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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

  • President Joe Biden - Democrat

    Votes: 3 0.7%

  • Donald Trump - Republican

    Votes: 173 41.9%

  • Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

    Votes: 217 52.5%

  • Other Democratic candidate tbc

    Votes: 20 4.8%
  • Total voters
    413
  • This poll will close: .


Eric the meek

Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,038
dwayne said:
If he goes into NATO territory Russia will get blown to smitherines whether USA are in or not.

Won't happen.
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Smithereens. I admire your confidence, but the reality is rather different.

He doesn't have to go into NATO territory. He takes the line of least resistance. The invasion is a rarity. More often he operates at arms length, sowing division, disruption, meddling in elections. He takes advantage of countries which play both sides (Hungary, Slovakia, Turkey). He agitates using false flags, sending in advance forces e.g, in Donbas, Transnistria, inventing persecution of Russian speakers, and then 'offers' to go in and save them.

That's how Russia conquered numerous Siberian tribes and became the largest country on earth. The isolated Siberian tribes didn't realise that the aggressors and the saviours were both sent by Moscow.
 




peterward

peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,245
dwayne said:
The Republicans are entering election day with a historic lead in a majority of states, figures show.

This is the first time that registered Republicans have outvoted registered Democrats in more states since at least 2008, with early voting traditionally favoured by Democrats.

Across two-thirds of states that produce early voting data by party, registered Republicans outperformed the Democrats in votes cast.

Don't know if meaningful but interesting.
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What does in a majority of states mean? There's always plenty of states they will always win, it's the swing and purple states that count and polling is tied and pretty much within margin or error in all, nobody can say right now that either has a convincing lead in the states that will decide election.

You do realise that republicans in 2020 told voters not to vote by mail in ballot and on polling day only and this time told opposite. What % of those voters are those cannibalised voters who would've voted today but instead voted earlier because they were told too? Yep, nobody can say. In all states that count you have around 20% of independents. How will they break? Presently by over 10 points towards Harris.

Both sides can read positive and negative into a very hard to discern complex picture.

Trump may well win, but I still believe and hope Harris will prevail.
 


Stato

Stato

Well-known member
Dec 21, 2011
7,347
dwayne said:
The Republicans are entering election day with a historic lead in a majority of states, figures show.

This is the first time that registered Republicans have outvoted registered Democrats in more states since at least 2008, with early voting traditionally favoured by Democrats.

Across two-thirds of states that produce early voting data by party, registered Republicans outperformed the Democrats in votes cast.

Don't know if meaningful but interesting.
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This is exactly the sort of thing I mean when talking about the dangers of uncontrolled communication. Here's the MSN link to the Telegraph article that reports that:


The media's business model is based on making money from clicks, so prints that headline because it'll get clicks. If you read past the headline, you find that, in terms of swing states, the data is from Nevada and North Carolina only. North Carolina has been close, but isn't really expected to go blue. Trump won it at both of his previous elections. Most people won't read past the headline, so leave without a full understanding of what's been reported, but will still run off to another part of the internet to share their interpretation. Things become something else in such speed that it makes your head spin. It's like watching evolution in action.
 
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Zeberdi

Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,824
Giraffe said:
I hope Trump wins. He will out Russia/Ukraine rather than escalating things which is in all our interests. No coincidence that this didn't happen under his watch.
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:nono:

news.sky.com

US election: How will the vote impact Ukraine war, China, Europe and the Middle East?

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have different policies and attitudes to their allies and enemies around the world - so the results of this election could have consequences far beyond America.
news.sky.com news.sky.com

www.bbc.co.uk

How this US election could change state of the world

Our chief international correspondent Lyse Doucet hears from leading experts about what's at stake ahead of the vote.
www.bbc.co.uk
 


Chicken Run

Chicken Run

Member Since Jul 2003
NSC Patron
Jul 17, 2003
19,774
Valley of Hangleton
Hugo Rune said:
The protectionist tariffs that he is threatening to impose on US imports could really affect British businesses. This could impact growth, jobs and prices in the UK.

