[Politics] Brexit

[Seaber]

I'll tell myself that Corbyn appeals to a hardcore 20% and nobody else. That's why even though the Tories are absolutely terrible, they are still 15 points behind in the polls.

The same polls that told us Remain would win, that Trump would lose and that, during May’s snap election, the Tories would win by a landslide? Ok then have fun with that.

I think the thing with the polls it they will probably look very different after the 31st, or if Johnson is removed as PM.

 

[nwgull]

Really?

In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £289 billion (46% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £345 billion (54% of all UK imports). The share of UK exports accounted for by the EU has generally fallen over time from 55% in 2006 to 43% in 2016, though this increased slightly to 44% in 2017 and 46% in 2018.24 Jul 2019
Statistics on UK-EU trade - Commons Library briefing - UK ...
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk › Summary › CBP-7851

My answer was in response to the contributions to membership. I compared the trade figures to demonstrate that the loss of net 8 billion is fairly insignificant in relation to the overall turnover of EU countries.

 

[Lever]

Quick reminder that, actually, you did.

http://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.ne...inal/1463496002/Why_Vote_Leave.pdf?1463496002

Point 4 on page 11.

You make a good point; but revisionist Leave voters will not accept an inconvenient truth like that.

 

[nwgull]

1) The UK's temporary tariff regime means that 88% of total imports to the UK, by value, will be eligible for tariff free access.

2) British businesses will not pay tariffs on imports into the UK, for the majority of goods, if we leave without an agreement.

3) An exceptional review process will come into force on exit day, to make changes to the temporary tariff regime, if necessary.

4) The temporary tariff regime is in force for 12 months, whilst a full consultation on a permanent approach to tariffs is undertaken from January.

The temporary tariff regime is far reaching and needs to be studied. Some products will fall quite a lot in price, others will rise. No one can state categorically that we are ****ed until you are able to analyse all the changes and they won't be clearer until post Brexit, let alone the changes to UK taxation legislation, which will take a time to be established.

It’s the tariffs imposed on exported goods that will ruin British business. Tariff free imports to U.K. makes no deal even more palatable to the EU.

 

[midnight_rendezvous]

Are we just going to ignore the fact that polls normally get it right, just because they haven't done so twice? And should we also ignore the fact that historically polls always underestimate the Tory vote, not Labour?

Erm... in the last GE polls had the Tories winning by a landslide yet Corbyn generated the biggest influx of Labour support since WW2 and wiped out the Tory Majority, so you’ll forgive me if I’m sceptical.

 

[Baldseagull]

i wonder, if the result of 2nd ref were 52/48 in favour to remain, does that mean 48% are marginalised and is that OK?

No, it means that we stay in the EU and press for reforms where needed, and educate the public about the EU, that should ensure the 48% are no longer shitting themselves about being conscripted into an EU Army, being forced to join the Euro, or having all their neighbours become Turkish.

 

[Simster]

Erm... in the last GE polls had the Tories winning by a landslide yet Corbyn generated the biggest influx of Labour support since WW2 and wiped out the Tory Majority, so you’ll forgive me if I’m sceptical.

No they didn't:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#2017


One even had Labour winning.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I don’t need to argue the point with you, if you choose to believe I am an outright liar, your prerogative.

I spend time in France and Spain and have seen the difference that EU money has made, I haven’t seen the same in the UK. I have no idea why commenting on this makes you keep doubting my being a remainer. I have not heard a single current politician who has made me think “yep this is the man or woman who can sort out this cluster****”. Hence I think we should put the patient out of it’s misery rather than have this dominate politics for the foreseeable future. Get out, have an election and let’s see where we go.

The above may be naive in the extreme, stupid even but it’s how I feel

I think the reason you haven't seen the same in the UK is because our governments haven't allowed it to be known. There is a link (I can't find it just as this moment) called MyEU or similar, where you can put your postcode in, and see the many projects the EU money has paid for. The press has never bothered publicising them.
In contrast, the floods in 2015, which caused so much damage, especially in Somerset, could have been helped by EU money but Cameron turned it down, because it would affect the result of the referendum the following year. He wanted it kept quiet.

This is the link. Put in any postcode to see what EU money has financed in what area.

https://www.myeu.uk

I typed in Brighton rather than a postcode. Each blue shape gives the exact amount and detail of EU money and what it has financed.
https://www.myeu.uk/search?Brighton, UK

 

[nwgull]

The same polls that told us Remain would win, that Trump would lose and that, during May’s snap election, the Tories would win by a landslide? Ok then have fun with that.

You’re wrong:

Polls in the month prior to EU ref predicted a mixture of leave and remain.

Polls for US predicted Clinton would get more votes that Trump, which she did - 4.5% more.

