviewing the schools question in 4 weeks time to see which areas could reopen - a blanket "shut until half-term" is not warranted.
The elephant in the room. How the heck could you do it effectively for 50,000 plus cases a day, I don't know. I'd be delighted to be corrected if somebody here knows.
The only variable of where we are today vs what you describe as full lockdown IS outdoor exercise. Is that really likely to be a major transmission risk? We have been told all along you are very unlikely to catch this outside if socially distanced.
I'm a bit more sceptical than you about how...
The gov.uk numbers say Brighton and Hove had a cumulative total of 7580 as at 2nd Jan, the total as at 5th Dec was 4252 (28 days earlier), so that estimate seems about right.
Say we stay in Tier 4 with Schools shut (lockdown again), but the numbers of new cases fail to decrease - then what next? That's a question I have been asking myself of late.
What if we told everybody to lock their doors and stay home until further notice? A month or two, say. Or maybe 3? That would also have a "demonstrable effect on the R number". Does that make it a good idea?
Where do you draw the line? I thought we had decided to prioritise children...
I wasn't aware that teaching unions were responsible for public health, nor expert in the subject, nor responsible for setting policy. I guess we'll see.
A season-defining 2nd half coming up, perhaps. An unlikely fight back, OR an absolute battering.
Or it stays at 1-3.....
I think I've covered all the options.