You don’t give the source for the 2.5% so it’s difficult to analyse (presume that's annual, and presume we’re talking about now), but if you were to add that to the UK GDP growth (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_growth_rate) then the UK would have phenomenal growth of 3.6%, instead of being in the gaggle of European countries at roundabout 1% (and that’s ignoring Germany at 0%). I just find it difficult to see us being so ahead.Yes, yes it was. The economy would be in a totally different place without the continued burden of Brexit. A recent report estimated this at reduction in growth of 2.5%. Now doesn't 2.6 look a MUCH bigger number than 0.1?
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[Politics] The Labour Government
- Thread starter Super Steve Earle
- Start date
It's not hard to find various reports online detailing the continuing effect on the country's economy of the awful Brexit deal. Here's one:
Brexit deal impact 'worsening', economists say
The findings come from a report covering the three-year period after the Brexit deal was signed.
www.bbc.co.uk
Here's the Statista report (yes it's annual to be fair but the point is the same).
Brexit effect on GDP forecast 2024 | Statista
A recent analysis on the impact of Brexit suggests that in 2023, the United Kingdom's economy was 2.5 percent smaller than it would have been in a base scenario where the UK never left the EU.
www.statista.com
But it's about to get a lot worse as the one country we were told we'd get a free trade deal with has just elected an ultra-nationalist and protectionist who will immediately introduce tariffs on imports. No doubt some on this thread will blame that on Labour too, instead of a guy who's just put the healthcare of his country into the hands of an anti-vaxx conspiracy theorist.
In short, Brexit will continue to f**k us over, maybe forever and according to both Statista and the original Sky report I linked to, in an increasingly bad way.
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,689
No. The living wage is an hourly wage, so even a 16 year old on current minimum wage is subject to the full impact if he/she works 23 hours a week. This charge is aimed at employers of part time workers.
Are you saying people on the minimum wage don't have full time jobs?
nicko31
Well-known member
Just sent an item to Poland by UPS (road), zero customs value, it took 13 days. We're in a messIt's not hard to find various reports online detailing the continuing effect on the country's economy of the awful Brexit deal. Here's one:
Brexit deal impact 'worsening', economists say
The findings come from a report covering the three-year period after the Brexit deal was signed.www.bbc.co.uk
Here's the Statista report (yes it's annual to be fair but the point is the same).
Brexit effect on GDP forecast 2024 | Statista
A recent analysis on the impact of Brexit suggests that in 2023, the United Kingdom's economy was 2.5 percent smaller than it would have been in a base scenario where the UK never left the EU.
But it's about to get a lot worse as the one country we were told we'd get a free trade deal with has just elected an ultra-nationalist and protectionist who will immediately introduce tariffs on imports. No doubt some on this thread will blame that on Labour too, instead of a guy who's just put the healthcare of his country into the hands of an anti-vaxx conspiracy theorist.
In short, Brexit will continue to f**k us over, maybe forever and according to both Statista and the original Sky report I linked to, in an increasingly bad way.
I have a number of stories relating to this. The most recent was a Brighton scarf I bought for a friend....ignoring the delay the duty was 92% on top of the cost of the item. I buy a lot of vinyl from the UK, this is around 30-35% on top. Some recent work hardware shipped from the UK cost an extra 20%. I'm lucky that I can aborb the cost, but I can only imagine how this has impacted some small businesses. So, it's a bit rich/hypocritical for certain types to complain about the effect of NI on SMEs when the Tory party and Brexiteers inflicted withdrawing from the world's largest trade zone on them. Why werent you caring for SMEs then?
Happy Friday
nicko31
Well-known member
I'm involved a business why the EU repair centre for a product used to be UK based, it was super easy. But with Brexit the centre was shut and moved to Poland. Now it a total nightmare, turn-around time can be anything from a 1 week to 5 weeks. It more cost, less efficient and uncertain.I have a number of stories relating to this. The most recent was a Brighton scarf I bought for a friend....ignoring the delay the duty was 92% on top of the cost of the item. I buy a lot of vinyl from the UK, this is around 30-35% on top. Some recent work hardware shipped from the UK cost an extra 20%. I'm lucky that I can aborb the cost, but I can only imagine how this has impacted some small businesses. So, it's a bit rich/hypocritical for certain types to complain about the effect of NI on SMEs when the Tory party and Brexiteers inflicted withdrawing from the world's largest trade zone on them. Why werent you caring for SMEs then?
