[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

cunning fergus · 2025-02-23T08:36:34+0000

Hugo Rune said:
I suppose if you consider Russian Army units clapping the Wagner Rebellion into their military bases, that might be true.

But to everyone else on this board, it IS vile Russian propaganda. The Russian army were certainly not unified in their reaction to Prigozhin’s attempted coup. Some applauded him and supported him, others attacked him.

As others have said, they are shipping in North Koreans for the meat grinder on the front line. The Russian Army largely operates out of fear or money lust. Evil criminals released from prison rub shoulders with foreign mercenaries and innocent Russian young men who have been ripped out of their normal peaceful lives by conscription and sent to the trenches to die. The whole thing will fall apart once the Putin fear factor is removed. They’ll all go home.

Your knowledge and judgement of the Russian Army is ignorant, wretched and I would guess, profoundly insincere as you attempt to gaslight the board with your hard right farage-eque politics.

It’s not working.

You highlighted my reference to the Russian Army being “unified” and for the sake of argument let’s say I’m wrong. As it stands their disunited Army is still in possession of parts of Ukraine and there appears little prospect that position is going to change anytime soon.

That’s tragic for Ukraine, however that does not change that current fact.

It is also a fact that in the 3 years it’s been waging war the Russian military (and its population) are more acclimatised to a war that has resulted in eye watering losses. This country has not even been engaged in a war in our living memory that has involved hundreds of casualties a month, let alone thousands.

Unlike Russia therefore a this country’s reaction to that scenario is completely unknown, and highlighting that reality is not supporting the Russian invasion.

Triggaaar · 2025-02-23T08:42:06+0000

peterward said:
FT

The free world (which no longer includes America) needs to stand up to Trump. We need to make it so that the US don't profit from the route he's taking.

Triggaaar · 2025-02-23T08:45:17+0000

Deportivo Seagull said:
It’s not though.
Poland in 1939 was brave but militarily hopeless. it relied on cavalry rather than tanks which is why it fell so quickly.
Ukraine on the other is holding it‘s own and with the new support from Europe it Will continue to bog down Russia.

Secondly the US is 5k miles away so not sure how they are going to get feet on the ground, added to that Russia is a basket case.

I agree.

Deportivo Seagull said:
My view is that Trump and Musk thought Ukraine would straight away given in to US demands and so now they are scrabbling about trying to force the issue. They both need a quick victory otherwise they’ll look like the idiots we know they are.

Maybe. But have you read the FT article above your post? They assert that this isn't merely negotiations, and that the US has turned, that it actually agrees with Russia trying to dominate their local area, and wants itself to dominate the West.

cunning fergus · 2025-02-23T08:45:59+0000

SouthSaxon said:
Then why did you imply that it is?

I don’t think YouGov’s poll is nonsense, I think your analysis of it is.

Of course not. What I believe is that your view is far too negative.

We agree that the U.K. won’t need a serving army of 3m or bigger as per WW2, we are in agreement on that, so that’s what matters.

My analysis is straight from the polling, I think it’s broadly accurate and on that basis (for example) up to half Gen Z would NOT fight on any basis.

That alone is problematic because the other half won’t simply toddle off to the trenches while their peers on sitting up home with their trotters up posting on Insta.

If you think that’s too negative a position that’s fine, it’s simply opinion, and the exchange those should be healthy.

Deportivo Seagull · 2025-02-23T08:52:32+0000

Triggaaar said:
I agree.

Maybe. But have you read the FT article above your post? They assert that this isn't merely negotiations, and that the US has turned, that it actually agrees with Russia trying to dominate their local area, and wants itself to dominate the West.

They may well agree and in 1960 that would be in issue. However Russia is a very sick bear and Europe is actually much stronger than it was then. If Russia can’t take Ukraine then they won’t take Europe.
Someone needs to explain the Trump et al that this isn a game of Risk. Saying it doesn't make it real which is what he thinks is reality. Let’s face it both Trump and Musk are like kids who have never been told ’no’.

Triggaaar · 2025-02-23T08:53:51+0000

cunning fergus said:
It’s not my stat, it’s from a YouGov poll sponsored by The Times.

It was you who wrongly interpreted the stat, which was pointed out to you. You incorrectly claimed that only 11% would fight for the UK, but the poll you linked to said that 11% would fight regardless of the reason, and plenty more (like half) would fight if they agreed with the reason.

You find a poll and then twist it and lie to fit your Russian propaganda narrative.

Deportivo Seagull · 2025-02-23T08:55:10+0000

cunning fergus said:
We agree that the U.K. won’t need a serving army of 3m or bigger as per WW2, we are in agreement on that, so that’s what matters.

My analysis is straight from the polling, I think it’s broadly accurate and on that basis (for example) up to half Gen Z would NOT fight on any basis.

That alone is problematic because the other half won’t simply toddle off to the trenches while their peers on sitting up home with their trotters up posting on Insta.

If you think that’s too negative a position that’s fine, it’s simply opinion, and the exchange those should be healthy.

