[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...

[Hotchilidog]

This.

Could still be Truss v Mordant as the final two.

Rishi may have 'peaked'?

As Rishi looks more uncertain to win the members vote, this could be case.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Sunak is also going to be moving to India at some indeterminate point in the future, potentially tomorrow. Simply on this basis, I am not sure how he can be taken in anyway seriously.

One thing's for sure, none of these ****s are going to be hanging around in parliament for very long in opposition

 

[Lenny Rider]

See my thread about Elizabeth Holmes. When someone can tell people what they want to hear in a way that makes them want to believe them, common sense is left at the door. Who and what you believe are driven by confirmation biases. If you never liked unions, the EU or the nanny state, then you want to believe the cheeky chap who looks you in the eye and says, don't worry, I'll fix it, and cracks a couple of jokes. That's how it worked. And even his detractors tell us he got Brexit done and saved us all from Covid and Corbyn. Only those inside the machine (conservative MPs) can see the truth, and even though they ditched him ruthlessly they remain desperate to convince the public this is simply a slight change in presentation . . . . .

Whether you buy this or not will be determined by your confirmation bias.

Have you watched the Holmes docu drama on Disney?

And has she been sentenced yet?

 

[Hugo Rune]

As Rishi looks more uncertain to win the members vote, this could be case.

No. Sunak just needs 8 more votes to get to the last two. You only need a minimum of a third of the Tory MPs backing you. Assuming none of his current voters switch and that Tug-in-hat’s voters back him, he is almost there.

Mordaunt is the one to look out for I think, but if Truss beats her and wins the membership support, Mrs Starmer would be able to start selecting wallpaper to replace the vulgar stuff currently existing in the Downing Street flat. Truss is truly unelectable as PM.

 

[Acker79]

Out of interest, are there any NSC posters with an Indian heritage? I'm keen to understand how someone like Suella Braverman can be so anti-immigrant....her parents came here in the 60s, but presumably now would have difficulty getting into the UK. It seems she is happy to have benefited from the UK's relatively light touch immigration controls fifty or sixty years ago, but now doesn't appear to want others to have the same advantages. But maybe that's just basic Conservatism....look out for yourself!

She's not alone. There have been and are people throughout history who align with parties that would normally be against them. Republicans are actively taking rights away from women, yet there are plenty of women who will join the republicans. Caitlin Jenner has come out in support of a republican party (tried to run as a republican politician on a republican platform of taking rights away from trans people). Black people, LGBTQ+ people have sided with powerful people in the past and today. It's the same as the women who try to fight feminism.

Obviously, there isn't one reason that applies to all, but the most common reasons tend to be, as you say, the basic idea of looking out for yourself. But that isn't always about a selfish grasp for power, sometimes it's about survival. When you're part of a marginalised community, sometimes siding with the abusers/oppressors is a way of self-protection - 'don't attack me, I'm one of the good ones! I'm on your side, look I'll keep them down just like you!' By agreeing with the powerful, embracing their ideas, there's the hope they won't turn on you.

I imagine there are also less sympathetic reason. Sometimes it is about greed or selfish grasp for power. Sometimes it's about self hate. There are probably other reasons.

I wouldn't want to claim which is the reason for Suella specifically, but there are a range of possibilities.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Suella Braverman out

She got 27 votes which was surprising for me at first, because she comes across as so unhinged, really playing up to anti-EU people and those who want the culture wars stoked.

I then realised that those 27 must be more or less, the people she’d promised a cabinet position to.

 

[BLOCK F]

I'm quite interested in what attracts you to Sunak as PM.

Given that Sunak has been in the second most senior position in the country, with particular responsibility for the economy throughout the vast majority of Johnson's premiership, what sort of radical changes do you think he's now going to bring to the table to reverse the impending economic disaster, that he hasn't in the last 2.5 years ?

Or are you looking simply for the stability of more of the same ?

Hi Watford,
I think I put in an earlier post some way back about my backing for Sunak. Can’t be arsed to find it, but basically, it was less of an attraction to Sunak, but rather more of a slightly flippant reasoning why I preferred him to the other candidates.
Think it went along the lines of Truss, slightly bonkers, ditto Braverman and possibly Badenoch may fall into that category as well.
Sahawi I saw as a chancer and at the time of writing that post, Mordaunt hadn’t uttered a word and although Tugendhat seems ok, I knew nothing about him. Hunt, I described as yesterday’s man.
I understand that Braverman is now out.
Despite Sunak being in Government alongside Johnson, I do believe that the relationship between the two was never an easy one and I am pretty sure that there were a lot of differences of opinions between the pair. I feel that Sunak is a clever fellow with the intellectual nous to deal with the huge challenges that any PM faces. Like any new PM, he will have to learn fast on the job and improve some aspects of his judgement and political antenna. I believe he is capable of this. Additionally, unlike the other candidates, he hasn’t promised unrealistic tax cuts.
Economic disaster? Well, after Covid, the energy crisis and global inflation, it was always going to be a tough gig and there are no quick solutions or clever answers, so as for ‘radical changes’, I honestly do not know and I await to hear from the economic experts on NSC as to what they think he should do. In the meantime, I dare say he shall put more meat on the bones should he get to the final two.
I am certainly not looking for the stability of more of the same and have been pretty vocal for some time in stating my wish for Johnson’s departure. He is by far and away, the worst PM, I can remember. The choice between him and Corbyn was a particularly low point in British politics.

