[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread

[LamieRobertson]

Potency in.....?

Come on! Don't just leave us hanging there!

Lol ..yes sorry potency in.....


and that’s all we have time for today

 

[A1X]

Schools going back in the next couple of weeks is the next big challenge (especially as already seen a few localised outbreaks in Scotland), if that goes well then things are looking very positive.

 

[Mellotron]

Indeed - for those of us wondering why we haven't heard any update on further easing of social distancing etc for some while, I'm guessing the Government want to wait until schools have been back a few weeks to measure the effect that has had. If that is (broadly) successful, I think we will see some further easing in October & November.

Apparently there have been positive noises in Germany recently with regards the return of schools not bothering the infection rate too much.

 

[Mellotron]

Moderna says its coronavirus vaccine shows promising results in small trial of elderly patients

8/26/2020

Moderna’s potential coronavirus vaccine generated a promising immune response in elderly patients in an early stage clinical trial, the biotech firm announced Wednesday.

The company tested its vaccine on 10 adults between the ages of 56 and 70 and 10 elderly adults aged 71 and older, Moderna said. Each participant received two 100 microgram doses of the vaccine 28 days apart.

The volunteers produced neutralizing antibodies, which researchers believe are necessary to build immunity to the virus, and T-cells, Moderna said in its results, which have not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal. Additionally, the antibodies that were produced were higher than those seen in people who have recovered from Covid-19.

The vaccine also appeared to be well tolerated, with no serious adverse events reported, the company said. Some patients reported fatigue, chills, headaches and pain at the injection site, though the majority of symptoms resolved within two days, the company said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/26/moderna-says-its-coronavirus-vaccine-shows-promising-results-in-small-trial-of-elderly-patients.html

 

[highflyer]

Schools going back in the next couple of weeks is the next big challenge (especially as already seen a few localised outbreaks in Scotland), if that goes well then things are looking very positive.

Indeed. It still seems unclear just how much school age children act as transmitters (it's very clear that they are at almost no risk themselves). BUT track and trace should work very well for any outbreaks linked to schools, as it is very easy to work out, and contact, anyone that may have been exposed.

The real problem I think lies with pubs, bars, clubs, holiday venues etc, where you have people mixing with strangers (and with alcolhol). So tracking and tracing is much harder. It doesn't mean there won't be outbreaks linked to schools, but it does mean they can be dealt with quickly and kept very localised (even within the schools themselves).

I am less concerned about schools returning than I was about pubs re-opening. And that's despite it posing slightly more risk to me personally. it's far far more important to get children back to school than it was to get adults back in pubs (yes yes, heresy I know).

 

[Spiros]

One bit of good news which I haven't seen properly reported is the continued decline in deaths. If you look at the stats for France their numbers of infections are currently the same as at the peak in April, about 5,000 per day, however the first half of April saw between 400 and 1,500 deaths per day whereas now they're seeing 11 a day with that number still declining. Similar pattern for Spain, UK, etc. Maybe the virus has mutated, almost certainly we've found much better ways to treat it. It just doesn't seem like something long-term deadly any more (or am I getting a bit too rose-tinted here?)

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

One bit of good news which I haven't seen properly reported is the continued decline in deaths. If you look at the stats for France their numbers of infections are currently the same as at the peak in April, about 5,000 per day, however the first half of April saw between 400 and 1,500 deaths per day whereas now they're seeing 11 a day with that number still declining. Similar pattern for Spain, UK, etc. Maybe the virus has mutated, almost certainly we've found much better ways to treat it. It just doesn't seem like something long-term deadly any more (or am I getting a bit too rose-tinted here?)

Just by way of explanation, as it is the Good News Thread. The case numbers we are picking up now are not comparable to those in the early days of the crisis. We were only testing 21,000 people a day in April and most of those were ill and in hospital. Now we are testing over 150,000 a day and most of those are community based, younger and asymptomatic.

Now there is a possibility that the virus is weakening as that is not an unlikely event for a virus, but simply comparing case numbers from different times is ineffective as a tool to measure mortality rates.

