[Politics] Brexit

[WATFORD zero]

source is suspect, and open to it being untrue, but no hint of denial from Merkel or other sources.

Source is suspect ? F*** me, you do love an understatement. I can't think of a less 'suspect source' in the world today

No matter how much you are desperate for this to be true, it isn't.

No denial from Merkel ? You do know that diplomatic standards dictate that private conversations between leaders aren't commented on

it is undeniable that if it weren't for NI the process would have gone a lot smoother.

I love your edit. It is absolutely undeniable that if Northern Ireland didn't exist, the process could have been simpler

 

[Thunder Bolt]

A group of five ministers — Nicky Morgan, Julian Smith, Robert Buckland, Matt Hancock and Geoffrey Cox — are on a “resignation watch list”.

It came after a “fractious” cabinet meeting in which ministers warned Mr Johnson about the “grave” risk of the return of direct rule in Northern Ireland and raised concerns about Dominic Cummings, his most senior adviser.

One cabinet minister told The Times: “Cabinet will set the strategy, not unelected officials. If this is an attempt to do that then it will fail. We are not a cabinet of sock puppets and nodding dogs.”

Another cabinet minister said that a “very large number” of Tory MPs would quit if Mr Johnson put a no-deal Brexit at the core of his general election strategy. They said they would find it “very hard” to stay in a government that committed itself to a no-deal Brexit.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...-quit-if-it-comes-to-no-deal-brexit-z5g358v5r

Surely they realised how much influence Cummings has over Johnson? I can't believe that the Tories are so naive. They are imploding.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I can understand your frustration at the seemingly never ending process, but leaving with a 'deal' will optimistically take us at least another 5 years of Brexit being top of the News and Parliament agenda and effecting the economy, while the biggest trade deal in Britain's history is negotiated. (Look how long the easy bit of trying to negotiate a withdrawal agreement has taken so far).

A 'No deal', even by JRM's admittance could keep Brexit at the top of the agenda for the next 50 years.

Make no mistake, no type of Brexit is going to 'put the patient out of it's misery'.

There is only one way to bring this to a conclusion.

Exactly. Hard Brexit appeals to a certain mindset - suspicious of the EU, impatient, susceptible to confirmation bias.....

The reality is that we, like any other nation, must have legal arrangements with all other nations for trade and travel, and making these arrangements will take as long as it will take. Arbitrarily binning all current arrangements in a few weeks is completely stupid. It is petulant and childish. It is akin to a nine year old refusing to go to school and instead jumping on the nearest bus with no idea where it is heading.

However....my impression is Cummings knows what he's doing.

1. Boris has pledged we will leave at the end of October, which satisfies everyone from rabid Brexitters to generally sensible folk like the chap to whom [MENTION=396]WATFORD zero[/MENTION] was replying.

2. Having got widespread support for this (in my view) madness, the rest is all about ensuring it happens.

3. It is also about dumping blame for anything bad that may happen on others.

4. So we are forced into no deal because of failure of the EU to give us a good deal (a lie, but this is widely believed).

5. Actually, I am stuck now. Boris is saying he will obey the law but won't ask for an extension. These are incompatible. So...

5a. He could 'ask' for an extension in such a way the EU would say 'no', but everyone would see through that. I really don't think the EU will say no, though, no matter how badly he asks, unless the EU plan to punish us with a hard Brexit and instant visa requirements and import-export torpor. That would cause carnage in the UK and there would then be a vote of no confidence and an election.....which Boris may win, but it would be risky...in his favour there would be no Brexit party as Brexit would be done. Is this Cumming's mad plan? Chaos, or . .

5b the EU do give us an extension despite Boris' request arriving on the back of a fag packet in biro, in which case there will be a vote of no confidence and general election which Boris would lose because the Brexit party would steal votes from the tories.


Chaos it is, then. FFS.

 

[Goliath]

The EU will only approve a very soft Brexit.Its obvious the only way to sort this is with No Deal.An extension for what?We've done nothing in over 3 years so an extension is pointless.The EU just want to keep locking us in,in the hope Remoaners will find a way to stop us haveing any kind of Brexit.

As a Leaver I am constantly told by Remoaners that I did not vote for a No Deal.Actually I also did not vote for a deal.

Another referendum?Really?So if Leave win again we have to go through all of this again?Lol.

 

[portslade seagull]

Source is suspect ? F*** me, you do love an understatement. I can't think of a less 'suspect source' in the world today

No matter how much you are desperate for this to be true, it isn't.

No denial from Merkel ? You do know that diplomatic standards dictate that private conversations between leaders aren't commented on



I love your edit. It is absolutely undeniable that if Northern Ireland didn't exist, the process could have been simpler

So all the leaks from the EU and insider remainers when May was trying to negotiate but being undermined at every opportunity were true in your eyes but this Merkel one isn't because it doesn't fit your agenda. Were you party to this call do you know more than anybody else ?

