[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread

[dazzer6666]

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[giveusfalmerplease]

Need to have a think about the vaccination rate relative to the most vulnerable....without doing the sums, seems to me there is a massively front-loaded positive impact of the vacc programme. Very high % of the hospitalised come from high risk categories that will be vaccinated first....so we can expect the numbers in hospital, ICU and dying to dramatically decline as the vaccinations take effect on those most at risk.

except that it seems they have now changed tack and are going for more people to get one vacination rather than the most vulnerable getting two. AZ said their results were based upon TWO injections so going against the science. I dont think the government should be playing with peoples lives here.

 

[clapham_gull]

except that it seems they have now changed tack and are going for more people to get one vacination rather than the most vulnerable getting two. AZ said their results were based upon TWO injections so going against the science. I dont think the government should be playing with peoples lives here.

Wasn't the government's decision, it was taken independently.

 

[Bozza]

except that it seems they have now changed tack and are going for more people to get one vacination rather than the most vulnerable getting two. AZ said their results were based upon TWO injections so going against the science. I dont think the government should be playing with peoples lives here.

1. It wasn't the government, it was JCVI.

2. The decision from JCVI seems to be based on data that indicates that c90% protection is achieved from the first jab, with the second jab boosting that to 95%, as well as potentially extending the longevity of that protection.

I've not read too much about this, but it does seem to be pragmatic to get twice as many people to 90% protection in the same amount of time that half that number could get to 95%, particularly given the infection/hospitalisation and death surge being experienced.

Who'd want to make these decisions though, eh?

 

[dazzer6666]

1. It wasn't the government, it was JCVI.

2. The decision from JCVI seems to be based on data that indicates that c90% protection is achieved from the first jab, with the second jab boosting that to 95%, as well as potentially extending the longevity of that protection.

I've not read too much about this, but it does seem to be pragmatic to get twice as many people to 90% protection in the same amount of time that half that number could get to 95%, particularly given the infection/hospitalisation and death surge being experienced.

Who'd want to make these decisions though, eh?

That’s my understanding. A single jab should very dramatically, if not almost eliminate, the risk of serious illness or hospitalisation so it makes sense to cover as many people as possible as fast as possible whilst the capacity is ramped up. Boosters can follow.

 

[Machiavelli]

Oxford Astra Zeneca vaccinations have begun

 

[Mellotron]

Oxford Astra Zeneca vaccinations have begun

Seems we're hoping to do 530,000 at the very least this week, but hoping/likely quite a bit more.

Then it should start to ramp up significantly in the coming weeks.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Seems we're hoping to do 530,000 at the very least this week, but hoping/likely quite a bit more.

Then it should start to ramp up significantly in the coming weeks.

Excellent news....good to get the thread back on track

 

[highflyer]

1. It wasn't the government, it was JCVI.

2. The decision from JCVI seems to be based on data that indicates that c90% protection is achieved from the first jab, with the second jab boosting that to 95%, as well as potentially extending the longevity of that protection.

I've not read too much about this, but it does seem to be pragmatic to get twice as many people to 90% protection in the same amount of time that half that number could get to 95%, particularly given the infection/hospitalisation and death surge being experienced.

Who'd want to make these decisions though, eh?

To me, the data and analysis that drives this decision and the fact that the tactic has changed is essentially very good news, given the situation we are now in. Time is of the essence and we need to get that vaccine into as many arms as possible as quickly as possible.
If a single jab gives anywhere close to that level of protection and (as seems to be the case) the limiting factor will soon be the number of doses available rather than the capacity to give the jabs, then it's far better that every single dose for the next two months goes into a fresh arm.

Personally, I wonder if they should not have at least kept with the second jab appointments that had already been made, to avoid the confusion and inevitable complaints, and switched to the longer time frame for all first jabs onwards, but that's not a major issue in the larger scheme of things.

Obviously there are very difficult times ahead in the next few months, but my thinking on numbers is that there are three key moments in time we now need to be looking for:

Assuming we have done close to a million jabs already and will get up to 2 million/week fairly quickly now.

1. Around 3-4 million jabs done + two weeks. This should happen around late January and should mean that the majority of over 80's + highly vulnerable people + a substantial % of front line health and care staff have some level of protection and we'll be getting the first discernable benefits in terms of hospitalization and serious illness.

2. Around 10-12 million jabs done + two weeks. Probably mid-late February. This is when over 70's + most health workers, care workers, teachers etc should be largely protected. At this stage we should see a very real difference in infection rates and serious illness and should be the point at which we can begin to (permanently) lift restrictions.

3. 25-30 million jabs done. By end March/early April. This is when we have effective levels of community protection and can start getting back to near 'normal' in terms of how we can live our lives.

Interested to know how others see it?

 

[Mellotron]

Assuming we have done close to a million jabs already and will get up to 2 million/week fairly quickly now.

