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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)







beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
36,227
The replies say that peace is, in the short term, more of a danger to the Russian economy than continuing war.
I dunno.
those replies ignore the larger falls are from a couple of gas companies and banks, best placed to benefit from normal relations. it's a 1% drop in overall market, to levels not seen since Friday, wouldn't read much into it.
 




GoldstoneVintage

Well-known member
Oct 20, 2024
321
Europe
Now that is very interesting. Turkey and Russia have loathed each other since the height of the Ottoman Empire. This is very much a spanner in the works for Trump.
The only downside is that Erdogan is just as much of an arse as the rest of them,
I agree he's an arse, but not sure he's 'just as much an arse.' If I had to choose (an arse) he would be preferable to Trump/Putin IMHO.
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,962
those replies ignore the larger falls are from a couple of gas companies and banks, best placed to benefit from normal relations. it's a 1% drop in overall market, to levels not seen since Friday, wouldn't read much into it.
Fair enough.

But we've identified a minor dividend of a successful peace agreement, however it applies to Ukraine. A peace agreement is seen as damaging the prospects of the already damaged Russian economy. I'll take that. It hasn't been a good day.
 








schmunk

Well-used member
Jan 19, 2018
10,741
Mid mid mid Sussex
Trump doesn’t do alliances, which means the US no longer does alliances. People (Europe) need to stop thinking in those terms.

He’ll do a deal with someone if he sees a personal benefit in doing so. Mostly that means money, but it definitely doesn’t mean for the greater good.
Indeed - Trump has proven time and time again that he has a very simplistic zero-sum approach to negotiation. He always wants to "win", and for him that necessarily means that someone else has to "lose".

There is no win/win; there is no mutual benefit; there is no greater good.
 






Deportivo Seagull

I should coco
Jul 22, 2003
5,648
Mid Sussex
I agree he's an arse, but not sure he's 'just as much an arse.' If I had to choose (an arse) he would be preferable to Trump/Putin IMHO.
Erdogan is held in check by the secular part of Turkey, but he is an Islamist and given half chance would push for an Islamic state of some sort.
 
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Insel affe

HellBilly
Feb 23, 2009
24,831
Brighton factually.....
Way to go America, round one Russia

"Russia won't accept Nato troops in Ukraine as part of any peace deal, says Lavrov"​


America brings absolutely no bargaining chips whatsoever to the table.

All America want is to carve up the Ukraine's for it's minerals just like getting into bed with Israel....

doubt i will be going back to see the wifes family anytime soon, feck America at this rate.
 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
8,305
Wiltshire
Now that is very interesting. Turkey and Russia have loathed each other since the height of the Ottoman Empire. This is very much a spanner in the works for Trump.
The only downside is that Erdogan is just as much of an arse as the rest of them,
Yes, that's what I thought too. He is an autocrat indeed, but possibly a different agenda...I think he's much less likely to make a deal with Putin than Trump is for example.
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
8,305
Wiltshire
Way to go America, round one Russia

"Russia won't accept Nato troops in Ukraine as part of any peace deal, says Lavrov"​


America brings absolutely no bargaining chips whatsoever to the table.

All America want is to carve up the Ukraine's for it's minerals just like getting into bed with Israel....

doubt i will be going back to see the wifes family anytime soon, feck America at this rate.
Exactly, I won't be spending any of my hard earned money on any US trip.
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
8,305
Wiltshire
Way to go America, round one Russia

"Russia won't accept Nato troops in Ukraine as part of any peace deal, says Lavrov"​


America brings absolutely no bargaining chips whatsoever to the table.

All America want is to carve up the Ukraine's for it's minerals just like getting into bed with Israel....

doubt i will be going back to see the wifes family anytime soon, feck America at this rate.
Russia is calling the shots - makes me think again that Putin has compromat on Trump if he rolls over for this.
 










Depressing, concerning, infuriating and cheated. That’s my feelings right now. I thought the US were like family. It really doesn’t feel like that currently. I am due to go there on business soon and just feel like telling work to f*** the trip off out of protest. I do imagine half of the US are in dispair currently.
 




Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
54,450
Goldstone
Ideally, and what further sanctions can practically be applied / why haven't they been to date?

They've added varying sanctions slowly over time. Part of the reason they didn't all start on day 1 was to protect the other partners that would be affected (eg, ban them from selling oil and you affect those buying it as well as Russia), but it does seem they've been pretty slow, and Russia would be in a worse state if some of them had been applied earlier. For example, Gazprombank was sanctioned in Nov 24, which had a noticeable impact on Russia. Why the hell they weren't targeted earlier I don't know.

I don't know what further ones they could apply. I tend to hear what's just been applied and then wonder why they weren't sanctioned already.

I'm very concerned about Trump reducing sanctions, although I imagine he'd only do that if Russia offered him something in return, and I'm not sure what they can offer him. A blank cheque I suppose :rolleyes:
 


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
54,450
Goldstone
Well Trig, currently he's only there for 4 years, yes. But what if one of his flunkies gets in (e.g. Vance) , then nothing changes.

That's scary. Do we think Americans will see themselves as better off under Trump? And will the Democrats accept that Americans aren't ready to vote in a non-white woman president? Let's hope they see sense.


If Trump continues at this momentum of destroying old allegiances, then Europe needs to be brave, bin off the US, and invite Ukraine into a European defense force. Maybe I'm dreaming 🤔

Your dream started as a nightmare.
 
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