 

[ManOfSussex]

Why do you keep changing the rules to suit your logic. 52% won it. Even if it was 60 to 40 you would still be spouting it should have been set at 75% by Cameron to carry the vote. It seems remainers are returning to pre 2016 scare stories which lost a lot of votes in the 1st place. Put voters backs up and they will react.
Remain would have won comfortably in 2016 without all the crap they pumped out

The Remain campaign was poor, but Leave won because they pulled 3 million non-voters out to vote.

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

It’s a negotiation. If one side refuses to or an agreement cannot be reached then it’s a no deal. That might be worse. For both parties. We shall see. It’s pure brinkmanship.

And it is brinkmanship that is playing with the lives, the hopes and the fears of 60 million plus people..... whichever way they voted.

 

[WATFORD zero]

So all the leaks from the EU and insider remainers when May was trying to negotiate but being undermined at every opportunity were true in your eyes but this Merkel one isn't because it doesn't fit your agenda. Were you party to this call do you know more than anybody else ?

I was talking about this 'leak' of the Merkel phone call. I don't believe Dominic Cummings about this leak, just like I didn't believe his slogan on the bus or his idea that there is a magical 'good deal' for Britain

If you want to believe these things, fill er boots. It's just that, given the background of the man, I don't

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Exactly. Hard Brexit appeals to a certain mindset - suspicious of the EU, impatient, susceptible to confirmation bias.....

The reality is that we, like any other nation, must have legal arrangements with all other nations for trade and travel, and making these arrangements will take as long as it will take. Arbitrarily binning all current arrangements in a few weeks is completely stupid. It is petulant and childish. It is akin to a nine year old refusing to go to school and instead jumping on the nearest bus with no idea where it is heading.

However....my impression is Cummings knows what he's doing.

1. Boris has pledged we will leave at the end of October, which satisfies everyone from rabid Brexitters to generally sensible folk like the chap to whom [MENTION=396]WATFORD zero[/MENTION] was replying.

2. Having got widespread support for this (in my view) madness, the rest is all about ensuring it happens.

3. It is also about dumping blame for anything bad that may happen on others.

4. So we are forced into no deal because of failure of the EU to give us a good deal (a lie, but this is widely believed).

5. Actually, I am stuck now. Boris is saying he will obey the law but won't ask for an extension. These are incompatible. So...

5a. He could 'ask' for an extension in such a way the EU would say 'no', but everyone would see through that. I really don't think the EU will say no, though, no matter how badly he asks, unless the EU plan to punish us with a hard Brexit and instant visa requirements and import-export torpor. That would cause carnage in the UK and there would then be a vote of no confidence and an election.....which Boris may win, but it would be risky...in his favour there would be no Brexit party as Brexit would be done. Is this Cumming's mad plan? Chaos, or . .

5b the EU do give us an extension despite Boris' request arriving on the back of a fag packet in biro, in which case there will be a vote of no confidence and general election which Boris would lose because the Brexit party would steal votes from the tories.


Chaos it is, then. FFS.

But better than *Chaos with Ed Miliband* ?

 

[A1X]

Why oh why couldn't we just leave but stay in a EFTA-like arrangement, in line with the vote and probably public opinion? If anyone gave a tuppenny f*ck about national unity, that is what they would ALL be advocating.

Because the headbangers refuse to countenance it. It's "BRINO", which apparently is a fate worse than death.

 

[midnight_rendezvous]

Why do you keep changing the rules to suit your logic. 52% won it. Even if it was 60 to 40 you would still be spouting it should have been set at 75% by Cameron to carry the vote. It seems remainers are returning to pre 2016 scare stories which lost a lot of votes in the 1st place. Put voters backs up and they will react.
Remain would have won comfortably in 2016 without all the crap they pumped out

You can’t seriously sit there and attempt to take the moral high ground about scare stories when the Leave campaign were just as guilty at trying to scare voters. Claims of vast swaths of Turkish immigrants flocking to the UK rings a bell...

 

[portslade seagull]

I was talking about this 'leak' of the Merkel phone call. I don't believe Dominic Cummings about this leak, just like I didn't believe his slogan on the bus or his idea that there is a magical 'good deal' for Britain

If you want to believe these things, fill er boots. It's just that I don't

The Sabres are rattling on all sides and it would seem a No Deal is favourite. I hold all parties responsible the SNP because of their agenda to push another independence vote throughout the last 3yrs, Labour don't really know what they want firstly out then in then out and now back in now wonder they are losing votes and are now 15pts behind in the polls. Lib Dems pushing any agenda to gain votes how easily forgotten that they helped introduce uni fees well actually pushed for them when in alliance with Blair. The Conservatives for being to conceited and May shooting herself in the foot by calling the election. If only they all got together to make the best of what was needed instead of turning it into the farce that now exists.