 

[portlock seagull]

Just by way of explanation, as it is the Good News Thread. The case numbers we are picking up now are not comparable to those in the early days of the crisis. We were only testing only 21,000 people a day in April and most of those were ill and in hospital. Now we are testing over 150,000 a day and most of those are community based, younger and asymptomatic.

Now there is a possibility that the virus is weakening as that is not an unlikely event for a virus, but simply comparing case numbers from different times is ineffective as a tool to measure mortality rates.

Thank you GCCM, genuinely mean it when say was feeling a bit depressed about cv19 and the future today and so clicked on this thread, read your post and it's cheered me up.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Just by way of explanation, as it is the Good News Thread. The case numbers we are picking up now are not comparable to those in the early days of the crisis. We were only testing only 21,000 people a day in April and most of those were ill and in hospital. Now we are testing over 150,000 a day and most of those are community based, younger and asymptomatic.

Now there is a possibility that the virus is weakening as that is not an unlikely event for a virus, but simply comparing case numbers from different times is ineffective as a tool to measure mortality rates.

Another option is that we missed millions of cases making it less harmful.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Thank you GCCM, genuinely mean it when say was feeling a bit depressed about cv19 and the future today and so clicked on this thread, read your post and it's cheered me up.

No problem. Sorry you were feeling low. It is genuinely good that so many cases now are not as serious as before. I think we are headed in the right direction.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Another option is that we missed millions of cases making it less harmful.

Yes, we will have missed millions of cases early on as we didn't know enough about the disease and it took too long to 'ramp up' testing to a better level. I have no doubt that the current mortality rate is improved by older people continuing to shield (my own parents are being very careful as they are in their late 70's but are not otherwise unhealthy) and at risk people generally shielding. Had we known more about it, we would have been prepared to let Nursing Homes and older and vulnerable people shield from late February and the mortality rate would have maybe been more similar to now.

The good news part of this is that we are at least now well prepared for any further outbreaks and for any other similar diseases in the future.

 

[Billy the Fish]

Another option is that we missed millions of cases making it less harmful.

I think this is highly probably. There must have been millions of young people spreading it around in Feburary and March but with only mild symptoms or none at all. These people won't register on the antibody test.

 

[A1X]

Another option is that we missed millions of cases making it less harmful.

I'd say it's almost certain, and why we need to find an antibody test to try and work out just how many people had it.

 

[portlock seagull]

No problem. Sorry you were feeling low. It is genuinely good that so many cases now are not as serious as before. I think we are headed in the right direction.

We all have blues days, I’ll be fine tomorrow. Just wanted to point out that your post had lifted someone’s spirit out there in the great Ethernet. That’s what love about NSC. The world wide webs greatest pub!

 

[Spiros]

Just by way of explanation, as it is the Good News Thread. The case numbers we are picking up now are not comparable to those in the early days of the crisis. We were only testing 21,000 people a day in April and most of those were ill and in hospital. Now we are testing over 150,000 a day and most of those are community based, younger and asymptomatic.

Now there is a possibility that the virus is weakening as that is not an unlikely event for a virus, but simply comparing case numbers from different times is ineffective as a tool to measure mortality rates.

I think you make a fine point, however I think the additional good news is that if we did see similar levels of infection to March/April, even in the vulnerable/elderly, the numbers of deaths would still be massively down because the medical profession know a lot more now about the beast they're fighting and how to fight it, rather than just shove everyone who's struggling to breathe onto a ventilator

 

[East Staffs Gull]

Just by way of explanation, as it is the Good News Thread. The case numbers we are picking up now are not comparable to those in the early days of the crisis. We were only testing 21,000 people a day in April and most of those were ill and in hospital. Now we are testing over 150,000 a day and most of those are community based, younger and asymptomatic.

Now there is a possibility that the virus is weakening as that is not an unlikely event for a virus, but simply comparing case numbers from different times is ineffective as a tool to measure mortality rates.

Out of interest, where are the 150,000 a day coming from? I know there are different criteria for testing; one of the main ones being that a person is exhibiting symptoms. So, why are so many younger and asymptomatic people apparently being tested?

