No, I agree with you, but he is a loose cannon...stranger things have happened...
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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)
- Thread starter vegster
- Start date
No, I agree with you, but he is a loose cannon...stranger things have happened...
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,442
Where do I begin? A few months ago, someone posted (on the internet) a list of the times Russia had issues a threat of using nukes. The number of times was 165. This is not normal behaviour... Going back to the video, the 'wild miscalculations' of the war that Keir Giles refers to, also defied logic.
Indeed he has struggled against a small nation. But I would counsel against imagining what Putin realises. We all imagined he wouldn't invade Ukraine, but invade Ukraine he did, and he lied about it, to the whole world. Earlier on in the war, I saw a video featuring an American-Ukrainian journalist, who observed that every time you think Putin 'wouldn't do that would he?', he goes ahead and does it. Furthermore, what may apply in a Russia v Nato conflict now, doesn't mean it will apply in the future. .
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I disagree. Russia issue nuclear threats to try and scare us off helping Ukraine. It has probably worked to some extent. It's not necessarily normal, but the logic is clear. Their miscalculations about the war are just that - miscalculations. They thought they'd take over Ukraine easily, and I expect a lot outside Russia believed it too. The invasion turned out to be a mistake, but not illogical.
He knows this war hasn't gone well. He may still believe he'll win, but there's no way he believes he can beat NATO militarily. Instead he may believe he can destabilise us, and his dream may be to get us to split up. Then he'd look at attacking individual countries, but we're a long way from that.
There is a lot of evidence of Russia's behaviour over the last 100 years. This attempt to build back the soviet union is not a huge surprise. What would be the purpose of randomly attacking a NATO country? It wouldn't be with the goal of getting us to back down, it's way too damaging for that. It would have us and the rest of NATO preparing for war. Other things Russia have done can be explained, but that could not.
I think it was just clickbait.
Did we? The first posts on this thread suggest the opposite.
Anger
Well-known member
- Jul 21, 2017
- 594
He might be doing it because he’s a small man with a Napoleon Complex (and an even smaller pen15).
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,442
On one of those 'what do ordinary Russians think?' Youtube videos, someone likened him to a monkey with a grenade.
Yes, exactly what I thought...
I do wonder when "ordinary Russians" will finally rise up...is the threat of "being dissapeared" still too much to over come...
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,442
Miscalculations. Mistakes. Illogical. The fine differences in those meanings don't really matter. They are not the point.
The point is that whether or not Putin sometimes behaves logically, history has shown he is capable of making many mistakes, over an extended period of time.
Is he capable of making the mistake or miscalculation, of launching missiles at Britain, or any other Nato nation? Yes, he might be. That doesn't mean to say he will. But we should be open to the possibility.
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,442
I know you all like a big bavovna. It's not the angel of Toropets, but it's not bad three days before Christmas.
Sirnormangall
Well-known member
- Sep 21, 2017
- 3,234
I’m not sure what Putin will do or what he’s capable of, but from what we’ve seen to date ( and I apologise for stating the bleeding obvious) he seems to be unpredictable, utterly deceitful, leads a regime that ignores international law and abuses its position on the UN Security Council. For many years (pre and post Soviet Union) a key Russian aim seems to have been to ensure that its western border has a buffer between Russia and NATO that comprises either neutral or (preferably) supplicant states. I think Putin will play a long game and do what it takes to achieve that.
Belarus ticks that “supplicant state” box and so does Georgia (but that’s looking dodgy). Luhansk and Donbas tick the box but Putin needs a puppet government in Kiev to solidify that ( hence the war). Retaining Crimea is key not just for the Black Sea naval port but for a launch pad to take Odessa and the Ukrainian coast…….which in turn leads to taking Moldova (“ rescuing” the Russian speakers) which borders an (apparently) increasingly pro Russian Romania…..which in turn borders pro Russian Serbia and Putin’s mate Orban in Hungary. So, I think Russia’s desired direction of travel is clear - to rebuild the Soviet Union.
But I don’t think Putin ever felt that Sweden and Finland would join NATO and that gives him a new challenge of several hundred miles of “hostile” border to manage. I believe Putin’s master plan will be thwarted but it will take time and the west will need to keep its resolve and maintain the sanctions regime and military support for some time. Ongoing US support is key - I don’t think Putin would worry much about taking on Europe ex US. Sorry to ramble!
Belarus ticks that “supplicant state” box and so does Georgia (but that’s looking dodgy). Luhansk and Donbas tick the box but Putin needs a puppet government in Kiev to solidify that ( hence the war). Retaining Crimea is key not just for the Black Sea naval port but for a launch pad to take Odessa and the Ukrainian coast…….which in turn leads to taking Moldova (“ rescuing” the Russian speakers) which borders an (apparently) increasingly pro Russian Romania…..which in turn borders pro Russian Serbia and Putin’s mate Orban in Hungary. So, I think Russia’s desired direction of travel is clear - to rebuild the Soviet Union.
But I don’t think Putin ever felt that Sweden and Finland would join NATO and that gives him a new challenge of several hundred miles of “hostile” border to manage. I believe Putin’s master plan will be thwarted but it will take time and the west will need to keep its resolve and maintain the sanctions regime and military support for some time. Ongoing US support is key - I don’t think Putin would worry much about taking on Europe ex US. Sorry to ramble!
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,442
Excellent ramble.
I like the geo-political route to Serbia and Hungary. I like that a lot. Very good observation.
Regarding the several hundred miles of hostile border, I recall a Solovyev moan about the 3000km border, being entirely made up of 'non-friendly' countries.
Self-awareness is not a strong Russian trait...
That's a lot of ducks putin has to line up in a row for his plan to succeed. Will never happen imho.
Very well said.
At some point I do believe Putin will test NATO resolve in practical terms. There will be an incursion/ small attack of some type on a NATO member - depending on NATO reaction there will be an apology, blah, rogue soldiers blah, satnav Error blah , missile malfunction blah....but I do believe they will test it .
crookie
Well-known member
Such a malevolent country. Hugely rich in natural resources, the potential to be such a powerful country in a positive way, especially because of its troubled and bloody history. Instead we have a regime intent on destabilising democracy and democratic countries with election interfering. Blatant disregard for international treaties that it signed, invading sovereign neighbours, committing heinous war crimes on civilians and threatening anyone who dares confront their aggression with nuclear consequences. If a huge sinkhole opened up and swallowed the whole country, the world would be a much happier place
- Aug 7, 2003
- 8,128
I take it that with all this talk and theorising of Putin’s long term plans, all the stories, previously published in the media, about him being terminally ill are nonsense?
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,442
You obviously aren't a geographer Crookie:
This fella scares the shit out of me.
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- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,442
To be fair, his head is much larger than it used to be. But he* did well to last 4.5 hours at his annual Q & A session.
* At least one Youtuber, a Prof. Tim Wilson, believes he is already dead, and that a doppelganger answered all the questions. I thought he was a bit relaxed, full of bonhomie, unconcerned about the economy etc.
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,442
Too late - it's gone viral.Ohh... it's possibly from the US Daily Express...proceed with caution.
From now on, you're Scoop Raymondo!