Trump

[stewart12]

the polls are showing quite wide gaps though arent they? remember Trump lost the popular vote against Hilary that people actively disliked, even on own side. thats reversed now, people dislike Trump.

this. People are using 2016 as a reason not to "trust" polls. But more people voted for Clinton than for Trump so in that sense a lot of the polls were probably spot on. Trump played the game better that's for sure and used the distrust of Clinton in certain areas of the country against her

Of course, as a minority president, the most sensible thing would be to spend 4 years building bridges with those that didn't vote for him- that's what, you know, an adult would do

Trump has, of course, done the complete opposite

 

[Silverhatch]

Clinton was hugely divisive amongst the Democrats/Americans generally. Trump benefitted hugely from Anything But Clinton voters on all sides. This time the Anything But Trump vote is mobilised and there will be many moderate republicans who will yearn for a bit of old-fashioned business as usual Government in the West Wing. One thing’s for sure - the DT rhetoric will get (even more) mad and inflammatory In the next few days.

 

[Mellotron]

this. People are using 2016 as a reason not to "trust" polls. But more people voted for Clinton than for Trump so in that sense a lot of the polls were probably spot on. Trump played the game better that's for sure and used the distrust of Clinton in certain areas of the country against her

Of course, as a minority president, the most sensible thing would be to spend 4 years building bridges with those that didn't vote for him- that's what, you know, an adult would do

Trump has, of course, done the complete opposite

This. The polls that got the popular vote pretty much spot on in 2016 (like 538) are showing healthy leads for Biden.

A lot of pollsters are saying they have also adjusted their polling to account for a higher turn out of white uneducated voters, traditionally a group who do not vote as much, but came out en masse for Trump.

 

[schmunk]

Polling is pointless when it comes to Trump, lots won’t admit voting for him because of the reaction.

I believe they call this the "shy ****" effect.

 

[Tom Bombadil]

The poll thing is massively overstated. Nationally in 2016 the polls were within the margin of error. It was state polling where the biggest problems were particularly in the midwest rustbelt where undecided's broke decisively for Trump in the last couple if weeks. This time round though there are much fewer undecided voters ( either way who hasn't made their mind up about trump by now) and all the polling companies have made changes to their models to account for where they thought they'd underrepresented particular voter groups last time. It's possible that some pollsters are stil misiing Trump voters, but it's equally likely that they've overcompensated this time around and Biden is very comfortably ahead.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

You don't see this as a manipulation of what he said?

In terms of being President, he was saying that people would be even more generous (in their corrupt giving) to a President.

It's still is what it is, and isn't what it isn't. It - is - him saying that Biden is corrupt, he could have chosen to act corruptly too, he'd probably be able to make more money doing it than Biden does, he gave an example of a corrupt act, and said he doesn't and won't do that because it's corruption.

It's been presented as, well infact I'll just paste the video description from the Independent's video.

You can't tell me you think that this is an honest reflection of what Trump was saying, even though he is incredibly clumsy and disjointed in how he speaks.

Independent YT description:
"Donald Trump told supporters that he could theoretically fundraise by calling on the head of energy company ExxonMobil; he suggested trading government permits for campaign donations.

Federal law prohibits such quid pro quos.

The president also claimed he could raise $1bn a day if he "wanted to" when speaking at a rally in Prescott, Arizona."

I'm not even really trying to defend Trump here, I just find the actions of the media to be incredible. People will watch that video as it's presented (it will no doubt be reported on similarly across the press and media) and form a completely warped opinion of what happened. You only have to look at the comments on YT (or on here) to see how it was taken.

I'd expect this behavior from a political PAC or a very dishonest opponent's spin operation. But not from the press. It's shameful. It's ordinary people who are being manipulated by this stuff. People probably wouldn't like Trump anyway, but the behavior of the press is unreal. It's not journalism, it's activism. Trump will go eventually, but we are going to have a press who are willing to manipulate and misrepresent long after that happens, and that is a problem.

Yeah, OK, you believe he's been manipulated. But the 'press', as you blanket them, just report what he said. And that is WHAT HE SAID. Regardless of the context, HE STILL SAID THOSE WORDS – and the situation they describe is what played out. They are quoting (even using the quote marks) him verbatim, which is their job – to report what was says.

He didn't have to go down that route with his speech – he could've steered well clear of it, but he didn't. Because he's a troll. How would you like it to be described? 'Donald Trump accused Joe Biden of corruption and then – in an apparently hypothetical situation – joked that he would get far more money from bribing people than his opponent'? Do me a favour!