A poll is a moment in time And the results will change dependent on what the context is.

I think you’ll find that Gen Z won’t fight for racist gammons like you which how they view the country at the moment.

cunning fergus · 2025-02-23T08:55:21+0000

Deportivo Seagull said:
20% in three years. Russia really is shit.

It looks like Europe are increasing aid so things will get very interesting. It’ll piss Trump off as its one less bargaining chip.

You’re entitled to your opinion. Its wrong, no surprises there, but there you go.

Exactly, Russia is up 20% and Ukraine down, and your assessment of that is that Russia is shit.

European aid is subject to European countries agreeing to that and it being supported by their local electorates, I agree with you there that things will get interesting.

The threshold of support for Ukraine is not bottomless, and if (for example) Rachel has to increase tax or cut services to up military aid to Ukraine we will see if people will support it.

Again opinion, only time will tell who is right or wrong.

Triggaaar · 2025-02-23T08:56:46+0000

Deportivo Seagull said:
They may well agree and in 1960 that would be in issue. However Russia is a very sick bear and Europe is actually much stronger than it was then. If Russia can’t take Ukraine then they won’t take Europe.

No Russia can't take Europe, but it's still very damaging to Europe (first Ukraine) if the US decides to support Russia (by removing sanctions, cutting aid to Ukraine etc).

When Russia stopped playing nicely with the world, they were kicked out of the G8. At this rate, we're going to have to kick the US out too.

Berty23 · 2025-02-23T08:58:28+0000

My lad is 16. We have spoken about all of this and fighting for country. Him and his mates are fuming how the country is being divided by Farage and his ilk. They all hate it. They are a group with all different races and wealth. My lad is particularly angry about my dad and his Mrs’ views from the telegraph and express. “Why the hell should we go and fight for something we don’t like? We are not going to be able to afford a house and even moving out to rent is beyond most” type arguments. Basically they don’t see what’s worth fighting for.

I would be interested if other parents have the same view.

I certainly don’t feel the pride in Britain I used to. It all feels a bit small island mentality.

peterward · 2025-02-23T09:00:37+0000

cunning fergus said:
We agree that the U.K. won’t need a serving army of 3m or bigger as per WW2, we are in agreement on that, so that’s what matters.

My analysis is straight from the polling, I think it’s broadly accurate and on that basis (for example) up to half Gen Z would NOT fight on any basis.

That alone is problematic because the other half won’t simply toddle off to the trenches while their peers on sitting up home with their trotters up posting on Insta.

If you think that’s too negative a position that’s fine, it’s simply opinion, and the exchange those should be healthy.

Maybe now is the time to reintroduce national service? I don't say that lightly with a 10yo son.

That would have basic military training in most gen z youngsters, who would then be reservists.

The threat from Trumps tilt cannot be understated, unless he is somehow deposed, we need to act swiftly and decisively, if this is new reality and plan accordingly.

No time for opinion polls or focus groups, neither of which will save us if the shit hits the fan.

Munchkin · 2025-02-23T09:08:11+0000

cunning fergus said:
for the sake of argument let’s say I’m wrong.

You are, on a consistent basis.

SouthSaxon · 2025-02-23T09:16:32+0000

cunning fergus said:
My analysis is straight from the polling, I think it’s broadly accurate and on that basis (for example) up to half Gen Z would NOT fight on any basis.

That alone is problematic because the other half won’t simply toddle off to the trenches while their peers on sitting up home with their trotters up posting on Insta.

I’ve explained my issue with your original analysis (the 11% figure) already. Some other factors to consider:

The survey was published over a week ago and must have been compiled some time prior, before Trump started tearing up the world order
The way people respond to a survey on a hypothetical scenario is going to be different to when they they respond to a real one
The situation and therefore people’s perception of the threat has changed beyond recognition in two weeks. Shit, as they say, is getting real very quickly
The characterisation that those not going to war will happily sit at home with their feet up doesn’t reflect reality. A key feature of WW2 was the home front - those not in front line service were being attacked on a daily/nightly basis. In modern warfare, nobody is out of the firing line. This uncomfortable truth would quickly become apparent to anyone naive enough to dispute it

There’s good reason the believe that survey is not representative of the latest reality and already out of date.

My view is that we cannot know how people will respond until the chips are down.

This survey from Observer/Opinium indicates the British public in general disapproves of what Trump is doing. This may harden people’s attitudes - it certainly is having that effect on me, as it quickly became clear that our strongest ally can no longer be trusted.

Similar changes in attitude occurred in the 1930s as it became clear that Hitler would not be sated by appeasement. That didn’t mean Britain entered that war with unanimous, full throated support among the electorate, or even within government.

cunning fergus said:
If you think that’s too negative a position that’s fine, it’s simply opinion, and the exchange those should be healthy.