Happy Friday
Johnson's deal was so crap
Pavilionaire
Well-known member
- Jul 7, 2003
- 31,318
The thing that angers me is how Reeves and Starmer keep reiterating that they will not be entering into a Customs Union with the EU. What has Reeves got to gain by saying no to a Customs Union with the EU? She's still in campaigning mode. Just say nothing and at least you keep your options open.
I get no re-joining the EU, no to Single Market but surely if they are telling the truth about discovering a £22 billion black hole just for this year's finances they would be mad to rule out something that would instantly improve our economy the moment it was re-implemented.
It is utter madness to have campaigned and argued to Remain - as Labour did in 2016 - but to then double down in perpetuity to this dystopian Brexit outcome.
Since the Referendum about 5 million people have died in the UK. The over 65s voted 60/40 for Brexit, so Brexit has lost a net 1,000,000 votes there. Then if you factor in say 4.5 million have reached voting age since 2016 and they vote the same way 18-25 years olds did in 2016 (73/27% Remain) you have just over 2,000,000 new Remainers. Therefore, on demographics alone the 1.28 million Brexit majority is now c. 1.72 million Remain majority.
But even that doesn't factor in the economic deterioration since Brexit. Now polls are telling us out of 20 voters 11 say we were wrong to leave, 6 say we were right to leave, 3 are undecided. If you ignore the undecided, that is 64-36% that think we were wrong to leave.
Somebody needs to explain to Reeves, we've fallen off a cliff, we're on a ledge, the ledge is cracking, there's a rope dangling there back to the top but - no - let's stay on the ledge and see if Trump jumps on it so we plummet still further.
I get no re-joining the EU, no to Single Market but surely if they are telling the truth about discovering a £22 billion black hole just for this year's finances they would be mad to rule out something that would instantly improve our economy the moment it was re-implemented.
It is utter madness to have campaigned and argued to Remain - as Labour did in 2016 - but to then double down in perpetuity to this dystopian Brexit outcome.
Since the Referendum about 5 million people have died in the UK. The over 65s voted 60/40 for Brexit, so Brexit has lost a net 1,000,000 votes there. Then if you factor in say 4.5 million have reached voting age since 2016 and they vote the same way 18-25 years olds did in 2016 (73/27% Remain) you have just over 2,000,000 new Remainers. Therefore, on demographics alone the 1.28 million Brexit majority is now c. 1.72 million Remain majority.
But even that doesn't factor in the economic deterioration since Brexit. Now polls are telling us out of 20 voters 11 say we were wrong to leave, 6 say we were right to leave, 3 are undecided. If you ignore the undecided, that is 64-36% that think we were wrong to leave.
Somebody needs to explain to Reeves, we've fallen off a cliff, we're on a ledge, the ledge is cracking, there's a rope dangling there back to the top but - no - let's stay on the ledge and see if Trump jumps on it so we plummet still further.
1. The first of those sources makes no mention of 2.5%.It's not hard to find various reports online detailing the continuing effect on the country's economy of the awful Brexit deal. Here's one:
Brexit deal impact 'worsening', economists say
The findings come from a report covering the three-year period after the Brexit deal was signed.www.bbc.co.uk
Here's the Statista report (yes it's annual to be fair but the point is the same).
Brexit effect on GDP forecast 2024 | Statista
A recent analysis on the impact of Brexit suggests that in 2023, the United Kingdom's economy was 2.5 percent smaller than it would have been in a base scenario where the UK never left the EU.
But it's about to get a lot worse as the one country we were told we'd get a free trade deal with has just elected an ultra-nationalist and protectionist who will immediately introduce tariffs on imports. No doubt some on this thread will blame that on Labour too, instead of a guy who's just put the healthcare of his country into the hands of an anti-vaxx conspiracy theorist.
In short, Brexit will continue to f**k us over, maybe forever and according to both Statista and the original Sky report I linked to, in an increasingly bad way.
2. The second refers to “recent reports suggest….” without giving a source without me creating a login. If you’ve the original source please let us have it.
3. The Sky report refers to another article which reveals that the original report was commissioned by that well-known neutral Sadiq Khan.
And I still don’t get how adding 2.5 to 1.1 gives an astronomical GDP growth way above Europe and approaching US/China levels.
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,689
No. None of my comments about part-time workers were intended to imply that people on minimum wage can't have full time jobs.
nicko31
Well-known member
If we did re-join the CU it would be mean no control over doing new trade deals.
But lets be honest most are cut and paste, one or two have fringe benefits and one or two are actually worse.
Leaving the EU CU no net gain, instead just red tape which is strangling biz with our biggest trading partner
worthingweird
Well-known member
- Mar 8, 2023
- 364
Blame the remainers in parliament blocking everything...