Pulling out of NATO and withdrawing support for Ukraine could be catastrophic (I work with a very worried Ukrainian who sees the result of the US electionnas existential).

Longer term, Trump does not believe in climate change. The US should be leading the world on this. He’ll surely pull them out of various commitments and treaties again pushing back serious action against climate change another 4 years at least.

But in all honestly as has been posted on this thread, Trump has run for President to look after No.1. If elected he’ll quash all the ongoing cases against him and will surely spend most of the time on the golf course. The question then is, who will he bring in to actually run the country?
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Thank you for providing a decent response, all very concerning but i guess it’s their country so I will try not to worry or become hysterical about things out of my control.
 




sparkie

sparkie

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
13,255
Hove
Hugo Rune said:
The protectionist tariffs that he is threatening to impose on US imports could really affect British businesses. This could impact growth, jobs and prices in the UK.

Pulling out of NATO and withdrawing support for Ukraine could be catastrophic (I work with a very worried Ukrainian who sees the result of the US electionnas existential).

Longer term, Trump does not believe in climate change. The US should be leading the world on this. He’ll surely pull them out of various commitments and treaties again pushing back serious action against climate change another 4 years at least.

But in all honestly as has been posted on this thread, Trump has run for President to look after No.1. If elected he’ll quash all the ongoing cases against him and will surely spend most of the time on the golf course. The question then is, who will he bring in to actually run the country?
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The Cigarette Smoking Man.
 


Thunder Bolt

Thunder Bolt

Silly old bat
Aug 18, 2009
67,805
Beside the seaside, beside the sea


sparkie

sparkie

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
13,255
Hove
Stato said:
I'm a bit of a politics geek, always stay up for our general elections and generally the US ones too. I won't be watching any of this because I've come to the depressing belief that today's election will not be about watching democracy in action.

The fact that the Republicans chose a candidate who showed last time around that he would not accept the result, and that the events of January 6th 2021 did not scare them back from the brink suggests to me that further bloodshed is extremely likely to follow these results.

If Trump wins he has been clear on his plans for immigrants and the threat to women's health is obvious. If Trump loses, every effort will be made to change the result through state officials, congress and a supreme court that has shown itself repeatedly willing to put members' partisan beliefs above the rule of law. If attempts are unsuccessful, the judiciary will probably play the role of Mike Pence. There will be corruption, illegality, threats of violence and eventually, actual violence.

We're in the death throes of democratic capitalism. The latter has weakened the former to such an extent that it's become obvious that no election is going to halt the decline. It's the irrationality and abandonment of enlightenment values that is so terrifying. We are living through an age that history will see as an inexplicable return to the dark ages. A worldwide psychosis that seems to have been created by technology offering communication at a level that humankind did not have the wherewithall to control.

I'm out. I'll watch the Bake-off and go to bed with a book. I'd advise everyone to do similar. The fall out won't be tonight or tomorrow. It will go on for weeks at least.
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Sadly it is this.

Social Media needed to be shut down ages ago. It might already be too late.
 














K

Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
58,774
hassocks
Bozza said:
Betfair odds are roughly Trump 60 / 40 Harris as we enter the big day.

Listening to 5Live as I was over the Downs with the dog from 6am and Trump was rambling on and on in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

We know that's the last campaign rally he'll ever do for himself. Let's hope that in no more than a few days from now he's finished as a political force. The alternative is quite chilling to consider.
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Few quid on Harris for me I think.
 


nicko31

nicko31

Well-known member
Jan 7, 2010
18,524
Gods country fortnightly
Stato said:
I'm a bit of a politics geek, always stay up for our general elections and generally the US ones too. I won't be watching any of this because I've come to the depressing belief that today's election will not be about watching democracy in action.

The fact that the Republicans chose a candidate who showed last time around that he would not accept the result, and that the events of January 6th 2021 did not scare them back from the brink suggests to me that further bloodshed is extremely likely to follow these results.

