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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)







Binney on acid

Well-known member
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Nov 30, 2003
2,716
Shoreham
Not razed to the ground - but some damage to Moscow and St. Petersburg to shake the influential inhabitants out of their complacency would be good.
Do you honestly think that a couple of dozen Russian corpses in either Moscow or St. Petersburg will force mister Genocide to back down ?

I'm waiting for entire Russian neighbourhoods to be reduced to a pile of rubble, and for Russians to focus on extinguishing fires on their home territory, rather than creating them in another country.

Only when this happens indiscriminately on a regular basis, will there be any likelihood of the endless slaughter of Ukrainian innocents coming to an end.
 




Sirnormangall

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2017
3,277
I hope they also have to negotiate with the country in Europe that has the most experienced military, and that knows the Russians best...i.e. Ukraine.
Rosenberg reports today of a Russian newspaper saying that whatever the outcome of any peace negotiations, the threat to Russia will remain until the Kyev regime is eliminated. Russian media also contains negative comments on the impact of sanctions and the economy in general - including criticism of central and policy. More cracks appearing?
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
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Aug 24, 2020
7,648
Do you honestly think that a couple of dozen Russian corpses in either Moscow or St. Petersburg will force mister Genocide to back down ?

I'm waiting for entire Russian neighbourhoods to be reduced to a pile of rubble, and for Russians to focus on extinguishing fires on their home territory, rather than creating them in another country.

Only when this happens indiscriminately on a regular basis, will there be any likelihood of the endless slaughter of Ukrainian innocents coming to an end.
I agree with you but I my routemap to peace for Ukraine is a little different.
I think you mean the west/NATO going in tooled up. This may have unintended consequences.

For me, it is infinitely preferable if the reducers of entire Russian neighbourhoods to rubble, are other Russians.

Remember how the Afghan war ended? It was Russian mothers who brought it to an end. They ended it after 15000 Russian soldiers died and 35000 were injured. The Ukraine war total is 16 times as large. And counting. The combined total of dead and injured has exceeded 800,000, numbers which are of course, not published to the populace.

Can you imagine just how nuclear Russian mothers will be when they find out that Putin et al has set up fake mothers' groups to absorb any adverse campaigning by grieving Russian mothers of missing or dead soldiers? Who will the Russian mothers go for? They will go for the legislators.

So will local warlords, oppressed by Moscow for generations. Centuries.

All it needs is for the truth to reach enough Russians. Trump will know this. He may use it. He already tweeted, a few weeks ago, when casualties were a mere 700,000.
Putin will also know this. His greatest fear has always been his own people.

Keep the pressure on. Increase the sanctions. Enforce them. Clear down the shadow fleet. And then sit back, watch and enjoy the show.

Russia is collapsing. Buy the ticket. Take the ride.
 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,903
Wiltshire
Rosenberg reports today of a Russian newspaper saying that whatever the outcome of any peace negotiations, the threat to Russia will remain until the Kyev regime is eliminated. Russian media also contains negative comments on the impact of sanctions and the economy in general - including criticism of central and policy. More cracks appearing?
Confirmation from them that it's about having a Ukrainian democracy on their doorstep that is their 'problem', and NATO is a sideshow.
 


GT49er

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Feb 1, 2009
49,856
Gloucester
Do you honestly think that a couple of dozen Russian corpses in either Moscow or St. Petersburg will force mister Genocide to back down ?
No, of course not - never said it would. Moscow and St.P .untouched by war so far - it's time their citizens woke up and started to realise all is not as portrayed on Russian TV. Seeds of doubt, mutterings of discontent - from small acorns .....................................................
 










Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,648
Question: 'Who is firing?'
Answer: Russian banks, coal miners, Gazprom, Norilsk Nickel, they're all at it.

All the news items in Konstantin's weekly digest of 'Crazy Russian news' are of interest, but for just the redundancy notices or 'letters of happiness', watch from 35:46 onwards.

 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,903
Wiltshire
Question: 'Who is firing?'
Answer: Russian banks, coal miners, Gazprom, Norilsk Nickel, they're all at it.

All the news items in Konstantin's weekly digest of 'Crazy Russian news' are of interest, but for just the redundancy notices or 'letters of happiness', watch from 35:46 onwards.


