Nottseagull
Well-known member
So the winner, by however slender a margin, gets ALL that state's Electoral College allocation? That's just like the discredited British trades union block vote system!
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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*
- Thread starter Zeberdi
- Start date
nwgull
Well-known member
Bit early for that?
Donald Trump has received a ten-point boost with independent voters in the crucial swing state of Georgia and secured the majority of that group overall, exit poll data suggests.
Trump secured more than 54 per cent of the independent vote, who made up almost a third of the total electorate, in a significant boost to the former president in the closest state at the last election.
He also managed to maintain support from women in Georgia, winning an one-point increase to around 46 per cent of the female vote. He also won 55 per cent of the male vote.
The former president did not see an expected surge with black men, who gave him an unchanged 16 per cent of their vote, but did see a notable six-point jump among Hispanics.
Trump’s support may have been driven by anger about federal aid after two hurricanes in the last two months. Voters were split 50-50 on whether hurricane aid had reached the right people. Of those who thought it had not, 75 per cent voted for Trump.
Joe Biden won Georgia in 2020 by just 0.02 per cent of the vote, securing its 16 electoral college delegates.
Again, it comes down to what credence you put in the betting marktets.
As I've said, I do trust the markets to generally get it right. Market participants will know what they are doing, and be far better at analysing data from all channels than I can. And the market now gives Trump an 83% chance in Georgia. As I type, CNN have just said the Harris camp is "worried about Georgia and North Carolina".
Way way way too early.
Almost all of the vote counting for Georgia so far is early in person voting, which is pretty much always strong for Rs.
This is part of the red mirage that everyone was told would happen early on.
Again, I’m not saying Harris is going to win. Just that nothing that has happened so far has been “off script”.
No - it's the exit polls being strongly in favour of Trump, particularly the massive swing of independent voters.
Looking at the graphics on various news sites it looks worrying for Harris?
Or is it too early to be worried?
Or is it too early to be worried?
It's looking very worrying.
I'm now deep down in my Brexit-like gloom.
I'm going to wait for these first Philly votes to come in shortly, and possibly head to bed.
Trump gaining with minorities in North Carolina
Donald Trump is gaining ground with minority voters in North Carolina, according to new data.
The former president is up 5 per cent with black voters, including a 13 per cent increase among black men.
New polling has Trump up 7 per cent with Latino voters, including a 16 per cent rise from Latino women.
Against predictions, he also appears to be up 8 per cent with younger voters (aged 18-29) but down among older voters by 7 per cent
Donald Trump is gaining ground with minority voters in North Carolina, according to new data.
The former president is up 5 per cent with black voters, including a 13 per cent increase among black men.
New polling has Trump up 7 per cent with Latino voters, including a 16 per cent rise from Latino women.
Against predictions, he also appears to be up 8 per cent with younger voters (aged 18-29) but down among older voters by 7 per cent
I’m up on shift so will be seeing how it unfolds.
FatSuperman
Well-known member
- Feb 25, 2016
- 2,916
Yep I have to call it a night as well. Hoping to wake up with three points in the bag for the good guys. <3
- Oct 20, 2022
- 6,813
- Thread starter
- #8,635
It’s that swing to Trump amongst independents that I find really worrying - suggesting that left wing and right wing voters are voting for populist reasons rather than traditional conservative or Democrat values.
How many independents are in Pennsylvania?
Over 1.3 million Pennsylvanians are registered independents/third parties - (over 14.5% of all registered PA voters)—while Democratic and Republican registration has been steadily declining over the past decade.
“Independent voters are split right down the middle (44% to 43%), while also making up the largest share of still-undecided voters. Add in the fact that Pennsylvania is the top swing state in the country, and it becomes clear: winning among PA Independent voters means winning the election.”
I’m not too bothered about any of these red or blue States being called to type - they are likely to stay loyal. It’s the three States of Michigan, Wisconsin and PA which are the ones Harris needs to win the WH - winning the independent vote along with new voters in PA will prove crucial to Harris.
Ballot PA
Ballot PA is a coalition of good-government, civic and business organizations committed open, free and fair elections in Pennsylvania.
www.ballotpa.org
- Nov 11, 2009
- 12,236
But N Carolina is looking good early doors. Hope it holds
Harris making a bit of ground.
But Trump surging ahead.
But Trump surging ahead.
- Nov 11, 2009
- 12,236
It's not, I'm afraid. Current chances for Trump to win:But N Carolina is looking good early doors. Hope it holds
Arizona: 87%
Georgie 85%
North Carolina: 74%
Nevada: 64%
Wisconsin: 62%
Pennsylvania: 59%
Michigan: 41%
We need Michigan to hold and turnarounds in Penn. and Wisconsin.
I'm going to bed. I might even say a little prayer.