[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[Max Paper]

So, in plain old English, when is it going to snow?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

So, in plain old English, when is it going to snow?

Later.

 

[Hillian1]

Later.

BOO, Bloody BOOOOOO.

Bring on the spring and summer, no more snow ever please (except maybe Xmas day)

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

There will be no snow this " winter " or should I say Autumn. This " cold " snap coming is not cold in any sense of the word. It wil be normal temperatures of 6-7 C instead of 12C day after day. The nights will be colder but only around 0C and not 10C, the night minimums this month have been 3C above what the daytime maximums should be. This is going to be the warmest winter since records began and will absolutely smash previous records. This winter is actually quite a lot warmer than average springs.

By Saturday will be back at a mild 9C so this " cold " snap is for 2 days.

We only have around 4 weeks for a cold spell / snow, there is no chance for the next week so 3 weeks in reality for any sort of winter.

 

[Woodchip]

Keep banging that drum US. I think I'll take Papa's word over yours though. Just personal preference mind.

Sent from my phone cause I can

 

[Hillian1]

There will be no snow this " winter " or should I say Autumn. This " cold " snap coming is not cold in any sense of the word. It wil be normal temperatures of 6-7 C instead of 12C day after day. The nights will be colder but only around 0C and not 10C, the night minimums this month have been 3C above what the daytime maximums should be. This is going to be the warmest winter since records began and will absolutely smash previous records. This winter is actually quite a lot warmer than average springs.

By Saturday will be back at a mild 9C so this " cold " snap is for 2 days.

We only have around 4 weeks for a cold spell / snow, there is no chance for the next week so 3 weeks in reality for any sort of winter.

That's f***ed it then.

I'm off to buy snow shoes/tyres/shovels, grit and anything else required for Ice Station Zebra Conditions.

 

[Giraffe]

That's f***ed it then.

I'm off to buy snow shoes/tyres/shovels, grit and anything else required for Ice Station Zebra Conditions.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

I am just presenting the facts and the facts are it is way way too warm this winter and no sign of that trend changing, time is running out.

 

[Bozza]

I am just presenting the facts and the facts are it is way way too warm this winter and no sign of that trend changing, time is running out.

You're not though, are you? [MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION] looks at many weather models that are produced and spends time interpreting and predicting what might be upcoming. From what I can see, certainly from what you say, you don't do any of this and just trot out lines like "we won't have snow, we never have any snow so we're not going to have any ever again" - you provide no analysis to back that up.

Now, don't get me wrong, you may well prove to be correct but that doesn't dis-prove my point. PL seems to do this scientifically, whilst you just take a guess.

All of that might be wrong of course, and this is your chance to may me look a fool - what models have you been tracking US, and what are they showing you?

(Please, please, please don't do your usual thin-skinned thing and state this is a vicious attack on you, say "typical NSC" and refuse to engage in debate - this is your chance to shine)

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

I may be battered and bruised after a recent thread Bozza but I will NEVER be beaten mate. The trend is for westerlies breaking through again early next week and temps back up to 13C by the middle of next week. The blocking from the East is just too weak and temperatures across the whole of Europe / Russia are at record level highs.

 

[Bozza]

I may be battered and bruised after a recent thread Bozza but I will NEVER be beaten mate. The trend is for westerlies breaking through again early next week and temps back up to 13C by the middle of next week. The blocking from the East is just too weak and temperatures across the whole of Europe / Russia are at record level highs.

Sounds good - I like being able to go out in the Winter months in just a t-shirt.

 

[The Wizard]

I'm into the weather as well and I'd (albeit tentatively right now as theres little consistency in the models) say Papa is correct, the models are showing significant changes at the moment. The ECM model and the UKMO model, which I trust the most as the GFS is ran 4 times a day and flip flops very regularly. Current signals suggest the polar vortex is on the move westwards which is good news for us as the place where its set up currently(Greenland) is probably about the worst place it could possibly set up for cold conditions in the uk. Change is definitely afoot. We are only half way through winter, plenty of time for snow yet.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I am just presenting the facts and the facts are it is way way too warm this winter and no sign of that trend changing, time is running out.