Agreed.

peterward · 2025-02-23T09:23:55+0000

SouthSaxon said:
I’ve explained my issue with your original analysis (the 11% figure) already. Some other factors to consider:

The survey was published over a week ago and must have been compiled some time prior, before Trump started tearing up the world order

The way people respond to a survey on a hypothetical scenario is going to be different to when they they respond to a real one

The situation and therefore people’s perception of the threat has changed beyond recognition in two weeks. Shit, as they say, is getting real very quickly

The characterisation that those not going to war will happily sit at home with their feet up doesn’t reflect reality. A key feature of WW2 was the home front - those not in front line service were being attacked on a daily/nightly basis. In modern warfare, nobody is out of the firing line. This uncomfortable truth would quickly become apparent to anyone naive enough to dispute it

There’s good reason the believe that survey is not representative of the latest reality and already out of date.

My view is that we cannot know how people will respond until the chips are down.

This survey from Observer/Opinium indicates the British public in general disapproves of what Trump is doing. This may harden people’s attitudes - it certainly is having that effect on me, as it quickly became clear that our strongest ally can no longer be trusted.

Similar changes in attitude occurred in the 1930s as it became clear that Hitler would not be sated by appeasement. That didn’t mean Britain entered that war with unanimous, full throated support among the electorate, or even within government.

Agreed.

Agree

There's a big difference to imagining a fantasy scenario where you're compelled to go and fight in some foreign, arse end of nowhere adventure like Afghanistan.

Versus.

Foreign military on UK soil, murdering and killing your community, destroying your homeland, friends, family etc.

I dare say if that were the reality, as in Ukraine, regular people, postman, shop workers, NHS workers, IT contractors would suddenly become soldiers and pick up a weapon and fight back.

raymondo · 2025-02-23T09:27:42+0000

Triggaaar said:
I agree.

Maybe. But have you read the FT article above your post? They assert that this isn't merely negotiations, and that the US has turned, that it actually agrees with Russia trying to dominate their local area, and wants itself to dominate the West.

Yes, it seems Trump agrees that Russia dominates it's local area (so, tough shit Ukraine, yaboo Europe), thereby freeing up the US to focus on resisting/corralling (sp?) Chaina?
Lots of talk in Oz about the incredibly expensive Aukus project, that many Australians see as a set up for the US to use Australia as a base to counter Chinese influence.

Triggaaar · 2025-02-23T09:31:42+0000

cunning fergus said:
You highlighted my reference to the Russian Army being “unified” and for the sake of argument let’s say I’m wrong. As it stands their disunited Army is still in possession of parts of Ukraine and there appears little prospect that position is going to change anytime soon.

You don't seem to understand the basics of how a war works. The Russian army is not (as you claim) united with one purpose. That doesn't mean they're all going to suddenly rout. The fact that they can hold on to their position is not an indicator of unity, it's more to do with the reality of defence against attack. There's also the fact that Russia has more troops and weapons than Ukraine (although the numerical advantage has reduced as the war has gone on), but again, that does not mean they're united.

cunning fergus said:
This country has not even been engaged in a war in our living memory that has involved hundreds of casualties a month, let alone thousands.

I asked you this before but you dodged it: "Russia are taking 1,500 casualties a month. Ukraine are taking about 200 per month. If the UK were a small part of a European force, along with Ukraine, how do you figure that the UK would be taking over 4,000 casualties a month?"

Ukraine have 900,000 active personnel, and are losing a couple of hundred per month. So how do you suppose a small supporting force from the UK, maybe 3% of Ukraine's force),would be suffering several times as many casualties as Ukraine?

Why are you making up this nonsense?

Birdie Boy · 2025-02-23T09:41:27+0000

Berty23 said:
My lad is 16. We have spoken about all of this and fighting for country. Him and his mates are fuming how the country is being divided by Farage and his ilk. They all hate it. They are a group with all different races and wealth. My lad is particularly angry about my dad and his Mrs’ views from the telegraph and express. “Why the hell should we go and fight for something we don’t like? We are not going to be able to afford a house and even moving out to rent is beyond most” type arguments. Basically they don’t see what’s worth fighting for.

I would be interested if other parents have the same view.

I certainly don’t feel the pride in Britain I used to. It all feels a bit small island mentality.

Yes, but would he want to live in a Britain ruled by Russia?

Flounce · 2025-02-23T09:47:50+0000

Berty23 said:
I certainly don’t feel the pride in Britain I used to. It all feels a bit small island mentality.

History repeating itself as it has done for ever with every powerful Empire. We are currently close to the bottom of the rise and fall of the British Empire, or maybe we are even beyond that now.

Birdie Boy · 2025-02-23T09:54:25+0000

My "kids" are 25, 27 and 29 so presumably perfect for conscription. I doubt any would want to go. The 25 year is a single mum, hopefully that would rule her out, even if it means kicking her out of the house with my granddaughter. The 25 year old possibly has asthma and definitely is very short sighted, so should rule him out. 29 year old, no reason why he can't go, then I can downsize the house.

Harry Wilson's tackle · 2025-02-23T10:09:45+0000

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