 

[highflyer]

Out of interest, where are the 150,000 a day coming from? I know there are different criteria for testing; one of the main ones being that a person is exhibiting symptoms. So, why are so many younger and asymptomatic people apparently being tested?

• NHS staff (and care workers?) getting tested regularly now
• Track and Trace will generate a lot of tests for people without symptoms
• And people will self-refer if they have been in contact with anyone with symptoms

Just my guesses/assumptions

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Possible evidence of herd immunity in a Brazilian state. Some believe herd immunity could be achieved with as little as around 20% infection rate. If, and it is a huge if, this turns out to be correct, this would be fantastic news for all of us as we would be able to continue controlling the disease effectively until a vaccine is ready.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...ccda40-d80e-11ea-930e-d88518c57dcc_story.html


“Manaus is an interesting case, indeed,” said Jarbas Barbosa da Silva, assistant director of the Pan American Health Organization. “The hypothesis — and this is just a hypothesis — is that the peak we had in Manaus was very strong, and there was such widespread community transmission that it may have produced some kind of collective immunity.”

 

[Poojah]

Right, I just wanted to chime in with some anti-bad news on the good news thread, given it's the bad news that's currently the lead story on Sky News and the like. I quote: UK reports highest number of coronavirus cases since 12 June with 1,522 infections.

Taking that headline in isolation, we've gone backwards nearly three months - quite a stark claim. However, here are two charts from the government web site where the daily stats are published:



As you'll see, the recent (i.e. post 12th June) record in cases also corresponds with a record in tests processed. And that's the thing, given that tests processed are a constantly moving target, case numbers alone are a bit of an irrelevant, blunt instrument. We also need to be wary of a single day's data, due to the potential for statistical anomalies. A more useful measure is the infection rate, ergo the number of people tested who return a positive sample, taken as a 7 day rolling average.

Here's how that looks since the beginning of June:



What we have is a generally pretty flat situation, if anything we're down on the past couple of weeks. Admittedly, in the interest of balance we're slightly up on where we were in early July, but when you consider how much more social interaction and economic activity we have going on, I'd say the level of increase we've seen is a worthwhile price to pay for the nation as a whole.

The media need to hold their horses when it comes to reporting daily data. It could be a spike which marks the beginning of the second wave, but it probably isn't. Until we see this kind of rise sustained over a period of days, it's really in the interest of public anxiety for Sky News and the like to keep their ink dry.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Right, I just wanted to chime in with some anti-bad news on the good news thread, given it's the bad news that's currently the lead story on Sky News and the like. I quote: UK reports highest number of coronavirus cases since 12 June with 1,522 infections.

Taking that headline in isolation, we've gone backwards nearly three months - quite a stark claim. However, here are two charts from the government web site where the daily stats are published:

View attachment 127743

As you'll see, the recent (i.e. post 12th June) record in cases also corresponds with a record in tests processed. And that's the thing, given that tests processed are a constantly moving target, case numbers alone are a bit of an irrelevant, blunt instrument. We also need to be wary of a single day's data, due to the potential for statistical anomalies. A more useful measure is the infection rate, ergo the number of people tested who return a positive sample, taken as a 7 day rolling average.

Here's how that looks since the beginning of June:

View attachment 127744

What we have is a generally pretty flat situation, if anything we're down on the past couple of weeks. Admittedly, in the interest of balance we're slightly up on where we were in early July, but when you consider how much more social interaction and economic activity we have going on, I'd say the level of increase we've seen is a worthwhile price to pay for the nation as a whole.

The media need to hold their horses when it comes to reporting daily data. It could be a spike which marks the beginning of the second wave, but it probably isn't. Until we see this kind of rise sustained over a period of days, it's really in the interest of public anxiety for Sky News and the like to keep their ink dry.

Good post.

Add this data and things are definitely rather more positive than the headlines suggest.

[TWEET]1299010340794052613[/TWEET]

It appears a lot of cases from about a week ago were added today.