[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

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Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

  • President Joe Biden - Democrat

    Votes: 3 0.7%

  • Donald Trump - Republican

    Votes: 173 41.9%

  • Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

    Votes: 217 52.5%

  • Other Democratic candidate tbc

    Votes: 20 4.8%
  • Total voters
    413
  • This poll will close: .


nwgull

nwgull

Well-known member
Jul 25, 2003
14,533
Manchester
US Seagull said:
Tony's a big boy. He can make his own decisions.
Click to expand...
Tony Bloom has made a significant chunk of his millions making bets where he’s calculated the odds to be in favour of the punter. This is what people seem to be saying is the case with Harris here.

For what it's worth, I put £20 on Harris when Biden first stepped down at a similar price to now. Notwithstanding the fact that I'd win a few quid, I would like nothing more than to see Trump defeated again. However, if people aren’t prepared to back their assertions that Harris is way overpriced in the betting markets, then it doesn’t give me much confidence that they genuinely believe she actually is.
 




nwgull

nwgull

Well-known member
Jul 25, 2003
14,533
Manchester
This is more like it - assuming you’re not loaded and £50 is what you might light a cigar with!
 


















G

Greg Bobkin

Silver Seagull
May 22, 2012
16,033
Triggaaar said:
I thought they won in 2020? So difficult to keep up
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Yep. Trump is actuality president now and Biden is an AI bot who is being controlled by the fake news-hating, woke-defying anti deep state metropolitan elite patriots. Hence why he appears to glitch now and again.

The Greatest President Of All Time Is actually gearing up for his THIRD term. Unprecedented :thumbsup:
 




G

Greg Bobkin

Silver Seagull
May 22, 2012
16,033
nwgull said:
Tony Bloom has made a significant chunk of his millions making bets where he’s calculated the odds to be in favour of the punter. This is what people seem to be saying is the case with Harris here.

For what it's worth, I put £20 on Harris when Biden first stepped down at a similar price to now. Notwithstanding the fact that I'd win a few quid, I would like nothing more than to see Trump defeated again. However, if people aren’t prepared to back their assertions that Harris is way overpriced in the betting markets, then it doesn’t give me much confidence that they genuinely believe she actually is.
Click to expand...
Just because you think something doesn't mean you have to bet on it! I'm pretty sure it's going to rain at some point between now and Christmas, but I'm not about to open an account with BetMonkey and hand over a load of cash to it :lolol:
 




US Seagull

US Seagull

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
4,661
Cleveland, OH
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US Seagull

US Seagull

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
4,661
Cleveland, OH
nwgull said:
Tony Bloom has made a significant chunk of his millions making bets where he’s calculated the odds to be in favour of the punter. This is what people seem to be saying is the case with Harris here.

For what it's worth, I put £20 on Harris when Biden first stepped down at a similar price to now. Notwithstanding the fact that I'd win a few quid, I would like nothing more than to see Trump defeated again. However, if people aren’t prepared to back their assertions that Harris is way overpriced in the betting markets, then it doesn’t give me much confidence that they genuinely believe she actually is.
Click to expand...
Good for him, good for you.

I don't gamble. Period.

I'm not telling anybody else what to do or not do, that's just you doing that.
 


Zeberdi

Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,942
This is a good (and short article) - explains why there might be discrepancies between betting and polling.

Financial markets use two types of data to predict outcome - fundamentals and technicals - data analysts predicting presidential campaigns use the same data categories:

“The fundamentals encapsulate the type of campaign, from radical to centrist, that the candidates run, the economic circumstances at election time, information on the dueling ground games, and how the contestants impress voters on charisma and credibility. The technicals divide into two categories: the polls, and the political prediction or betting markets …. But in the 2024 race for the White House, the fundamentals and technicals are thoroughly out of whack.“

“We’ve never seen a disconnect like this in any modern presidential election, or maybe any presidential race ever,” says one data scientist.

fortune.com

The 'fundamentals' say Harris should win, but the 'technicals' show a big lead for Trump say two leading election watchers

In presidential elections, fundamental and technical analysis are also the two leading methods for handicapping the outcome.
fortune.com fortune.com

On that basis, the polling could be way out or the betting!
 


Triggaaar

Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,135
Goldstone
Springal said:


Seems mad they just have ballot boxes sitting on the side of streets
Click to expand...


Trump wants to claim his elections get stolen, but the person burning ballots is a, drum role, you're just not going to believe this - a Republican! I mean who could have guessed?

The obvious question though, is how do they deal with the missing votes?
 


Withdean South Stand

Withdean South Stand

Well-known member
Mar 2, 2014
646
Triggaaar said:
Trump wants to claim his elections get stolen, but the person burning ballots is a, drum role, you're just not going to believe this - a Republican! I mean who could have guessed?

The obvious question though, is how do they deal with the missing votes?
Click to expand...
Presumably anyone who posted their vote in that dropbox will be able to report that they had submitted their vote, and they'll get a new ballot and have to fill it out again. Then when it's submitted and counted, it will only be counted once and will stand up to any and all recounts which will be demanded by one side. But it does depend, presumably, on the voters who used that dropbox notifying the authorities and getting a replacement in good time.
 




B

Bodian

Well-known member
May 3, 2012
14,250
Cumbria
Springal said:


Seems mad they just have ballot boxes sitting on the side of streets
Click to expand...


US Seagull said:
They also caught some of that rampant voter fraud!

www.startribune.com

Northern Minnesota woman charged with voter fraud in forgery of dead mom’s name

Danielle Christine Miller of Nashwauk told a deputy that her mother was an avid supporter of presidential candidate Donald Trump.
www.startribune.com www.startribune.com
Click to expand...
Hang on, am I missing something? The only people so far caught trying to rig ballots are Republicans?? That can't be right.

I seem to recall that the only people charged with electoral fraud back in 2020 after all the hoo-hah were Republican fake electors. Is there some sort of pattern here...?
 


Triggaaar

Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,135
Goldstone
Withdean South Stand said:
Presumably anyone who posted their vote in that dropbox will be able to report that they had submitted their vote, and they'll get a new ballot and have to fill it out again. Then when it's submitted and counted, it will only be counted once and will stand up to any and all recounts which will be demanded by one side. But it does depend, presumably, on the voters who used that dropbox notifying the authorities and getting a replacement in good time.
Click to expand...

And what if some said they used that box, but they didn't, so they get to vote twice? Will that be easy for authorities to check?
 
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