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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*
- Thread starter Zeberdi
- Start date
I’ve loaded up both trays on the printer and checked the toner. Is it ok if I get myself off home now?
nwgull
Well-known member
It was, but the number of mail-in votes was unprecedented due to Covid.
Pennsylvania seems promising though. Allegheny seems to be outperforming 2020 based on 1/3rd of vote.
Suggestions that Sun belt is moving right but rust belt going left. If that is the case, that could/should be enough.
- Oct 17, 2008
- 14,326
Were loose…
I hate to keep doing this, but Pennsylvania is still favouring the Republicans, although it’s tighter than both Georgia and North Carolina when I was accused of going too early.
We’re still where we were: holding onto the expected Michigan win and flipping Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
All three are close and could go either way.
It’s not outside the realms of possibility that Trump could win all seven swing states.
Brian Fantana
Well-known member
Sadly I'm calling it for Trump and going to bed. Suspect he'll end up with around 285 EC votes.
- Nov 11, 2009
- 12,236
- Oct 20, 2022
- 6,813
- Thread starter
- #8,668
All swing States too early to call - counties vary considerably (NE PA the strongest Democratic areas in the State) - rural areas are also less populated so those results will come in before urban areas because there is less votes to count - rural areas tend to be Republican strongholds, it’s the densely packed urban areas that are pro-Democrat and those votes will come in last. This is why we are seeing Trump creeping so far ahead in some of the swing States Then in PA tomorrow, counting will start on the thousands of mail-in ballots which typically favor Democrats.
It’s like weighing yourself everyday rather than once a week - probably best not to as one’s weight goes up and down!
I’m not looking at the counts particularly.All swing States too early to call - counties vary considerably (NE PA the strongest Democratic areas in the State) - rural areas are also less populated so those results will come in before urban areas because there is less votes to count - rural areas tend to be Republican strongholds, it’s the densely packed urban areas that are pro-Democrat and those votes will come in last. This is why we are seeing Trump creeping so far ahead in some of the swing States Then in PA tomorrow, counting will start on the thousands of mail-in ballots which typically favor Democrats.
It’s like weighing yourself everyday rather than once a week - probably best not to as one’s weight goes up and down!
The betting markets are my guide.
North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona are all Trump, and approaching “dead cert” territory.
Momentum favouring him in all of the other four.
The overall trend is not for Harris at all anywhere.
Nottseagull
Well-known member
It looks like Trump's support on this thread is 0% yet he appears to be surging in the USA. Is that because we all hate Putin but most Americans don't care about Ukraine?
Republicans now edging Michigan.
I’m going to catch a few hours sleep - seems little point watching this unfold from here.
We need a huge f***ing miracle.
I’m going to catch a few hours sleep - seems little point watching this unfold from here.
We need a huge f***ing miracle.
Nottseagull
Well-known member
If it's all gloom and doom for us, just imagine what the Ukrainians must be thinking right now.
hampshirebrightonboy
Well-known member
- Sep 3, 2011
- 1,022
Not sure I’m able to sleep with this disaster unfolding
Pavilionaire
Well-known member
- Jul 7, 2003
- 31,241
Harris's numbers are generally higher than Bidens 4 years ago, and so this race is very much alive.
not unless its celery
- Nov 11, 2009
- 12,236
Not in Michighan or Virginia rn
Klaas
I've changed this
- Nov 1, 2017
- 2,656
That in itself should be enough to disqualify this c*** from running. Even after the violence of 4 years ago, still inciting people with his lies.
Drop in the ocean though.
- Oct 20, 2022
- 6,813
- Thread starter
- #8,680
Surely actual voting is more reliable than relying on polymarket etc - doesn’t that just tell you who the betters think will win based on the current snapshot of time - that is why there has been so much fluctuation in the betting market? ie for weeks betting was way out of synch with polling because of Trump’s rhetoric largely - then came Iowa.
- it’s been Trump leading the narrative that the betting markets were more accurate than the polls to suit his ‘election was a steal’ agenda should he lose.
Don’t despair yet - as I said above, we’re seeing a lot of red at the moment because the rural votes are finishing counting much faster that the densely populated Democratic urban areas - I suspect the betting markets are reacting to that.
MSN saying swing States still too early to call - including ones she must win
“With 35% of the expected vote counted in Wisconsin, the presidential race is too close to call.”
“With 14% of the expected vote counted in Michigan, the presidential race is too close to call.”
“Pennsylvania too close to call - 48% expected votes in (Est. remaining 3,660,000)”
Donald Trump | R | 0 | 1,609,336 | 50.1% |
Kamala Harris | D | 0 | 1,575,461 | 49.0% |
Chase Oliver | I | 0 | 14,740 | 0.5% |
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