I love this line that people trot out that he was joking, or he didn't mean what he said. He's the PRESIDENT, FFS. You don't want the guy in charge to the pissing about with his words and what he says! He's got SO much previous with this sort of thing. Mocking reporters, opponents, celebrities, sports stars. It's all BS, clearly, but it's what he says.

But hey, blame the press. It's OBVIOUSLY their fault...

 

[Greg Bobkin]

Red wave is coming. You watch fake news you receive fakes news. Going to be a landslide. Been saying it since August.

A whole THREE MONTHS!

Oh well, in that case, all bets are off!

 

[nwgull]

This. The polls that got the popular vote pretty much spot on in 2016 (like 538) are showing healthy leads for Biden.

A lot of pollsters are saying they have also adjusted their polling to account for a higher turn out of white uneducated voters, traditionally a group who do not vote as much, but came out en masse for Trump.

Average of polls in the last week of campaigning gave Clinton a 3.6% lead nationally. She only won the popular vote by 2.1%, so it was slightly out, but certainly within the margin of error.

As you correctly state, pollsters will adjust their methods to correct errors in the percentages of representation of certain demographics - white uneducated in this case. Do people seriously think that polling companies, whose reputations depend on being as accurate as possible, are just going to go with a model that was shown to be incorrect?

 

[A1X]

landslide is coming

FWIW, FiveThirtyEight agree. They modelled the election 1,000 times and found scenarios where Biden wins the electoral college by over 400 votes. No run showed Trump winning by more than 142 votes.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

So there could well be a landslide coming. For Joe Biden.

 

[MJsGhost]

Red wave is coming. You watch fake news you receive fakes news. Going to be a landslide. Been saying it since August.

I've seen bold claims like this somewhere before...

Wait until Spurs roll us over.

This will be the game that will see our fans finally turn in there hordes and say Spence was right all those weeks ago.

Trust me it will happen.

Spurs at home WILL BE THE ONE when the boos will fill the Amex.

 

[highflyer]

Average of polls in the last week of campaigning gave Clinton a 3.6% lead nationally. She only won the popular vote by 2.1%, so it was slightly out, but certainly within the margin of error.

As you correctly state, pollsters will adjust their methods to correct errors in the percentages of representation of certain demographics - white uneducated in this case. Do people seriously think that polling companies, whose reputations depend on being as accurate as possible, are just going to go with a model that was shown to be incorrect?

Pollsters will be trying to correct for previous errors, but the problem they have is that everything is changing, all the time. The things people care about, the attitudes to the candidates, questions of who turns out and why...all different, all in constant flux. So the cause of errors this time are likely to be different from last time and it's going to be hard to adjust for errors when you can't pin down what the cause of those errors will be. Must be a nightmare.

Generally speaking national level polls will be far more accurate than state level. The error nationally in 2016 was within margin of error, but errors were far bigger in a number of key states. And thus the possibility of a narrow Trump victory is still very real. The gap at national level is bigger, and more stable, but also I suspect volatility at state level is even greater than in 2016. Two weeks to go and it could be anything from a narrow Trump win...to Biden landslide...to civil war.

 

[dingodan]

It's all BS, clearly. Blame the press.

I agree.

 

[LlcoolJ]

So, he hates watching the best football Brighton has ever played, by the best team we've ever had, and democracy. There's nowt so queer as folk.

Yes. And he loves Boris Johnson.

I think the term is "an absolute MELT".*

*Copyright D. Dyer

 

[LlcoolJ]

I've seen bold claims like this somewhere before...

​

Back of the net.

 

[dingodan]

Yeah, OK, you believe he's been manipulated. But the 'press', as you blanket them, just report what he said. And that is WHAT HE SAID. Regardless of the context, HE STILL SAID THOSE WORDS – and the situation they describe is what played out. They are quoting (even using the quote marks) him verbatim, which is their job – to report what was says.

He didn't have to go down that route with his speech – he could've steered well clear of it, but he didn't. Because he's a troll. How would you like it to be described? 'Donald Trump accused Joe Biden of corruption and then – in an apparently hypothetical situation – joked that he would get far more money from bribing people than his opponent'? Do me a favour!

I love this line that people trot out that he was joking, or he didn't mean what he said. He's the PRESIDENT, FFS. You don't want the guy in charge to the pissing about with his words and what he says! He's got SO much previous with this sort of thing. Mocking reporters, opponents, celebrities, sports stars. It's all BS, clearly, but it's what he says.

But hey, blame the press. It's OBVIOUSLY their fault...

In a seriousness though. come on.