Whether it is too warm now is irrelevant to be fair. Remember Sunday 6th April 2008? 2 days before it was 16C and beautifully sunny in Sussex, yet we got 6 inches of snow that day, with temps around freezing. I spent the day tobogganing with the kids up at Cisbury ring.

With the correct airflow things can turn very quickly.

As a salient reminder - one of the harshest winters in UK has ever 1946 - 7 didn't really get started until Jan 21st.

Weather in 1947

That winter has been quoted a number of times by weather followers as early on it looked like this winter:

for example:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1947/Rslp19470114.gif

Is a chart from 14th Jan 1947 - looks pretty grotty, with a deep low mid Atlantic, and Azores to Europe high and an Arctic High to the far NE.

Only 4 days later we have a chart that looks almost identical to today's chart:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1947/Rslp19470118.gif

Another 3 days and we have a link between the 2 high pressure, and the low in the Atlantic is extending Southeast to undercut the high.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1947/Rslp19470121.gif

And by the 26th you have a raging Easterly, and heavy snow across the south....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1947/Rslp19470126.gif

See here for more on the amazing winter of 1947 here:

www.winter1947.co.uk


That aside, I totally agree that once we get into mid Feb, the sun does become stronger and will melt exposed snow even with air temps below freezing, but with a continental airflow (and snow) this can be negated (as 1947 proves)

I personally think it's all to play for as we head towards late Jan. We're free of the setup that has dogged us for months now, with a persistent high to our south and a circular polar vortex. The vortex is fragmenting and allowing the flow to buckle and block. One side effect of this is the development of high pressure cells to our North (be it NW over Greenland or NE over or beyond Scandinavia). This is happening now, and is forecast to develop further; and this is where we could get our cold air / snow.

For those that follow the charts, we need a few things to occur:

1. high Pressure to strength to the NE

2. Low pressure to track to the south of the local high pressure - to 'support' it and stop it slipping SE into europe (this effecitvely establishes a southern arm to the jet stream).

3. Our high to link into the cold arctic high and allow an Easterly flow to develop.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I may be battered and bruised after a recent thread Bozza but I will NEVER be beaten mate. The trend is for westerlies breaking through again early next week and temps back up to 13C by the middle of next week. The blocking from the East is just too weak and temperatures across the whole of Europe / Russia are at record level highs.

You may be correct. that's the 'joy' of the weather

 

[Stoichkov]

I usually have a look at the forum on net weather to get a sense of what those geeks think. Usually they're arguing over one million different models but I just try to get an overall feeling of the way they think its going and they seem to be quite optimistic.

However, for a more rational view I come on here to see what Papa says and if he thinks its looking quite promising then that'll do for me.

 

[Trufflehound]

Sounds good - I like being able to go out in the Winter months in just a t-shirt.

Me too.

I have no idea whether it will snow or not. I'm not an expert. But what I don't get is why so many on here want it to snow. Every time it does the whole of the UK grinds to a halt and everyone and his wife moans incessantly until it's gone again.

Bring on summer I say.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I usually have a look at the forum on net weather to get a sense of what those geeks think. Usually they're arguing over one million different models but I just try to get an overall feeling of the way they think its going and they seem to be quite optimistic.

However, for a more rational view I come on here to see what Papa says and if he thinks its looking quite promising then that'll do for me.

I am one of those weather geeks, and I'm cautiously optimistic.

 

[Giraffe]

Just for any newcomers to this thread we should recap on what happened last snow season. Papa said we were going to get snow and quite a bit of it. Uncle Spielberg said we wouldn't get any snow.

You may recall that we got the most snow we have had since the 1980's.

I am therefore more inclined to follow Papa's view this time!! Snow prediction is impossibly hard and no one can really know, but Papa has a track record, US has a different track record

 

[Stoichkov]

I am one of those weather geeks, and I'm cautiously optimistic.

That forum hurts my head. Its good to come on here and get the executive summary

 

[Woodchip]

Hove, United Kingdom Daily Weather Forecast - AccuWeather.com


Interesting times may be ahead. Long range forecast though, so it's going to be a fair amount of guess work.

Sent from my phone cause I can