The Incredible Points Gap

[Lord Bracknell]

After yesterday's games, my updated predictions of season-end positions, based on the different form of teams when they play rivals in the top half of the table as opposed to teams in the bottom half ...

Albion have now played eleven top half teams (winning an average of 1.63 points per game) and eleven bottom half teams (winning an average of 2.27 points per game). Project those figures forward for the rest of the season and we end up with another 18 points coming our way from teams in the top half and 30 points due to us from teams in the bottom half. After eliminating the effects of rounding, that gives us a total of 90 points at the end of the season.

Do the same for every other team in the division ... and the predicted top two are:-
Brighton 90 points
Bournemouth 83 points

Play-off places go to:-
Southampton (77)
Hartlepool (71)
Charlton (71)
Huddersfield (71)

Peterborough and Sheffield Wednesday end up with 70 points.

Updating this calculation, my current end of season predictions are:-

Brighton 93
Bournemouth 79
Huddersfield 76
Southampton 75
Peterborough 74
Charlton 73

Hartlepool and Sheffield Wednesday have faded away. Oldham, Carlisle and Colchester are now the teams in 7th, 8th and 9th position.