[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

Eric the meek said:

Would you lend money to Russia? I wouldn't. Well, all right. Would Russia's 'friends' then? North Korea? Iran? China?
No? So Russia can now only raise cash from inside Russia.

TLDR - no credit rating + low income + high interest rates + off-book loans + no foreign bank will lend Russia money = an impending debt crisis.

The presentation skills could be better, but he makes some good points.

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peterward said:

I agree with all your points above, and without being an economist and knowing what Russian central Bank or Putin will do exactly, I wonder what will happen when/if Putin tries to lean on the Oligarchs to bail him out?

He has on numerous occasions asked them to pay for things like Crimea bridge, or facets of World Cup 2018, from a position of strength and they, wanting to keep onside and their wealth, have always conformed, but now as you cite, the whole picture is different, they've most likely already taken a huge haircut on their wealth and if Putin cant fund the everyday or his war and leans into them to do so, will they still conform to bail him out at their personal expense or will they finally try to somehow pull the trigger on Putin?

There's no real loyalty to Putin imho, just the mechanisms of a system that allowed them to be super rich, and preserving their wealth will be much higher priority than preserving Putin.

They wont be prepared to go down with the ship and you'd expect a desperate Putin will go to them for financial help if needed.

Will they choose the poor house to back a sinking ship, or chance of a Balcony fall to go against Putin?

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aftershavedave said:

Good post. Who knows? In the short-term I guess that they'll protect whatever Ruble denominated assets they have, and there has been strong Ruble purchases today, either because 115 was an overreaction, or "interested" parties have been buying to avoid a stronger run on the currency. The media has been very quiet on this, which is strange

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aftershavedave said:

Good post. Who knows? In the short-term I guess that they'll protect whatever Ruble denominated assets they have, and there has been strong Ruble purchases today, either because 115 was an overreaction, or "interested" parties have been buying to avoid a stronger run on the currency. The media has been very quiet on this, which is strange

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Eric the meek said:

What this thread needs is an economist. We had one briefly the other week, but he slipped over the side to go and watch the test match in NZ.

This wouldn't have happened in Russia. He'd have been chained to his desk, fed endless borscht and blinis, and his family held hostage at gunpoint.

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essbee1 said:

Indeed. Why aren't the BBC running the demise of the ruble? They do allow BBC web access in Russia don't they? It could be the
trigger to help pukin on his way out a 4th floor window.

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aftershavedave said:

I am going for interested parties propping up the shitshow btw, I wouldn't be surprised at the buyers being sovereign funds friendly to Russia unless corporates are taking realised profits just to start again. The trajectory is one way though if they can't or won't protect their interests. The big players are big-corp banks, they know where this is heading: 120 by early next week

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USD/RUB Currency Exchange Rate & News - Google Finance

Get the latest United States Dollar to Russian Ruble (USD / RUB) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.

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Sirnormangall said:

I can’t find anything on the BBC website about the Ruble — odd, maybe I missed it. Steve Rosenberg continues to produce his usual daily summary of the Russian newspaper headlines which this week have featured heavily the currency and inflation problems. Surprised in a way that the state controlled media aren’t seeking to play down or ignore these problems, but I suppose some things are just too obvious for the state to ignore and the best option is to try to control the narrative around bad news.

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peterward said:

This is a brilliant illustration of how crazy west's reposnse has been.

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Eric the meek said:

Would you lend money to Russia? I wouldn't. Well, all right. Would Russia's 'friends' then? North Korea? Iran? China?
No? So Russia can now only raise cash from inside Russia.

TLDR - no credit rating + low income + high interest rates + off-book loans + no foreign bank will lend Russia money = an impending debt crisis.

The presentation skills could be better, but he makes some good points.

Click to expand...

Dick Head said:

Nice skateboard though.

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Eric the meek said:

Would you lend money to Russia? I wouldn't. Well, all right. Would Russia's 'friends' then? North Korea? Iran? China?
No? So Russia can now only raise cash from inside Russia.

TLDR - no credit rating + low income + high interest rates + off-book loans + no foreign bank will lend Russia money = an impending debt crisis.

The presentation skills could be better, but he makes some good points.

Click to expand...

Eric the meek said:

Sorry, false alarm. As you were. There is no ruble collapse. Move along. Nothing to see here.

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A1X said:

View attachment 193038

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GoldstoneVintage said:

Is he by any chance hinting that Russia has a debt crisis?

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