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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

  • President Joe Biden - Democrat

    Votes: 3 0.7%

  • Donald Trump - Republican

    Votes: 173 41.9%

  • Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

    Votes: 217 52.5%

  • Other Democratic candidate tbc

    Votes: 20 4.8%
  • Total voters
    413
  • This poll will close: .


Kalimantan Gull

Kalimantan Gull

Well-known member
Aug 13, 2003
13,429
Central Borneo / the Lizard
Zeberdi said:
That’s just the betting that has changed - not sure the polls have - still to close to call? Different polls paint a different picture 🤔

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Latest Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com

latest polls- still neck and neck in swing states
www.aljazeera.com

Harris zeroes in on Michigan as Trump rehashes voter fraud claims

Harris travels to Michigan, while Trump is in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia for rallies.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com
Click to expand...
Well, there's the Selzer poll, and that's just completely changed the shape of the race for me. I'm still nervous about the result, but, it's the Selzer poll, THE gold standard in polling. The same poll that totally upended the perceived wisdom about the 2020 race, and to a lesser extent 2016, and was bang on both times. Harris even being close in Iowa seems ridiculous, let along being in front there, with the implications for what this means elsewhere, but Ann Selzer has spoken....
 




tedebear

tedebear

Legal Alien
NSC Patron
Jul 7, 2003
17,100
In my computer
Eurgh - did someone merge the threads? Back to this long winded dump of word salad.…well my last word salad on the subject is, if Trump gets in, we are going to have 4 years of stupidity, corruption and division. So I always say Harris is going to win, whether I believe it or not, simply as I refuse to accept the American people can be so stupid. The normalisation of Trumps behaviours are the serious issue here. Not sure what the answer is, but we can’t keep regurgitating it on clips and social media, like its acceptable.
 


Thunder Bolt

Thunder Bolt

Silly old bat
Aug 18, 2009
67,804
Beside the seaside, beside the sea
Triggaaar said:
Yes. If those who are undecided hear that one of the candidates is suddenly well ahead and 'everyone' is backing them, they can think 'well I guess if everyone else thinks they're the right person, they probably are'. That's why the Trump claims he has big crowds and claims the polls say he's winning, because Americans like to vote for winners.
Click to expand...
The camera man showed what he thought of Trump.

 




L

Lenny Rider

Well-known member
Sep 15, 2010
5,982
Does anyone recall the story of Chicken Lickin, who thought the sky was going to fall in?

Are we almost seeing this in the US?

Whatever the result tomorrow is there really going to be the unrest they are predicting?

Or is it all worse case scenario stuff, so when not as much actually happens the Yanks almost put a positive spin on it?
 




BBassic

BBassic

I changed this.
Jul 28, 2011
13,033
Lenny Rider said:
Does anyone recall the story of Chicken Lickin, who thought the sky was going to fall in?

Are we almost seeing this in the US?

Whatever the result tomorrow is there really going to be the unrest they are predicting?

Or is it all worse case scenario stuff, so when not as much actually happens the Yanks almost put a positive spin on it?
Click to expand...
I'm not sure "we had a democratic election and nobody got shot in the face" is much of a positive spin.
 




JBizzle

JBizzle

Well-known member
Apr 18, 2010
6,208
Seaford
Lenny Rider said:
Does anyone recall the story of Chicken Lickin, who thought the sky was going to fall in?

Are we almost seeing this in the US?

Whatever the result tomorrow is there really going to be the unrest they are predicting?

Or is it all worse case scenario stuff, so when not as much actually happens the Yanks almost put a positive spin on it?
Click to expand...
I think it's "hope for the best, prepare for the worst" in all scenarios with this election...
 






Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
55,889
Faversham
The two main concerns for me is the immediate cessation of support for Ukraine, and the diversion of support to Israel.

Trump backs Putin and Netanyahu. What a strategy.