Like you say, you believe he has form for "this sort of thing." Isn't that part of the reason you oppose him? Isn't this the kind of behavior you would condemn, if it was Trump who did it? But when it's done to him by the media, it's totally fine?

If it's totally fine, you should have no problem with Trump. If it's wrong, then it should be wrong whoever is doing it.

"The power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them... To tell deliberate lies while genuinely believing in them, to forget any fact that has become inconvenient, and then, when it becomes necessary again, to draw it back from oblivion for just as long as it is needed, to deny the existence of objective reality and all the while to take account of the reality which one denies—all this is indispensably necessary. Even in using the word doublethink it is necessary to exercise doublethink. For by using the word one admits that one is tampering with reality; by a fresh act of doublethink one erases this knowledge; and so on indefinitely, with the lie always one leap ahead of the truth."
- George Orwell, 1984

 

[Greg Bobkin]

In a seriousness though. come on.

Like you say, you believe he has form for "this sort of thing." Isn't that part of the reason you oppose him? Isn't this the kind of behavior you would condemn, if it was Trump who did it? But when it's done to him by the media, it's totally fine?

If it's totally fine, you should have no problem with Trump. If it's wrong, then it should be wrong whoever is doing it.

"The power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them... To tell deliberate lies while genuinely believing in them, to forget any fact that has become inconvenient, and then, when it becomes necessary again, to draw it back from oblivion for just as long as it is needed, to deny the existence of objective reality and all the while to take account of the reality which one denies—all this is indispensably necessary. Even in using the word doublethink it is necessary to exercise doublethink. For by using the word one admits that one is tampering with reality; by a fresh act of doublethink one erases this knowledge; and so on indefinitely, with the lie always one leap ahead of the truth."
- George Orwell, 1984

Your way with words is about as good as Trumpo. I have no idea what you're on about.

 

[Dick Swiveller]

Your way with words is about as good as Trumpo. I have no idea what you're on about.

Haven't you got it yet? That is what they do. Blather for hours, sprinkle in a few videos of black people saying what they believe in (so it must be true) and mix liberally with words like woke, sheeple, lefties etc. Rinse and repeat.

 

[dingodan]

Your way with words is about as good as Trumpo. I have no idea what you're on about.

"To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them, to use logic against logic, to repudiate morality while laying claim to it, to believe that democracy was impossible and that the Party was the guardian of democracy, to forget whatever it was necessary to forget, then to draw it back into memory again at the moment when it was needed, and then promptly to forget it again: and above all, to apply the same process to the process itself -- that was the ultimate subtlety: consciously to induce unconsciousness, and then, once again, to become unconscious of the act of hypnosis you had just performed. Even to understand the word 'doublethink' involved the use of doublethink."
- George Orwell, 1984

 

[LlcoolJ]

In a seriousness though. come on.

Like you say, you believe he has form for "this sort of thing." Isn't that part of the reason you oppose him? Isn't this the kind of behavior you would condemn, if it was Trump who did it? But when it's done to him by the media, it's totally fine?

If it's totally fine, you should have no problem with Trump. If it's wrong, then it should be wrong whoever is doing it.

"The power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them... To tell deliberate lies while genuinely believing in them, to forget any fact that has become inconvenient, and then, when it becomes necessary again, to draw it back from oblivion for just as long as it is needed, to deny the existence of objective reality and all the while to take account of the reality which one denies—all this is indispensably necessary. Even in using the word doublethink it is necessary to exercise doublethink. For by using the word one admits that one is tampering with reality; by a fresh act of doublethink one erases this knowledge; and so on indefinitely, with the lie always one leap ahead of the truth."
- George Orwell, 1984

You really do spout a load of absolute balls a lot of the time.

This is utter, utter horseshit that an intelligent 8 year old would be embarrassed to write.

I don't even know where to begin. But quoting Orwell when defending Trump is a new low. For anyone.

 

[LlcoolJ]

"To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them, to use logic against logic, to repudiate morality while laying claim to it, to believe that democracy was impossible and that the Party was the guardian of democracy, to forget whatever it was necessary to forget, then to draw it back into memory again at the moment when it was needed, and then promptly to forget it again: and above all, to apply the same process to the process itself -- that was the ultimate subtlety: consciously to induce unconsciousness, and then, once again, to become unconscious of the act of hypnosis you had just performed. Even to understand the word 'doublethink' involved the use of doublethink."
- George Orwell, 1984

Yes, we've all read 1984 you ****ing moron. Nothing in it backs up your support of Donald Trump. For god's sake. Someone bring the men in white coats......