 

[WATFORD zero]

The Sabres are rattling on all sides and it would seem a No Deal is favourite. I hold all parties responsible the SNP because of their agenda to push another independence vote throughout the last 3yrs, Labour don't really know what they want firstly out then in then out and now back in now wonder they are losing votes and are now 15pts behind in the polls. Lib Dems pushing any agenda to gain votes how easily forgotten that they helped introduce uni fees well actually pushed for them when in alliance with Blair. The Conservatives for being to conceited and May shooting herself in the foot by calling the election. If only they all got together to make the best of what was needed instead of turning it into the farce that now exists.

Nice Rant, trying to blame everyone other than the people who voted for this complete clusterf***

But what has this got to do with believing Cummings

Off out in the sunshine now so enjoy yourselves, and play nicely

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Because the headbangers refuse to countenance it. It's "BRINO", which apparently is a fate worse than death.

Except it is impossible to be in both the EU and EFTA - not allowed, against the rules - so EFTA membership de facto means leaving the EU ( and fulfilling the referendum mandate ).

 

[Seaber]

Of course Bojo the Clown is no master strategist, but Cummings is.

They’ll write the letter as the law dictates but it’s still a long way to go before the extension is granted. There are lots of things that they can try and do to override the letter.

Let’s hope this group of nasty Torys are kicked out of government long before they get a chance to destroy our economy.

They can't legally do anything to over ride the letter. The formal promises made to the Scottish court the other day have completely reinforced this, there can be no doubt that Johnson and his legal team know exactly what they can't do. They are now boxed in to sending the letter.

There is no possibility of sending a follow up letter, email or phone call to say the content of the first letter should be ignored. Johnson, or someone working on his behalf, cannot privately ask a member state to veto the extension. All of these options are illegal and he cannot plead ignorance (not that that's a defence anyway).

There is no time for an early election to take the sending of the letter out of his hands, a VONC won't come until after the deadline to send the letter, he has no time to call a VONC in himself.

It's hard to know what's true coming out of Downing Street these days, but last night it was reported Johnson was planning on using the Lascelles Principles to ignore the Queen sacking him if he lost a vote of no confidence. The Lascelles Principles are null and void as of 2011, but if what was reported is true it shows Johnson is desperate for a way out which he does not have.

 

[Seaber]

The Sabres are rattling on all sides and it would seem a No Deal is favourite. I hold all parties responsible the SNP because of their agenda to push another independence vote throughout the last 3yrs, Labour don't really know what they want firstly out then in then out and now back in now wonder they are losing votes and are now 15pts behind in the polls. Lib Dems pushing any agenda to gain votes how easily forgotten that they helped introduce uni fees well actually pushed for them when in alliance with Blair. The Conservatives for being to conceited and May shooting herself in the foot by calling the election. If only they all got together to make the best of what was needed instead of turning it into the farce that now exists.

Don't let off Plaid and the Greens!

 

[beorhthelm]

Source is suspect ? F*** me, you do love an understatement. I can't think of a less 'suspect source' in the world today

No matter how much you are desperate for this to be true, it isn't.

No denial from Merkel ? You do know that diplomatic standards dictate that private conversations between leaders aren't commented on

why would i want it to be true, screws up sensible negotiation if it is. there are no comments and no comments, i'd expect a "dont recognise" type of comment, or counter leaks of the conversation.

 

[portslade seagull]

You can’t seriously sit there and attempt to take the moral high ground about scare stories when the Leave campaign were just as guilty at trying to scare voters. Claims of vast swaths of Turkish immigrants flocking to the UK rings a bell...

There were far more from remain which had far more resource to make them up. It worked against them

 

[midnight_rendezvous]

The Sabres are rattling on all sides and it would seem a No Deal is favourite. I hold all parties responsible the SNP because of their agenda to push another independence vote throughout the last 3yrs, Labour don't really know what they want firstly out then in then out and now back in now wonder they are losing votes and are now 15pts behind in the polls. Lib Dems pushing any agenda to gain votes how easily forgotten that they helped introduce uni fees well actually pushed for them when in alliance with Blair. The Conservatives for being to conceited and May shooting herself in the foot by calling the election. If only they all got together to make the best of what was needed instead of turning it into the farce that now exists.

How on earth do you figure No Deal is the favoute? The majority of the public have consistently voted for parties who rule out a no deal Brexit. And, re polls, more people turned up to watch Corbyn speak in Newcastle than have ever taken part in a YouGov poll. Labour are very clear on what they want. It just can’t be put into a three word sound bite so political commentators deliberately make out that it’s confusing and unclear.

 

[A1X]

Except it is impossible to be in both the EU and EFTA - not allowed, against the rules - so EFTA membership de facto means leaving the EU ( and fulfilling the referendum mandate ).

I know that, you know that, the headbangers know that. But it doesn't stop them whinging about it.