And meanwhile he will complete his main purpose as president, which is to pardon himself from all the charges he is facing and and is about to face, and elevate a couple more nutters to the Supreme Court to ensure his elevation to untouchable status proceeds without issues.
 






peterward

peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,242
Kalimantan Gull said:
Well, there's the Selzer poll, and that's just completely changed the shape of the race for me. I'm still nervous about the result, but, it's the Selzer poll, THE gold standard in polling. The same poll that totally upended the perceived wisdom about the 2020 race, and to a lesser extent 2016, and was bang on both times. Harris even being close in Iowa seems ridiculous, let along being in front there, with the implications for what this means elsewhere, but Ann Selzer has spoken....
Click to expand...
It may have local elements. Obviously the female demographic voting Harris is big news if similar happens across other red Midwest states, but I also read that Iowa has a big soy farming industry and Trump shafted them last time around and they haven't forgotten.

What's also interesting, though not an exact science, is the Republicans comment to the Selzer +3 Harris poll, they say their internal polling shows Trump +5.

Well even if that's true and he carries Iowa, its still bad news and a uniform swing away from Trump.

In 2016 when he won electoral college he was +9.6 in Iowa, in 2020 when he lost he was +8 in Iowa, +5 is still bad for Trump if uniformly applied as a trend.
 


Zeberdi

Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,815
Kalimantan Gull said:
Well, there's the Selzer poll, and that's just completely changed the shape of the race for me. I'm still nervous about the result, but, it's the Selzer poll, THE gold standard in polling. The same poll that totally upended the perceived wisdom about the 2020 race, and to a lesser extent 2016, and was bang on both times. Harris even being close in Iowa seems ridiculous, let along being in front there, with the implications for what this means elsewhere, but Ann Selzer has spoken....
Click to expand...
True enough, yet still a left wing biased poll and Selzer herself has said voters could swing towards Trump on election day - the right biased Emerson poll had Trump ahead by 9 percentage points and the NYT/Siena poll has them dead heat in swing states.

( The New York Times/Siena College is also one of America's most trusted pollsters. Ranked first by 538 on its list of 282 for its historical track record and transparency. Analyst Nate Silver who runs 538, ‘ranks it in the top two firms, giving it an A+ grade’ so I think it could be just as credible as the Selzer poll.)

I’ve posted this previously but it is interesting Pew Research on polling accuracy

www.pewresearch.org

Key things to know about U.S. election polling in 2024

Polls are more useful to the public if people have realistic expectations about what surveys can do well – and what they cannot.
www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org
 






RandyWanger

RandyWanger

Je suis rôti de boeuf
Mar 14, 2013
6,688
Done a Frexit, now in London
Screenshot 2024-11-04 at 09.40.22.png
 


Kalimantan Gull

Kalimantan Gull

Well-known member
Aug 13, 2003
13,429
Central Borneo / the Lizard
Zeberdi said:
True enough, yet still a left wing biased poll and Selzer herself has said voters could swing towards Trump on election day - the right biased Emerson poll had Trump ahead by 9 percentage points and the NYT/Siena poll has them dead heat in swing states.

( The New York Times/Siena College is also one of America's most trusted pollsters. Ranked first by 538 on its list of 282 for its historical track record and transparency. Analyst Nate Silver who runs 538, ‘ranks it in the top two firms, giving it an A+ grade’ so I think it could be just as credible as the Selzer poll.)

I’ve posted this previously but it is interesting Pew Research on polling accuracy

www.pewresearch.org

Key things to know about U.S. election polling in 2024

Polls are more useful to the public if people have realistic expectations about what surveys can do well – and what they cannot.
www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org
Click to expand...
Well, Selzer is not a left wing biased poll. It's two biggest misses in the last two decades were overestimating the dems, yes, by 5 or 6 points, although apply that here and make it Trump+3, everyone on the left is happy. But in 2020, when everyone was predicting a Biden blowout, she came out with Trump +7 here and totally captured that it was a much closer race than everyone thought. Obviously Harris +3 this time is insane, but fair play to Selzer for putting it out and taking what comes.