If Trump wins he has been clear on his plans for immigrants and the threat to women's health is obvious. If Trump loses, every effort will be made to change the result through state officials, congress and a supreme court that has shown itself repeatedly willing to put members' partisan beliefs above the rule of law. If attempts are unsuccessful, the judiciary will probably play the role of Mike Pence. There will be corruption, illegality, threats of violence and eventually, actual violence.

We're in the death throes of democratic capitalism. The latter has weakened the former to such an extent that it's become obvious that no election is going to halt the decline. It's the irrationality and abandonment of enlightenment values that is so terrifying. We are living through an age that history will see as an inexplicable return to the dark ages. A worldwide psychosis that seems to have been created by technology offering communication at a level that humankind did not have the wherewithall to control.

I'm out. I'll watch the Bake-off and go to bed with a book. I'd advise everyone to do similar. The fall out won't be tonight or tomorrow. It will go on for weeks at least.
Click to expand...
We may dodge a bullet this time, we may not. Even if we do and Trump disappears or is ultimately jailed he has changed US politics in that the conservative side takes the view that getting power and personal financial enrichment is more important than democracy.

Its tragic things have come to this. I do envy the posters on here that have such a naive view of the world and are convinced certain honest actors are force for good.
 






Chicken Run

Chicken Run

Member Since Jul 2003
NSC Patron
Jul 17, 2003
19,774
Valley of Hangleton
Stato said:
I'm a bit of a politics geek, always stay up for our general elections and generally the US ones too. I won't be watching any of this because I've come to the depressing belief that today's election will not be about watching democracy in action.

The fact that the Republicans chose a candidate who showed last time around that he would not accept the result, and that the events of January 6th 2021 did not scare them back from the brink suggests to me that further bloodshed is extremely likely to follow these results.

If Trump wins he has been clear on his plans for immigrants and the threat to women's health is obvious. If Trump loses, every effort will be made to change the result through state officials, congress and a supreme court that has shown itself repeatedly willing to put members' partisan beliefs above the rule of law. If attempts are unsuccessful, the judiciary will probably play the role of Mike Pence. There will be corruption, illegality, threats of violence and eventually, actual violence.

We're in the death throes of democratic capitalism. The latter has weakened the former to such an extent that it's become obvious that no election is going to halt the decline. It's the irrationality and abandonment of enlightenment values that is so terrifying. We are living through an age that history will see as an inexplicable return to the dark ages. A worldwide psychosis that seems to have been created by technology offering communication at a level that humankind did not have the wherewithall to control.

I'm out. I'll watch the Bake-off and go to bed with a book. I'd advise everyone to do similar. The fall out won't be tonight or tomorrow. It will go on for weeks at least.
Click to expand...
Do you stay up for any other countries elections or just UK & US?
 


Commander

Commander

Arrogant Prat
NSC Patron
Apr 28, 2004
13,534
London
Thunder Bolt said:
www.bbc.co.uk

Trump says he would 'encourage' Russia to attack Nato allies who do not pay their bills

The US presidential hopeful says he would not protect any country failing to pay its bills.
www.bbc.co.uk
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I've never understood why this is so controversial. The agreement is 2% and we all defend each other. Why should one country lose lives of their citizens to protect another that didn't stick to the deal?

I get that the way he says it is confrontational, antagonistic and uncomfortable, but I think the underlying sentiment is correct, and is probably good for NATO in the long run.
 






Bold Seagull

Bold Seagull

strong and stable with me, or...
Mar 18, 2010
30,436
Hove
Commander said:
I've never understood why this is so controversial. The agreement is 2% and we all defend each other. Why should one country lose lives of their citizens to protect another that didn't stick to the deal?

I get that the way he says it is confrontational, antagonistic and uncomfortable, but I think the underlying sentiment is correct, and is probably good for NATO in the long run.
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He didn’t say he wouldn’t defend them, or would allow them to be attacked - he said he would ENCOURAGE an aggressor to attack them. I mean is there any underlying sentiment left after that? Putting a gun to the head of your allies who might not have the economic resources you do is surely no way to operate an ‘alliance’ - more like a protection racket!
 
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