1. Around 3-4 million jabs done + two weeks. This should happen around late January and should mean that the majority of over 80's + highly vulnerable people + a substantial % of front line health and care staff have some level of protection and we'll be getting the first discernable benefits in terms of hospitalization and serious illness.

2. Around 10-12 million jabs done + two weeks. Probably mid-late February. This is when over 70's + most health workers, care workers, teachers etc should be largely protected. At this stage we should see a very real difference in infection rates and serious illness and should be the point at which we can begin to (permanently) lift restrictions.

3. 25-30 million jabs done. By end March/early April. This is when we have effective levels of community protection and can start getting back to near 'normal' in terms of how we can live our lives.

Interested to know how others see it?

I hope you're right. I'm preparing myself mentally that it may take a little longer, that there may be logistical hiccups we don't anticipate, but broadly this would be my hope. Excellent if so.

 

[Mellotron]

Worth a mention that Johnson & Johnson are apparently now expecting final Phase 3 data within the next 1-3 weeks, theirs is a single dose vaccine and apparently their manufacturing capability is very vast - so this could well be joining the fight in February.

 

[Marshy]

PRH jabbing underway and busy.

Im booked in at 1

 

[studio150]

To me, the data and analysis that drives this decision and the fact that the tactic has changed is essentially very good news, given the situation we are now in. Time is of the essence and we need to get that vaccine into as many arms as possible as quickly as possible.
If a single jab gives anywhere close to that level of protection and (as seems to be the case) the limiting factor will soon be the number of doses available rather than the capacity to give the jabs, then it's far better that every single dose for the next two months goes into a fresh arm.

Personally, I wonder if they should not have at least kept with the second jab appointments that had already been made, to avoid the confusion and inevitable complaints, and switched to the longer time frame for all first jabs onwards, but that's not a major issue in the larger scheme of things.

Obviously there are very difficult times ahead in the next few months, but my thinking on numbers is that there are three key moments in time we now need to be looking for:

Assuming we have done close to a million jabs already and will get up to 2 million/week fairly quickly now.

1. Around 3-4 million jabs done + two weeks. This should happen around late January and should mean that the majority of over 80's + highly vulnerable people + a substantial % of front line health and care staff have some level of protection and we'll be getting the first discernable benefits in terms of hospitalization and serious illness.

2. Around 10-12 million jabs done + two weeks. Probably mid-late February. This is when over 70's + most health workers, care workers, teachers etc should be largely protected. At this stage we should see a very real difference in infection rates and serious illness and should be the point at which we can begin to (permanently) lift restrictions.

3. 25-30 million jabs done. By end March/early April. This is when we have effective levels of community protection and can start getting back to near 'normal' in terms of how we can live our lives.

Interested to know how others see it?

I hope your right, however:

1. The Government have a proven record of over promising and under delivering
2. I'm still not convinced that extending the time between the jabs is the correct way to go, as it may lead to further issues down the line
3. The South African variant may need a different vaccine

Just being my usual pessimistic self.

 

[blue-shifted]

PRH jabbing underway and busy.

Im booked in at 1

May you stab many arms

 

[nickbrighton]

After so many months of this horrible horrible virus I find reading this thread and the various news sites about the Vaccine Program actually underway and a million people in the UK having the first jab, and over13 MILLION world wide quite unexpectedly very emotional.

Today is another of those Good News Days that seemed would never actually materialise, but are now coming regularly. Vaccines approved, deployed, the news from Northern Ireland of the massive drop in cases from the first group vaccinated giving the first actual indication that the vaccines work in a "real world" setting and work quickly, followed today by the Oxford Vaccine (Which despite Trumps view is the Vaccine that WILL save the world) has actually left me in a bit of a state!

 

[Uncle C]

"Around 3-4 million jabs done + two weeks."

What does this phrase mean exactly?

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

[tweet]1345959261050953729[/tweet]

good work

 

[beorhthelm]

...

3. 25-30 million jabs done. By end March/early April. This is when we have effective levels of community protection and can start getting back to near 'normal' in terms of how we can live our lives.

Interested to know how others see it?

so about 25 million jabs done in 12 weeks. what else has been put on a 12 week schedule... its almost as if someone has a plan

 

[nickbrighton]

"Around 3-4 million jabs done + two weeks."

What does this phrase mean exactly?

I read this as in +2 weeks from now. The next one a further 2 weeks from now.

So If today is D Day then D Day +2 weeks for 3-4 million jabs and D Day +4 weeks for the next stage

 

[Change at Barnham]

I hope your right, however:

1. The Government have a proven record of over promising and under delivering
2. I'm still not convinced that extending the time between the jabs is the correct way to go, as it may lead to further issues down the line
3. The South African variant may need a different vaccine

Just being my usual pessimistic self.

That's the bit that caught my attention on this morning's news channels. It doesn't bear thinking about if it finds it's way over to the UK.
I think I'll try and erase that thought from my mind.