Rdodge30
Well-known member
- Dec 30, 2022
- 786
No it’s the reduction of the starting point on paying employees NI to £5000 … less than £100 a week - which is bringing nearly all the part time workers in the country into the increased employers NI contributions
HisBetterBall
New member
- Sep 5, 2023
- 20
Its alright, england will carry on going down for the next 5 years and after that people will get sick of it and have an uproar
Rdodge30
Well-known member
- Dec 30, 2022
- 786
It’s astonishing the amount of people in this forum that think it was a good budget. The burden placed on small businesses will be too much for some and the burden placed on large businesses will without doubt be passed on to the workforce- directly through wage growth and redundancy and indirectly through price increases and inflation. I’m still scratching my head over where the “increased productivity “ is coming from … you simply cannot put that much extra in the outgoings column and increase productivity or growth in the economy
From 3.30 to 4.35. Badenoch is just like half of you on this thread. You want all of the measures but can't say how you'll pay for it.
hart's shirt
Well-known member
Exactly, Pav. It's a combination of self-delusion and/or cowardice why Labour are saying 'no' to the Customs Union at the very least.
The only voters Labour would 'lose' are the ones that didn't and wouldn't vote for them anyway. And then there are those confirmed centrists like me who'd happily vote Labour for the foreseeable future on this single issue if they would be brave enough to admit that Britain made a mistake but they're prepared to risk some predictable right wing blowhard bombast by sorting it out.
America isn't going to come to the rescue. In a increasingly protectionist Trump world, Britain's isolationist position is just economic self-harm.
And it doesn't have to be this way.
As you say, utter madness.
Rdodge30
Well-known member
- Dec 30, 2022
- 786
Weak argument from you.
If we all took that attitude literally then nobody would be able to criticise anybody in any walk of life unless they could do the job better or even just do the job
All we can do is comment on actions taken. This budget will cause more problems than it solves in my opinion and I am ok to say that without the whole what would you do better nonsense.
I’m sceptical.
Sceptical that there would be £140billion for Green projects … or even the half that was quickly reduced to.
Sceptical that there will be the quoted investment from energy business in the new energy efficiency projects of the Government
Sceptical that there will be 40,000 more NHS appointments a week (unless we change the way in which we calculate them like we did the National debt)
Sceptical that we will build double the amount of houses per year that we have previously, every year of this Government
What I am not sceptical of is the end result of this budget on the workforce.
Because it is obvious how it is going to affect businesses directly and the workforce indirectly.
Typical Socialist solution whereby it will be the business sector that ends up being responsible for people being poorer - not the government. “We protected people’s wage slips”
The chancellor has said word for word that it is up to businesses to either accept lower profits or reduce wage growth for the workforce in order to offset the extra costs
However where you and I do agree is that we are better off than we were with Boris or Truss
(thought I’d get it in first this time)
Pavilionaire
Well-known member
- Jul 7, 2003
- 31,318
Because Labour have committed to Brexit and the Tories have sold their soul to Brexit both parties have handed the Lib Dems a once in a lifetime opportunity to offer the 64% of voters who want an end to this madness a way out.
If the Lib Dems had the balls to commit to rejoining a Customs Union then they'd be the one party delivering on growth, delivering on mental health, delivering on cutting pollution and having a policy that would clearly and transparently fund all of it, with cash to spare.
If there is any other way back for our economy other than Customs Union then someone - and I don't care what political persuasion they are, I'm all ears - tell me what it is.
From what I'm hearing Labour have over-cooked the attack on employers. Too much too quickly with NI, National Minimum Wage and the abolition of zero hours contracts. They should have done more with wealth taxes.
Example: I've just done a Tax Return for a wife who has sold / gifted £4 million worth of property left to her by her deceased husband. £NIL Inheritance Tax and - because of the preservation of the uplift on death to probate value - £NIL CGT. These were properties purchased mainly in the 80s and 90s relatively cheaply that have generated rental profits the whole time of ownership.
This is SO obviously excessively generous, it perpetuates - even exacerbates - wealth inequality and deprives the Exchequer of tax revenue we cannot afford to do without.
They are keeping their cards under the table for the next election.
I believe that the majority of voters (in this country and certainly America) vote on their own personal economic outlook. Imagine the genuine promises Labour can make to voters about improving their financial lot if they campaign on rejoining the EU in the next election. Most people will have learned by then that the loss of some powers to the EU is more than balanced out with the economic gain they’d see if we rejoined. By 2029, you could be making most families at least £1,000 better off PA by trashing Brexit.
Starmer should put his balls on the line and promise a return to growth on the EU if Labour are re-elected. Sod another referendum.