 

[Dick Head]

 

[Bodian]

As a business owner, my company (and myself as an individual) pay a lot of tax

No problem with paying tax - in fact I'd rather pay more providing it went to the right people and places, i.e. front line health workers etc.

Problem is (and my wife works in the public sector so I see/hear first hand the issues) I see the incredible amount of waste, multi-tiered management levels, unsustainable pensions in local government etc.

Raise taxes by all means, but make sure those taxes are spent wisely.

You do know that the local government pension scheme is fully funded, and not reliant on future tax? And therefore wholly sustainable. And to be honest - not huge either.

 

[Machiavelli]

Out of interest, are there any NSC posters with an Indian heritage? I'm keen to understand how someone like Suella Braverman can be so anti-immigrant....her parents came here in the 60s, but presumably now would have difficulty getting into the UK. It seems she is happy to have benefited from the UK's relatively light touch immigration controls fifty or sixty years ago, but now doesn't appear to want others to have the same advantages. But maybe that's just basic Conservatism....look out for yourself!

Some might say she's just continuing Gandhi's project. Despite his reputation for pacifism and practical introduction of NVCD in the face of the British Empire, he was left forthcoming in his critique of the violence meted out by the British Empire when in South Africa.
Fortunately, Braverman no longer has the platform to make such a claim, so now I can share it.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Have you watched the Holmes docu drama on Disney?

And has she been sentenced yet?

Afternoon squire. I have watched two programmes about her (could be the same one, twice, but I think they were different).

Here is the latest news: On January 3, 2022, Holmes was found guilty on four counts of defrauding investors – three counts of wire fraud, and one of conspiracy to commit wire fraud. She was found not guilty on four counts of defrauding patients – three counts of wire fraud and one of conspiracy to commit wire fraud. The jury returned a "no verdict" on three counts of wire fraud against investors – the judge declared a mistrial on those counts and the government soon after agreed to dismiss them. Holmes is awaiting sentencing while remaining 'at liberty' on $500,000 bail, secured with property. She faces a maximum sentence of twenty years in prison, and a fine of $250,000, plus restitution, for each count of wire fraud and for each conspiracy count. The sentences would likely be served concurrently thus an effective maximum of 20 years total. Sentencing is scheduled for October 17, 2022.

In the trial she blamed employees and her partner for misleading her. Her father, Christian Rasmus Holmes IV, was a vice president at Enron, the energy company that later went bankrupt after an accounting fraud scandal. Say no more.....

 

[Iggle Piggle]

Ignore me, I'm posting old news.

 

[Audax]

Out of interest, are there any NSC posters with an Indian heritage? I'm keen to understand how someone like Suella Braverman can be so anti-immigrant....her parents came here in the 60s, but presumably now would have difficulty getting into the UK. It seems she is happy to have benefited from the UK's relatively light touch immigration controls fifty or sixty years ago, but now doesn't appear to want others to have the same advantages. But maybe that's just basic Conservatism....look out for yourself!

I don't know enough about her background ... is the family well off?

Is she "anti-immigrant" or, as I suspect to be the case with many conservatives, actually "anti supporting those less well off" (driven by a fear of forfeiting a tiny portion of their own wealth to help support those less well off) and a very easy manifestation of that being anti-refugee / anti-immigration. Fewer poor-people in the country = less of a risk to their own personal wealth.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

She's not alone. There have been and are people throughout history who align with parties that would normally be against them. Republicans are actively taking rights away from women, yet there are plenty of women who will join the republicans. Caitlin Jenner has come out in support of a republican party (tried to run as a republican politician on a republican platform of taking rights away from trans people). Black people, LGBTQ+ people have sided with powerful people in the past and today. It's the same as the women who try to fight feminism.

Obviously, there isn't one reason that applies to all, but it the most common reasons tend to be as you the basic idea of looking out for yourself. But that isn't always about a selfish grasp for power, sometimes it's about survival. When you're part of a marginalised community, sometimes siding with the abusers/oppressors is a way of self-protection - 'don't attack me, I'm one of the good ones! I'm on your side, look I'll keep them down just like you!' By agreeing with the powerful, embracing their ideas, there's the hope they won't turn on you.

