[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

Sirnormangall · Nov 9, 2024

Triggaaar said:
Trump doesn't want to trade with Russia anyway, so why would he want to end sanctions?

Even if Ukraine have less support, I'm not sure how Russia could win.

Russia can’t win. It has already lost. Putin failed to achieve his objectives, lost the lives of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers, depleted his armed forces, destroyed his economy, expanded NATO membership and even if he gains more of or even all of Ukraine, Russia will be despised by the Ukrainian people for generations to come for the atrocities they’ve committed which would render any territorial gains worthless and difficult to govern.

Triggaaar · Nov 9, 2024

Sirnormangall said:
Russia can’t win. It has already lost. Putin failed to achieve his objectives, lost the lives of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers, depleted his armed forces, destroyed his economy, expanded NATO membership

I hope you're right.

Sirnormangall said:
and even if he gains more of or even all of Ukraine, Russia will be despised by the Ukrainian people for generations to come for the atrocities they’ve committed which would render any territorial gains worthless and difficult to govern.

I disagree. Those lands would be difficult to govern if they kept the citizens alive, but they can kill them/send them packing etc. The populace also seem very susceptible to propaganda. I don't think it would be a problem for Russia. They must not be allowed to keep the land.

raymondo · Nov 10, 2024

Sirnormangall said:
Russia can’t win. It has already lost. Putin failed to achieve his objectives, lost the lives of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers, depleted his armed forces, destroyed his economy, expanded NATO membership and even if he gains more of or even all of Ukraine, Russia will be despised by the Ukrainian people for generations to come for the atrocities they’ve committed which would render any territorial gains worthless and difficult to govern.

I agree with your first half, but Ukrainians wouldn't stand much chance of survival if Russia takes the country. Men will be either conscripted into Russian army, killed, or flee. Yes, there would be some resistance, maybe severe, at first, but sadly I think Russian 'methods' would prevail.

Triggaaar · Nov 10, 2024

raymondo said:
I agree with your first half, but Ukrainians wouldn't stand much chance of survival if Russia takes the country. Men will be either conscripted into Russian army, killed, or flee. Yes, there would be some resistance, maybe severe, at first, but sadly I think Russian 'methods' would prevail.

Exactly this. Russia must be prevented from taking the country, and must be kicked out of the occupied areas. There must be no 'they can keep it for now but we won't recognise it' bullshit, because it would never ever return.

raymondo · Nov 10, 2024

Large Russian drone attack on Odessa last night

sparkie · Nov 10, 2024

maffew said:
Worrying times, Trump is literally immune from anything now, carte Blanche to do wtf he likes. Can see him pulling US out of NATO, internet will be a free for all, imagine if he assigned Musk to creating new weapons.. speculative I know but not that far fetched imo..

King Donald I of the USA, absolute monarch above the law, gets crowned in January.

He does need 2/3rds Senate approval to pull the US out of NATO, but he can just refuse to use any troops.

How did it come to this ?

raymondo · Nov 10, 2024

Here's a video of the Russian base in Rostov hit by Ukrainian drones containing pellet rounds.
Video is from a Russian soldier. He insists there were zero casualties...hmmm. But towards the end says," they say it's calm in Russia...no f**king way".

raymondo · Nov 10, 2024

France is supplying more Scalp and Mistral missiles - keep 'em coming.
Interesting article: France is training 2000 Ukrainian soldiers (2 month course) and also opening facilities in Ukraine to maintain and repair equipment.

France to deliver more Scalp and Mistral missiles to Ukraine

France is set to send Ukraine an additional batch of Scalp missiles and Mistral air defense missiles, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu said in an interview published on Nov. 9 in Le Journal du Dimanche.

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raymondo · Nov 10, 2024

Some examples of Russian businesses in serious financial trouble.

Sirnormangall · Nov 10, 2024

Triggaaar said:
I hope you're right.

I disagree. Those lands would be difficult to govern if they kept the citizens alive, but they can kill them/send them packing etc. The populace also seem very susceptible to propaganda. I don't think it would be a problem for Russia. They must not be allowed to keep the land.

I just feel that Russia has found it difficult enough to keep a lid on Chechnya over the years and would find it more challenging to govern any Ukrainian territory it might gain. But like you I hope that will never be tested.

Sirnormangall · Nov 10, 2024

raymondo said:
Some examples of Russian businesses in serious financial trouble.

Wow, interest rate of 21%! Unsustainable.

Eric the meek · Nov 11, 2024

Russia hikes taxes.