Interesting thanks, especially the details on the lay-offs, and the specific food inflation figures near the end.
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
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Aug 24, 2020
7,648
Interesting thanks, especially the details on the lay-offs, and the specific food inflation figures near the end.
Konstantin puts it succinctly. Sberbank is cutting jobs, because its customers are so poor, that the bank cannot make a profit out of them. So they are cutting costs now, to lessen the risk to the bank. They have all the data and they can see what's coming.

It's the proverbial canary in the coalmine. Other canaries in other mines are available.

The inflation data is significant. Rapidly rising food prices will lead to food shortages, with food essentials moving inexorably out of reach to all but the elite.
Forget videos of well stocked supermarkets in Moscow. They are not representative. It's the far-flung regions at the end of dirt roads, far from railways that have long since ground to a halt, that will suffer first. Hunger looms for Russians.
 


essbee1

Well-known member
Jun 25, 2014
4,927
Konstantin puts it succinctly. Sberbank is cutting jobs, because its customers are so poor, that the bank cannot make a profit out of them. So they are cutting costs now, to lessen the risk to the bank. They have all the data and they can see what's coming.

It's the proverbial canary in the coalmine. Other canaries in other mines are available.

The inflation data is significant. Rapidly rising food prices will lead to food shortages, with food essentials moving inexorably out of reach to all but the elite.
Forget videos of well stocked supermarkets in Moscow. They are not representative. It's the far-flung regions at the end of dirt roads, far from railways that have long since ground to a halt, that will suffer first. Hunger looms for Russians.
100%. And the even sadder thing is that the Russian people will put up with it.
 






raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,903
Wiltshire
Konstantin puts it succinctly. Sberbank is cutting jobs, because its customers are so poor, that the bank cannot make a profit out of them. So they are cutting costs now, to lessen the risk to the bank. They have all the data and they can see what's coming.

It's the proverbial canary in the coalmine. Other canaries in other mines are available.

The inflation data is significant. Rapidly rising food prices will lead to food shortages, with food essentials moving inexorably out of reach to all but the elite.
Forget videos of well stocked supermarkets in Moscow. They are not representative. It's the far-flung regions at the end of dirt roads, far from railways that have long since ground to a halt, that will suffer first. Hunger looms for Russians.
Indeed, look at what they do (Sberbank) and not what they say (propagandists).
Yet,as discussed before, the isolated provinces are very remote and so unlikely to upset the apple cart... it's wealthier Moscow and St P folk that need to feel real pain and consequences before something might happen.
 




Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,648
The Washington bailout - the economic stimulus that is - reportedly - the talk of Russia.

Here is Mark Biernat talking about the 'morkov' or carrot.
Caveat - this is the first I've heard of it. I've no idea whether there is anything in it or not, what the details are, or whether it will work.



Edit: Usual caveats apply - proceed with caution. It could all be Russian disinformation. You may have read about a Danish
F16 trainer pilot being killed by a Russian missile in Ukraine? It was made up. As Konstantin Samoilov said, things are getting feverish now.
 
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Sirnormangall

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2017
3,277
The Washington bailout - the economic stimulus that is - reportedly - the talk of Russia.

Here is Mark Biernat talking about the 'morkov' or carrot.
Caveat - this is the first I've heard of it. I've no idea whether there is anything in it or not, what the details are, or whether it will work.


Interesting but difficult to know what rumour to believe currently. The “Washington bail out “ could simply be a nice way of spinning Trump telling Putin that if he gets out of Ukraine the sanctions might stop. Any economic stimulus won’t happen unless sanctions are removed and hopefully that won’t happen until peace, security and territory is restored in Ukraine
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,648
Interesting but difficult to know what rumour to believe currently. The “Washington bail out “ could simply be a nice way of spinning Trump telling Putin that if he gets out of Ukraine the sanctions might stop. Any economic stimulus won’t happen unless sanctions are removed and hopefully that won’t happen until peace, security and territory is restored in Ukraine
I take your point. The Washington bail out could be all sorts of things. Disinformation, true, false, kite flying, Trump testing the water, Trump causing a bit of chaos, Trump shaping the negotiating table, Trump dangling a carrot in front of the Russian mule, you name it.

But maybe we don't need to focus on what to believe. Maybe the takeaway from this is the reported reaction in Russia. If we accept what Mark Biernat says, then whatever it is, it appears to have got Russians (the ones that matter) behaving like cats on a hot tin roof.

I could be wrong, but I think we are still quite a way away from imposing the conditions, milestones and dependencies you state in your last sentence.
 


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