I imagine there are also less sympathetic reason. Sometimes it is about greed or selfish grasp for power. Sometimes it's about self hate. There are probably other reasons.

I wouldn't want to claim which is the reason for Suella specifically, but there are a range of possibilities.

I agree with your analysis. That mentality has always interested me. From black members of the National Front (there were, tolerated for comedy purposes I suspect) to working class tories, people who identify with their natuaral adversaries are perhaps exhibiting the contrarian streak that seems to run throgh the human populace, manifesting here and there in the phenotype.

The way is see it is that being a contrarian can have its advantages. Whether it be taking cold showers, exercising to the point of pain, learning an awkward foreign language, trying alien cuisine (I will interject here - my dad wouldn't touch 'foreign muck' - a stance that today seems perverse), being bi-curious, emigrating, aligning with a political party that on the surface wants to exploit you (or worse).....to some a challenge, to others an abomination.

The odd thing is that this diversity is what makes humans strong. Ironic, if your thing is to be anti-diversity, to the point of turning your back on your class or your race and all the liberation struggles they have endured in order to align with organizations that are not in favour of change in general, or 'your sort' in particular.

The UK tories are an amazing lot, though. Happy for decades with the 'post war concensus', then lurching off gleefully into Thatcher's anti-society revolution, then swinging back with Call Me Dave, to recently praising the NHS, then selecting an absolute arse as leader, and now having several non-white and non-male leadership candidates, one of each now favourite, without apparently batting an eyelid.

As a labour party member, I admit to being unsure which is best - to have no principles and operate entirely pragmatically, or to cling on to an ideal, even if it has proven only partially workable at best (and even that, 'New Labour' got pelters from the ideological left).

Well, I'm sticking with labour for the forseeable. It ditched Corbyn after, hopefully, a never-to-be-repeated interlude of soppiness, and is a couple of years ahead of the conservatives in the 'what shall we do now we have ditched the idiot?' stakes.

 

[Audax]

The five candidates who have made it through are:

Rishi Sunak - 101 votes
Penny Mordaunt - 83 votes
Liz Truss - 64 votes
Kemi Badenoch - 49 votes
Tom Tugendhat - 32 votes

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

Rishi will pick up enough votes via Tugendhat (either immediately in Monday's vote as his support desserts the sinking ship or on Tuesday when Tugendhat drops out) to secure 1 of the two final spots.

The other spot then depends on what happens with Braverman's 27 votes. There's enough there for Badenoch to pass Truss. Question is ... were those 27 backing Braverman as their preferred "Johnsonite" - in which case they go to Truss. Or were they backing her for her on-the-right politics, in which case they might go Badenoch.

Final four will definitely be Sunak, Mordaunt, Truss, Badenoch - but a lot then rests on the exact order of Truss/Badenoch. Badenoch 4th I suspect might result in Truss overtaking Mordaunt for 2nd. Truss 4th I think guarantees Mordaunt 2nd.

 

[rogersix]

Not aiming this at any specific post or poster, but I feel a certain concern when those who habitually don’t vote for the Conservatives wish the stupidest/most lethal candidate on us.

We will all (regardless of political allegiance) have to live in whatever environment our incoming Prime Minister creates, and as a British citizen I want our country to be respectable and respected.

Personally I would prefer Tom Tugendhat as PM, but fear he may not have sufficient support among the membership, leaving Penny Mordaunt as potentially the least worst option out of the unholy trinity of Sunak/Mordaunt/Truss.

I would also prefer him,but my logic goes, the more obvious the catastrophic omnishambles, the longer the Tories will be in opposition, the greater the good for the nation, long term.

It's a maximum of two and a half years

 

[rogersix]

Well, that is going to be good for the country isn’t it and just what we need.
Presumably you have said that more in the interest of the Labour Party than the country.
I wouldn’t want her as PM.
Come on Roger, a properly run Labour Party should be able to beat the Conservatives at the next election, whoever is voted leader, but let us not wish someone whom you consider more incompetent than Johnson to run the country, in the meantime.

Apologies. I've voted for the big three and the greens in my time, usually lib dem, everything always seem better when the Tories are in opposition, imo, regardless

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Had hoped that Tom Tugendhat might have made a credible fist of it. Right up to the point where he held that 'impromptu press conference' outside parliament. Sadly just came across at that point as fairly seriously unhinged

 

[BLOCK F]

Had hoped that Tom Tugendhat might have made a credible fist of it. Right up to the point where he held that 'impromptu press conference' outside parliament. Sadly just came across at that point as fairly seriously unhinged

Oh, I haven’t heard about that, what happened?

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Oh, I haven’t heard about that, what happened?

It was yesterday morning in the fresh air. He got all punchy and gave the thousand stare at anybody asking a reasonable question of the kind that you'd ask a candidate for next leader of the country. It was actually quite disturbing to watch