[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[SeagullSongs]

Came out of lecture to be greeted with a veritable blizzard in SO17. Starting to settle on the grass, ground is still wet though.

 

[Southstandfaithful]

still snowing in London W1H but a bit of a feeble effort.

 

[footychick]

No snow here in Soham.

 

[willow147]

Re: The award-winning official "More snow tomorrow?" thread [2012-13 season]

We about 3 inches of snow last night in Folkestone, a few flurries today but it's melting quite quickly now.

Might be lethal tomorrow if it freezes overnight

 

[Southstandfaithful]

Snowing in HH started to settle in garden.

 

[Djmiles]

Yup settling a bit here in HH.

- - - Updated - - -

Yup settling a bit here in HH.

 

[casbom]

Just a heads up at this stage but if the ECM (best performing model) is close to being correct then we could see another cold spell developing. It has been very consistent in moving some high pressure to our north and if it goes north of Scotland then we will pick up some very cold easterly winds which if the cold is deep enough will bring snow. It's not a done deal by any means as the GFS operational run is having none of it. However some of it's ensembles are starting to pick up on this signal around the 20th for colder weather. UK MET model is in agreement with ECM (up to 144 hours) of pushing this high pressure off the coast of Norway.

So some possibility at this stage, one to keep an eye on.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Just a heads up at this stage but if the ECM (best performing model) is close to being correct then we could see another cold spell developing. It has been very consistent in moving some high pressure to our north and if it goes north of Scotland then we will pick up some very cold easterly winds which if the cold is deep enough will bring snow. It's not a done deal by any means as the GFS operational run is having none of it. However some of it's ensembles are starting to pick up on this signal around the 20th for colder weather. UK MET model is in agreement with ECM (up to 144 hours) of pushing this high pressure off the coast of Norway.

So some possibility at this stage, one to keep an eye on.

The GFS ensemble has been showing something interesting in the medium term lately, but has backed away recently.

 

[bn1&bn3 Albion]

Have not got the foggiest idea what half the people on this thread are saying..

 

[bravohotelalpha]

Have not got the foggiest idea what half the people on this thread are saying..

Foggiest ? And I thought they were talking about snow

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Foggiest ? And I thought they were talking about snow

I think he mist the point.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The ECM continues to show a very cold outlook from about 5 days out, with screaming easterlies and snow. GFS has,little support for this.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

In fact, having looked through all models now, it's pretty much GFS v the rest, with to one degree or another all others showing a variant of the ECM solution. Looks increasingly like an easterly is possible next week. Winter might have, one last surprise for us.

 

[Giraffe]

In fact, having looked through all models now, it's pretty much GFS v the rest, with to one degree or another all others showing a variant of the ECM solution. Looks increasingly like an easterly is possible next week. Winter might have, one last surprise for us.

Are we talking end of next week or before?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Are we talking end of next week or before?

Mid - ish. Depends on which model you look at it's from about 5 days time. So, the possibility is there from Tuesday.

 

[Giraffe]

Any update?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Any update?

Yep - cross model agreement now, with the GFS broadly agreeing on an increasingly cold easterly feed from the middle of next week.

There's a chance of snow, firstly via showers from the East (so more likely in Kent & E. Sussex) and maybe later from an undercutting low pressure.

Still loads of variation on the details and longevity of the cold spell.

There is definitely not enough agreement on this detail to confidently forecast snow with high certainty, as in such setups, it's possible to get either

1. bone dry and cold conditions, with lots of sun and hard frosts (away from East coast) or
2. dull grey days, with temps in the range 1-2C all the time... grim.
3. Cold rain - if things are just the wrogn side of marginal down south. Of course, the better options are
4. Sunny conditions interspersed with heavy snow showers driven off the N Sea by a strong ENE wind, pepped up by convections over the land (as the sun is now providing enough heat to do this) or even a Thames streamer.
5. Prolonged snow from a close tracking low pressure to our south.

All options are available at this range.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

the latest GFS ensemble shows good agreement at last.

Meteociel - Diagrammes GEFS

Snow 35 - 55% change for 2 1/2 days

 

[LamieRobertson]

Grass cutting starts for me in 2 weeks....or will that be snow clearing

- - - Updated - - -

Grass cutting starts for me in 2 weeks....or will that be snow clearing

 

[Giraffe]

Looking good for some of the white stuff by the end of the week.