NYT / Siena is the other gold standard, yes. And they have it close in the swing states. Will be interesting to see who does better in the end.
 




Kalimantan Gull

Kalimantan Gull

Well-known member
Aug 13, 2003
13,429
Central Borneo / the Lizard
peterward said:
It may have local elements. Obviously the female demographic voting Harris is big news if similar happens across other red Midwest states, but I also read that Iowa has a big soy farming industry and Trump shafted them last time around and they haven't forgotten.

What's also interesting, though not an exact science, is the Republicans comment to the Selzer +3 Harris poll, they say their internal polling shows Trump +5.

Well even if that's true and he carries Iowa, its still bad news and a uniform swing away from Trump.

In 2016 when he won electoral college he was +9.6 in Iowa, in 2020 when he lost he was +8 in Iowa, +5 is still bad for Trump if uniformly applied as a trend.
Click to expand...
It has local elements, sure. Selzer barely weights her polls, other than by district, sex, age, she just knows her state. But these trends are being seen across the plains. There is little-polled Kansas, with a Trump +5 poll getting a lot of attention. There's Nebraska with a recent Trump +15 from NYT/Siena, and a frankly ridiculous Trump+10 out of North Dakota (nah....).

Shifts coming from women, particularly senior women, as well as suburbs, college educated people as elsewhere, in states that are largely white. Obama did well here, and looks like Harris will too. This is good news for Harris in Wisconsin, and probably Michigan.

But PA and the sunbelt are different kettles if fish.
 




sparkie

sparkie

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
13,255
Hove
Zeberdi said:
True enough, yet still a left wing biased poll and Selzer herself has said voters could swing towards Trump on election day - the right biased Emerson poll had Trump ahead by 9 percentage points and the NYT/Siena poll has them dead heat in swing states.

( The New York Times/Siena College is also one of America's most trusted pollsters. Ranked first by 538 on its list of 282 for its historical track record and transparency. Analyst Nate Silver who runs 538, ‘ranks it in the top two firms, giving it an A+ grade’ so I think it could be just as credible as the Selzer poll.)

I’ve posted this previously but it is interesting Pew Research on polling accuracy

www.pewresearch.org

Key things to know about U.S. election polling in 2024

Polls are more useful to the public if people have realistic expectations about what surveys can do well – and what they cannot.
www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org
Click to expand...

The holy grail seems to be a non-biased poll ie. just an actual poll with no spin.

Is there one ?
 


Zeberdi

Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,815
Kalimantan Gull said:
It has local elements, sure. Selzer barely weights her polls, other than by district, sex, age, she just knows her state. But these trends are being seen across the plains. There is little-polled Kansas, with a Trump +5 poll getting a lot of attention. There's Nebraska with a recent Trump +15 from NYT/Siena, and a frankly ridiculous Trump+10 out of North Dakota (nah....).

Shifts coming from women, particularly senior women, as well as suburbs, college educated people as elsewhere, in states that are largely white. Obama did well here, and looks like Harris will too. This is good news for Harris in Wisconsin, and probably Michigan.

But PA and the sunbelt are different kettles if fish.
Click to expand...
Again I agree.

And just to be clear. I am not saying the Selzer poll is wrong in Iowa - just that I don’t know if Iowa is an anomaly nor how accurate the sampling is across all other polls.

It may be a landslide to Harris, Trump might win by a slimmest of margins - I feel sort of the way I did in our at the Constituency when we hoped to boot Truss with a first time, relatively unknown candidate against a sitting MP ex-PM in a very entrenched right wing Constituency - I wavered from confidence to despair and back again repeatedly until I felt it really was impossible to call. At the end of the day, the electorate voted against Truss but it was enough to get our guy in. I hope that will happen in the US with Pennsylvania and other swing States voting against Trump.

The key will be young peoole turning out and so far students are doing incredibly well mobilising early voters.
 


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