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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - Trump v Harris

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

  • President Joe Biden - Democrat

    Votes: 3 0.8%
  • Donald Trump - Republican

    Votes: 145 39.4%
  • Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

    Votes: 202 54.9%
  • Other Democratic candidate tbc

    Votes: 18 4.9%

  • Total voters
    368
  • This poll will close: .








Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,393
Brighton
Am I the only one who is confident Harris wins and by a significant margin?
I almost don’t want to say it out loud, but yes, when you look at the two campaigns and all the early signifiers, I think she probably wins fairly comfortably.
 




Iggle Piggle

Well-known member
Sep 3, 2010
5,898
I'm trying not to fall into the trap of wishful thinking, but I have a feeling that he has really shit the bed with women.

I think, in the end, it might not be very close
A few months ago, it was 50/50 in the betting. It's now 60/40 Trump.. That's a massive shift.

I'm curious how someone who lives in America sees why that has come about.. Presumably,.you think it should have gone the other way?

FWIW I think your point about women is a very valid one.
 




A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,328
Deepest, darkest Sussex
Am I the only one who is confident Harris wins and by a significant margin?
I’m pretty confident she’ll win the popular vote. It’s the f***ed up way the US does their election that worries me.
 


US Seagull

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
4,522
Cleveland, OH
A few months ago, it was 50/50 in the betting. It's now 60/40 Trump.. That's a massive shift.

I'm curious how someone who lives in America sees why that has come about.. Presumably,.you think it should have gone the other way?

FWIW I think your point about women is a very valid one.
Betting companies have been advertising on a lot of right wing media. I posted an example up there somewhere ^

It's probably about 50 pages back by now.
 






Greg Bobkin

Silver Seagull
May 22, 2012
15,869
Also the market is swinging back to Kamala now......a week ago trump was very clear favourite with the bookies
Not to mention the majority of people on this thread...

In reality, no-one's got a facking clue, but it fills airtime and social media for a few more days. So tedious.
 




Greg Bobkin

Silver Seagull
May 22, 2012
15,869




Seagull58

In the Algarve
Jan 31, 2012
8,412
Vilamoura, Portugal
They couldn't replicate it though - and her ballot was correct.


Did you see the one where they were complaining that Trump was 'too far down' the list of candidates and therefore that was somehow cheating as well because voters had to look for his name rather than having it immediately visible near the top (it was in alphabetical order).
It appears that they replicated it once by touching the area between the 2 names instead of touching directly on the name.
 


Klaas

I've changed this
Nov 1, 2017
2,648






Seagull58

In the Algarve
Jan 31, 2012
8,412
Vilamoura, Portugal
Am I the only one who is confident Harris wins and by a significant margin?
I'm confident that Harris will win with over 300 electoral college votes if proceedings are conducted fairly. I'm concerned about Trump and Speaker Johnson combining to try and invalidate some states' declarations though, and even more worried that the corrupt christofascists on the Supreme Court will go along with it. If that does happen then I can see Biden declaring martial law.
Obviously, I hope none of that happens.
 




Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,662
I don’t know how people on this thread are calling the result with so much confidence when every US and global political pundits are saying it’s too close to call 😎. Personally, I think it’s really (albeit educated) guess work and some wishful thinking thrown in based on politically biased stories doing the rounds on X and Fb, skewed betting odds and unreliable polling - I think I will stick to what I don’t know and that is who will win this election 🙂

- this is definitely good news though and will be a relief to the Dems in Penn
It’s an ongoing issue in Pennsylvania and it hasn’t gone ‘straight to the court’ in the sense of missing out lower courts, it was raised again by the Appellate Court on Wednesday and the Supreme Court of Penn already ruled in 2022 that voters can make a provisional vote on election day then mail back their amended ballot.

Trump lawyers have gone ‘straight’ to the Court in the sense of getting a declaration on the decision made in 2022 as soon as the incorrectly completed ballots came to light.


Supreme Court denies GOP request to block counting of certain provisional ballots in battleground Pennsylvania​

The Supreme Court on Friday night left in place a ruling made by Pennsylvania’s highest court in 2022 that requires election boards in the state to count provisional ballots submitted by voters whose mail-in ballots had been deemed invalid.

The order from the justices means that election officials in the key battleground state must tally provisional ballots submitted on Election Day by voters who returned defective mail ballots, either because they didn't include secrecy envelopes or failed to sign or date the outer envelope.
 










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