TLDR: There are over 200 companies still operating in Russia. If they wish to sell up and leave, they can now take only 50% of the (market) price, and that 50% is now taxed at 40%. So they make f' all, and won't be going back to Russia. Some exiting companies' assets are seized by the state and nationalised. And then the receiving body is then taxed at 50% on the newly acquired assets.

The reason for all this of course, is that Russia is running out of money, and it needs to get more revenue from wherever it can.

raymondo · Nov 11, 2024

Who knows what was actually said but it's interesting.
Russia hasn't done a great job of being nice to Trump
- they 'officially' supported Harris for the election (upset Trump)
- Russian state TV congratulated Trump on his victory by showing as many naked photos of Melania as they could find.
Hmmm ...go, Donald.

Eric the meek · Nov 11, 2024

raymondo said:
Who knows what was actually said but it's interesting.
Russia hasn't done a great job of being nice to Trump
- they 'officially' supported Harris for the election (upset Trump)
- Russian state TV congratulated Trump on his victory by showing as many naked photos of Melania as they could find.
Hmmm ...go, Donald.

The mocking of Melania Trump, whatever you think of her and Trump, is unacceptable. It's as if Putin deliberately wants to scupper the peace talks before they begin.
It's a fundamental miscalculation.

I suspect he is dismissing the whole idea of peace, and peace talks. It may be that he is judging Trump by his own low standards, and therefore regards it as some kind of trap that must be swerved.

But surely at the very least, he wants the sanctions to be lifted? His country is running out of money, has runaway inflation, and a 21% base rate. He resides in his own universe.

raymondo · Nov 11, 2024

Eric the meek said:
The mocking of Melania Trump, whatever you think of her and Trump, is unacceptable. It's as if Putin deliberately wants to scupper the peace talks before they begin.
It's a fundamental miscalculation.

I suspect he is dismissing the whole idea of peace, and peace talks. It may be that he is judging Trump by his own low standards, and therefore regards it as some kind of trap that must be swerved.

But surely at the very least, he wants the sanctions to be lifted? His country is running out of money, has runaway inflation, and a 21% base rate. He resides in his own universe.

Yes, all of that

. Disrespectful of the new US president and first lady; and to think that, so far, Trump has been overly respectful of Putin IMO.
Putin still playing the tough guy who thinks he holds all the cards.

timbha · Nov 11, 2024

raymondo said:
Yes, all of that . Disrespectful of the new US president and first lady; and to think that, so far, Trump has been overly respectful of Putin IMO.
Putin still playing the tough guy who thinks he holds all the cards.

Just hope it’s another massive mis judgement by Putin that pisses off Trump so much that he arms Ukraine to the hilt. Alternatively Putin may be acting like this to strengthen Russia’s support from China, Iran etc.

Or maybe it’s all propaganda

BenGarfield · Nov 11, 2024

Eric the meek said:
Russia hikes taxes.

TLDR: There are over 200 companies still operating in Russia. If they wish to sell up and leave, they can now take only 50% of the (market) price, and that 50% is now taxed at 40%. So they make f' all, and won't be going back to Russia. Some exiting companies' assets are seized by the state and nationalised. And then the receiving body is then taxed at 50% on the newly acquired assets.

The reason for all this of course, is that Russia is running out of money, and it needs to get more revenue from wherever it can.

Russia can’t “run out” of money. No nation with its own fiat currency can run out of the thing which it is the monopoly producer of.

Eric the meek · Nov 11, 2024

BenGarfield said:
Russia can’t “run out” of money. No nation with its own fiat currency can run out of the thing which it is the monopoly producer of.

But Russia can run out of reserves, which it uses to periodically buy rubles to prop up the currency. I know what you're saying - that Russia can just print more rubles. Yes, it can. But that brings its own problems; the more you print, the less it's worth in terms of what it buys.

It is entirely possible that this is what Putin will insist the Bank of Russia does. Or he may have a cunning plan. Did you see him hand Elvira Nabiullina a false 'BRICS' currency banknote at the recent BRICS conference?

Triggaaar · Nov 11, 2024

BenGarfield said:
Russia can’t “run out” of money. No nation with its own fiat currency can run out of the thing which it is the monopoly producer of.

I think you're missing the point. It doesn't matter how much they print if it's worthless

BenGarfield · Nov 11, 2024

Sirnormangall said:
Wow, interest rate of 21%! Unsustainable.

Big mistake hiking interest rates that high in an attempt to control inflation as a result of their booming economy. Reminiscent of the Thatcher government of the early eighties - although our economy wasn’t booming. They should set interest rates to 0%.

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