The Incredible Points Gap

[Lord Bracknell]

It's always fun to play around with stats.

I've had a closer look at the different form of teams when they play rivals in the top half of the table as opposed to teams in the bottom half.

So far, Albion have played eleven top half teams (winning an average of 1.63 points per game) and ten bottom half teams (winning an average of 2.20 points per game). Project those figures forward for the rest of the season and we end up with another 18 points coming our way from teams in the top half and 31 points due to us from teams in the bottom half. That gives us a total of 89 points at the end of the season.

Do the same for every other team in the division ... and the predicted top two are:-
Brighton 89 points
Bournemouth 80 points

Play-off places go to:-
Southampton (74)
Charlton (74)
Hartlepool (74)
Sheffield Wednesday (72),
with Oldham and MK Dons also ending up with 72 points.

Brentford and Colchester aren't far behind, either. Huddersfield fade away, though.

A very tight competition for play-off places (as we know), but reasonably comfortable at the top.

One caveat - I'm treating future away games as no more difficult from future home games - the factor that matters is whether future opponents are top half or bottom half opposition. Add in the home/away factor, and the prediction will, no doubt, be different.

 

[newhaven seagull 85]

i'm slightly worried that the run-in is very difficult with our last three games against saints,wednesday and huddersfield. hopefully we are promoted by then.

 

[Napper]

i'm slightly worried that the run-in is very difficult with our last three games against saints,wednesday and huddersfield. hopefully we are promoted by then.

Dont worry , we are brilliant

 

[upthealbion1970]

Dont worry , we are brilliant

Think brilliant may be just a touch OTT, but we are very good at home - who would have thought that 12 months ago!!!!!

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

So 6 points (was 6 before today) clear of 2nd
Now 7 points (was 6) clear of the play off places
And 10 points (was 8) clear of 7th place.

Very handy! Seven points from nine this week is a great return.

 

[phoenix]

I think thats good.Its all down to us then.


(The last 3 home games)

 

[Barrel of Fun]

It's been improved to take into account goal difference, I hope.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

Some stats:

Only one away game left against teams in the Top 8
All four bottom teams still to play away
Still to play Dag & Red and Notts County at all
Despite (former) dip in form, we're still 3rd best away from home in last 6 matches

Wobble over? Could do without the distraction of the Cup in my view. Peterborough (h) and Bournemouth (a) look almost season defining now.

 

[Lord Bracknell]

After yesterday's games, my updated predictions of season-end positions, based on the different form of teams when they play rivals in the top half of the table as opposed to teams in the bottom half ...

Albion have now played eleven top half teams (winning an average of 1.63 points per game) and eleven bottom half teams (winning an average of 2.27 points per game). Project those figures forward for the rest of the season and we end up with another 18 points coming our way from teams in the top half and 30 points due to us from teams in the bottom half. After eliminating the effects of rounding, that gives us a total of 90 points at the end of the season.

Do the same for every other team in the division ... and the predicted top two are:-
Brighton 90 points
Bournemouth 83 points

Play-off places go to:-
Southampton (77)
Hartlepool (71)
Charlton (71)
Huddersfield (71)

Peterborough and Sheffield Wednesday end up with 70 points.

 

[Barrel of Fun]

Two tables to feast your eyes on.

The first one is a copy of the one above and provides a overview of current form.

The second one is goalscorers. Bear in mind that we are only just halfway through, we have been spoiled for the amount of goals thus far!

 

[Easy 10]

Interesting stuff. And one of the best stats as far as I am concerned is that we will go into February UNBEATEN at home. I don't think we managed that even in our title winning seasons.

I'm not counting chickens just yet and will be happy, nay delirious if our squad is intact come Feb 1st. But we don't look like a side that is likely to go on a catastrophic run of results, and the chasing pack just do not seem capable of hitting the consistency to overhaul us.

 

[Easy 10]

We didn't get to the end of October unbeaten at home in either of those seasons!

