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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)



Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,036
I know it's not the point of the article, but from that: "When Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was killed in a plane crash last year"

So it wasn't shot down, it simply crashed did it? I appreciate they may be attempting to be ambiguous and leave the cause of the deaths to us, but saying it crashed actually acts as though it wasn't shot down. When tanks are blown up by mines and rockets, we don't say they crashed :rolleyes:
Good spot. This could be the BBC copying the narrative in a report from Russia, after Russia has been subtle in its reporting language. Suddenly, Putin is distanced from Prigozhin's death. He wasn't shot down, and the innocent plane crew were not sacrificed to kill him.
 




Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,020
Goldstone
Good spot. This could be the BBC copying the narrative in a report from Russia, after Russia has been subtle in its reporting language. Suddenly, Putin is distanced from Prigozhin's death. He wasn't shot down, and the innocent plane crew were not sacrificed to kill him.

I think it's pathetic of the BBC. What they could have said was 'died when his plane blew up', because that fits the conclusion from the West, and also the claim from Russia. The difference is simply how it was blown up.
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,036
Thanks, this is actually pretty encouraging and seems logical.
I liked the observation about Trump, who says everything to futureproof himself against changing his mind. That would explain the mixed messages I wrote about a week or two ago.

Then there was the point about the Russian Black Sea oil export terminals. The reason they are still operating is because Ukraine doesn't want to risk upsetting the Americans.

But if Trump says he's not going to send any more aid, then it could be open season.
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,036
I think it's pathetic of the BBC. What they could have said was 'died when his plane blew up', because that fits the conclusion from the West, and also the claim from Russia. The difference is simply how it was blown up.
I agree. I would have expected better from the BBC. They know Russia distorts reality. Indeed, they've got a whole department called 'BBC Verify' to verify incoming news items.

Perhaps they also need to use that department to validate and proof read their own output.
 








raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,286
Wiltshire
A disturbing, but not entirely unexpected result of Russian veterans returning home and being violent.

What also is happening, is that the violence tends to go unpunished and is becoming normalised.

There aren't many russians that I feel anything for...but the families of those murdered by released prisoners... There's nowhere for those family members to go for justice - nothing for them.
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,286
Wiltshire
And Twitter. Seems a lot of people are moving off twitter to Blue Sky. Would love it if twitter failed. Would it be the first large company to fail simply because it’s owner is a complete wanker?
Would be nice. A lot of the pro Ukraine commentators I read say they will stay on Twitter (or have both) to keep fighting the bad guys and the trolls.
Or should they all leave so the bad guys and bots just fight each other.
I don't know what the 'protections' are on BlueSky but I'm pretty sure the trolls and bots will follow there somehow 🙁
 




Wallace

Active member
Nov 9, 2016
164
The hyper-inflation in the Russian economy suggests that money supply is growing much faster than real economic output. We don’t have any hard information on money supply in Russia, but it’s likely, maybe even probable, that Russia is now printing/creating new money, to use to prop up its currency, because it has no accessible reserves left. Remember when you did history back at school, and citizens in Nazi Germany were literally resorting to using wheelbarrows to move the amount of cash required to go shopping. Not there yet, but maybe not far off. That’s his last resort, to create new money to prop up his currency and this is an exponentially slippery slope. If only we had access to his genuine M0 and M4 (money supply) statistics, trends and trajectories.
Maybe he's been getting some advice from Gordon Brown regarding printing money.
 




Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,020
Goldstone
That Gordon who sold most of our gold reserves, at a low point in the price cycle, before going on to print money, and then leave the cupboard empty?!

Now hold on a minute, he did have the decency to tell the markets he was going to sell the gold before doing so, so at least they had a chance to dump gold before the price dropped.
 






raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,286
Wiltshire
I liked the observation about Trump, who says everything to futureproof himself against changing his mind. That would explain the mixed messages I wrote about a week or two ago.

Then there was the point about the Russian Black Sea oil export terminals. The reason they are still operating is because Ukraine doesn't want to risk upsetting the Americans.

But if Trump says he's not going to send any more aid, then it could be open season.
It was a very thoughtful video from Warburg, and I like the three points you highlight, especially the first. One always thinks Trump is just random, unpredictable, and it may well be very deliberate from him... covering all bases.

Even the rudeness directed toward Zelenskiy in the past week has come from Musk and Trump's son - Trump can disown that, as he hasn't been rude about Zelenskiy for over two weeks now!
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,036
It was a very thoughtful video from Warburg, and I like the three points you highlight, especially the first. One always thinks Trump is just random, unpredictable, and it may well be very deliberate from him... covering all bases.

Even the rudeness directed toward Zelenskiy in the past week has come from Musk and Trump's son - Trump can disown that, as he hasn't been rude about Zelenskiy for over two weeks now!
I forgot to mention that the US have only sent 10% of the promised weaponry. So that means that the potential withdrawal of US aid is not so daunting for Ukraine as it might have been, and Trump may not have the leverage to twist Zelensky's arm as he might have done.
 




BenGarfield

Active member
Feb 22, 2019
347
crawley
That Gordon who sold most of our gold reserves, at a low point in the price cycle, before going on to print money, and then leave the cupboard empty?!
What cupboard? This is nonsense. Every UK government since 1971 has printed money. Thats what fiat currency governments do. I hold no brief for Gordon Brown, as I understand from a guy I met at a recent economics conference, who had interviewed Brown for an economics podcast, that despite being prime minister and chancellor, he had very little grasp of how UK monetary operations actually worked.
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,286
Wiltshire
I forgot to mention that the US have only sent 10% of the promised weaponry. So that means that the potential withdrawal of US aid is not so daunting for Ukraine as it might have been, and Trump may not have the leverage to twist Zelensky's arm as he might have done.
Yes, I do get his point, and it's important, but I think he downplayed the total military support from the US since the invasion.
US military and financial support overall has been critical to Ukraine IMO - it would take some time for Europe, Ukraine (and others? S Korea?) to take up the slack.
 


seagullwedgee

Well-known member
Aug 9, 2005
3,059
This chart plots the rouble against the US$ for the last 3 months. In that period the rouble has devalued by 15%, on the back of at least 2 years of prior substantial devaluations. Marked with the red arrows, you can see how over time, the interventions of the Russian central bank have become progressively less effective at arresting the devaluation.
IMG_2640.jpeg


That suggests they are very close to the point where they just don’t have enough, or anything, left to prevent further immediate substantial devaluation.
 






raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,286
Wiltshire
This chart plots the rouble against the US$ for the last 3 months. In that period the rouble has devalued by 15%, on the back of at least 2 years of prior substantial devaluations. Marked with the red arrows, you can see how over time, the interventions of the Russian central bank have become progressively less effective at arresting the devaluation.View attachment 192497

That suggests they are very close to the point where they just don’t have enough, or anything, left to prevent further immediate substantial devaluation.
Very interesting thanks, especially the interventions becoming less effective,👍🏼👍
 




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