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Furlough I imagine

The news site that I use in Tenerife is showing that 25% of all cases are front line medical staff ... I had to do a double take on that, horrific if correct but consistent with what you are showing above (if I've read correctly)

Recently airlines (in general) have been making good money but I assume they then use that profit to either replace more aircraft, make other investments and pay larger shareholder dividends. They look at their debt and see that they can afford to pay the interest payments and so no problem...

I'm not getting that as a trend. The number last week was a hike on the week before ... it's down today vs last Sunday and to the past few days but I think we need to see a few more before we can declare 'trend'. That said it's down so that's a good start and let's hope for a trend

Do you have the facts to back that up? I don't want to see them by the way but it does look largely assumptive (i.e the demographic is the same, they are all oldies in the care home system, it was the poor care that caused the infections etc). I'm not convinced, another bad day for cases and...

Done

Yes, but my simple numbers gets 7M hospitalised and 140,000 deaths (of under 60's) I'm sure it's a bad assumption but would like to see a decent (better) stab at the numbers along the lines that I put up

Got it .... 6M had it so far would be good I've no idea if that's optimistic .. I doubt anyone does ??? If nobody else got it now I assume the 1000 deaths would increase to ?? So difficult but as I've said elsewhere I can't see anything other than going down this sort of route and hope that as...

140,000 deaths. 7M hospitalised sounds rather a lot too!!! Would be interested to see someone with a bit more of a grasp of the current numbers and how they apply to the overall population having a go at this. I got ancy yesterday with the 'let's just got for herd immunity' approach but I...

Not sure of the maths to get to 1000 If we've had (round numbers) 100,000 reported cases to date how many of those under 60? Assume 50%? So 1000 deaths from 50,000 (assume no more of the 50,000 die) that's 2% Mild symptons and asymptomatic rate assume 3:1? Assume 25% never get it? So 10M...

I think you're right as the only way to get rid of the thing is to wipe it out and have effective quarantine for those coming in. We missed the chance and don't have the luxury of time now so we're f****d. I'm not sure if the economy does get back to normality, much will depend on the severity...

Hang on .... you put 40M+ 'back to normal' and think that those that die (wouldn't mind your estimate of numbers by the way) would be similar numbers to those that would have died anyway in car accidents and such like? How many of those infected (estimate please) will require hospital and ICU...

Maybe not but the price to pay certainly is. I'm horrified that anyone would think it's in any way, shape or form reasonable

I don't disagree but my instinct says that we will be bowing to the obvious social and economic pressure versus what might be right for the safety of many. I hope I'm wide of the mark I was specifically asking about the quarantine comment .. I think it's a key element to successfully dealing...

What was the source of that? In my uneducated view stricter quarantine measures will be essential in dealing with this ******* so I'd be really interested to know that our so called leadership have cottoned on

I'd imagine social distancing comes fairly naturally up there?

Yes, bad example probably. There has been a relaxation where some non essential workers are concerned though and I see that as a start. My worry remains though, that decisions could/will be made on the trajectory of the downward line rather than the absolute numbers

Plus I assune these forecasts are for when it's over? My fear is economic and social pressure and not necessarily our safety will drive the lockdown relaxation and that could be catastrophic Already countries are heading into a relaxation phase based on declining numbers yet those numbers are...

Very true about different viewpoints. I can see the Spanish, and others, relaxation backfiring on them and back into full lockdown after 3/4 weeks. It's why I am not expecting any real tourism to get going this year. If we got back to our place in Tenerife this year I'd be mightily surprised too

Nobody really knows, we're in uncharted waters. Macron said today that he could see Europe's borders shut till September and that might be optimistic. If countries do open up to tourism then they will get a short term economic uptick but this thing will soon return and the short term benefit...