I agree with your second paragraph though. We're too good to go on a bad run simply because we will never face a run of games against teams that are all capable of beating us. Sure, we might lose the odd game. You never know, we might even get overtaken at the top of the table briefly by a side. But if there are two teams that are at least six points better than us over 20 games then I'll offer myself up as live bait in a shark hunt.

And I reckon some on here would hire the boat

So far this season, the "panic stations" run of League results was:

Hartlepool 3 Albion 1
Albion 2 Bristol R 2
SCC 0 Albion 0
Hudds 2 Albion 1
Albion 1 Charlton 1

A run that was ended with a 2-1 win at tough-at-home Exeter and a 5-0 molesting against (in form) Orient.

So two creditable draws against what would be considered promotion rivals, a narrow defeat away at another, with just that indifferent defeat at Pools and a last gasp thrown-away couple of points against Rovers.

If thats the extent of our BLIP then I think we still could afford another couple of those and still be home and hosed when the gongs come out in May.

 

[Easy 10]

Spot on. I think we could lose five or even six more matches and still go up reasonably comfortably. There will be the odd off-day such as Hartlepool and Bournemouth along the way, but in 21 games I'd be surprised if we failed to win in excess of half of them and I'd be even more surprised if we lost more than five. I guess what I'm trying to say we've done so well that really we've bought ourselves the luxury of not having to worry about anyone else. Unless we bottle it we're going up.

In total agreement then

BUT

That all changes if we lose Bennett and / or Glenn this month. Once again tonight they showed just how indispensible they are to this team. Murray is playing like a man possessed, his touch, class, perceptiveness and workrate was just on another level. I've never seen him in such a consistently rich vein of form for us. Week in, week out for the last 3 months he has been superb.

And frankly I run out of superlatives for Bennett. He is the beating heart of this side going forward, and Gus is so, so right to give him almost free reign to rove and create havoc in the opposition half. Pace, control, finding space, utilising it and playing the right ball (witness the sumptuous first-timer out to Noone for the 2nd). He is so good I watch through suppressed tears of joy whenever he is within 10 yards of the ball. Truly irreplaceable.

Lose either of those, and this could well become a different season.

 

[Barrel of Fun]

Agree with you both.

Is Bennett the most complete player we have had at Withdean (or beyond?)? I find it hard to believe that Wolves were, seemingly, more than happy to sell him off and not loan him out. I thought he had gone off tonight, but then noticed that he had dropped back in another roaming role, cleaning up in front of the back four and then orchestrating the attacks. He does it effortlessly as well.

Murray was roaming about as well. I love watching him run with the ball. I was trying to liken him to a mammal. I couldn't come up with anything logical. It is a sort of proud rooster, gazelle type combination.

 

[clapham_gull]

Consistency is quite obviously important and can make the difference between a player in playing in the premiership or plying his trade in league one.

We are usually starved of quality at this level, but every now and then you get a glimpse of what a player could be.

We are unlikely to see it for 90 mins, but Murray did a couple of things tonight that were worthy of any premiership striker.

He was a joy to watch and well worthy of his MOTM.

 

[Norman Potting]

Agree with you both.

"....... It is a sort of proud rooster, gazelle type combination."

And I am sure that Glenn would be glad of that description

Seriously, some very class performers in the team now, we even have a full back who knows how to find the back of the net.

 

[Scoffers]

In total agreement then

BUT

That all changes if we lose Bennett and / or Glenn this month. Once again tonight they showed just how indispensible they are to this team. Murray is playing like a man possessed, his touch, class, perceptiveness and workrate was just on another level. I've never seen him in such a consistently rich vein of form for us. Week in, week out for the last 3 months he has been superb.

And frankly I run out of superlatives for Bennett. He is the beating heart of this side going forward, and Gus is so, so right to give him almost free reign to rove and create havoc in the opposition half. Pace, control, finding space, utilising it and playing the right ball (witness the sumptuous first-timer out to Noone for the 2nd). He is so good I watch through suppressed tears of joy whenever he is within 10 yards of the ball. Truly irreplaceable.

Lose either of those, and this could well become a different season.

What is it you are supposed to say? Oh yes
THIS

 

[skipper734]

Bit like this. Monarch of the Glen.