Polls showed a landslide when May called the election; that’s why she called it. However, in the weeks up to voting day they correctly showed the lead being eroded. The pre election polls predicted a slim majority at best.

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

Has ever been thus, we live a tumble dryer of a world with no say over the spin cycle. Except we know it’s just going to get hotter and hotter!

I like your analogy and agree. I just couldn't help thinking that, if from June 2016 things had been done differently after the vote, it could have been very different. Johnson is screwing it up right royally as far as I am concerned, but to be fair he was left an impossible situation to sort out!

And it goes against the grain to be fair to our PM!

 

[midnight_rendezvous]

No they didn't:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#2017


One even had Labour winning.

Yes they did. Which is why May called the snap election in the first place. Classic example of opinion polls attempting to shape public opinion rather than reflecting it.

 

[pb21]

Are we just going to ignore the fact that polls normally get it right, just because they haven't done so twice? And should we also ignore the fact that historically polls always underestimate the Tory vote, not Labour?

Its worth noting that the betting market currently has 'no overall majority' as favourite.

Also, IMO, there are more shy Labour voters than there are shy Tory voters these days.

 

[midnight_rendezvous]

You’re wrong:

Polls in the month prior to EU ref predicted a mixture of leave and remain.

Polls for US predicted Clinton would get more votes that Trump, which she did - 4.5% more.

Polls showed a landslide when May called the election; that’s why she called it. However, in the weeks up to voting day they correctly showed the lead being eroded. The pre election polls predicted a slim majority at best.

So in other words, polls fluctuate and don’t always correctly represent public opinion. That is precisely the point, perhaps executed poorly on my part, I’m trying to make.

 

[maltaseagull]

Again, that's not really true - or wasn't in the year or two after the vote. The Conservatives would easily have had the numbers to vote if they had opted for a customs union solution, or bothered to bring in a cross party negotiating team. They didn't, they got taken over by extremists and that is why we are where we are.

So, basically you agree. The Tories were not prepared to compromise on customs union or with the rest of the house. QED.

 

[pb21]

No they didn't:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#2017


One even had Labour winning.

Edit: Of course 2017 had Nick Timothy and 2019/2020 will have Cummings whipping up a frenzy...

 

[Goliath]

Remoaners? Isn't it time to grow up?

And with regard to "having to go through all of this again" perhaps you need to reacquaint yourself with Farage's comment that had the result been reversed, he would have been pressing for a second vote. Perhaps you can explain how that principle is ok for one side but not the other?

Sent from my LYA-L09 using Tapatalk

Yes of course Remoaners should grow up and accept democracy.
Farage is just one person.
What's more important is how would a second vote help??It wouldn't.If leave won then Remoaners would continue to moan.If Remoaners won then Leave would rightly ask for a 3rd vote and then this would all drag on for years and years.Perfect.

 

[Baldseagull]

Can someone help me out here please.

BJ and his cronies still keep banging on about "we will leave on Oct 31st no matter what" and still threatening a no-deal Brexit, but I was under the impression that had been completely kiboshed by Benns Law.

So, is the threat of a no-deal Brexit still a real threat, or is it simply more pathetic filibustering from an ever increasingly panicking Boris?

With the unofficial and unnamed briefings coming from Downing Street, it seems to me the idea is to make the EU believe that there is a cunning plan to exploit a loophole in UK law to leave without a deal, it is false, but they have to try and make it seem real, as the belief is the EU will cave in if they think the alternative is no deal. It isn't, even if there were a way to make it happen, it would not last, Parliament would kick Johnson out and seek to get Mays Withdrawal arrangements applied PDQ. It's Mays deal or something very similar, or remain.

 

[Baldseagull]

Sadly, longtime Brexiter Yalland gets it right in his thread about the mutation of Brexit.

https://twitter.com/AdrianYalland/status/1181711773415755777?s=19


Everyone can benefit from reading his thread. Renainers to catch a glimpse of the Brexit positives, Leavers to see how Brexit has now been corrupted into the ugly mess it never should have been.

I can agree with most of that except the equivalence of both remaining and leaving in terms of not being the status quo. It was in law that any treaty changes required a referendum on the changes in the UK, and that we were not obliged to move towards any further integration. There is no preserving the exact status quo in anything, but we had a pretty good handle on how that might change and if we wanted it to by staying in.

 

[A1X]

You make a good point; but revisionist Leave voters will not accept an inconvenient truth like that.

I'm not saying I have to make this point a lot to them but I have the link bookmarked.

 

[Goliath]

Regardless of if we do get Brexit,none of this will be over.Remoaners will look for a way to get us back in and the EU will make it easy.If Labour win a future election on the back of taking us back in then thats an obvious route but whatever happens I dont believe for one minute when we leave,if we leave that will be the end.