[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[Uncle Spielberg]

Can we bounce this at the end of the month when the very cold snap is expected? Or are you likely to flounce off?

Sent from my phone cause I can

Who knows ? What I am saying, is that what I said earlier this week was 100% correct. The SW's will continue to dominate the weather this winter as the whole of Europe has been winter fee, we are mid jan now, so late jan before anything remotely cold could happen and it warms up from mid feb. The fact the weather forecasters think that 6C for Mid Jan is cold says all you need to know about this " winter ".

 

[South Stand Bonfire]

I know this is off topic snow wise, but as there are quite a few of NSC doing the Brighton Marathon on 15 April 12 and the fact last year, in running terms, it was hotter than Caldi's goal yesterday, would you be able to give a rough temperature prediction for mid April 12 nearer the time please?

I'd imagine she said it - they often talk b*llocks. Still huge uncertainty about the way things will go past about 4 days out. Defintely a colder / more settled spell coming up, with frost & fog a risk; after that - possibly a 2 day milder interlude, then cooler....

 

[Flex Your Head]

From the Met Office's forecast for Wednesday to Friday this week:

Friday windy, feeling very cold, with scattered perhaps heavy wintry showers.
Any thoughts, Papa?

 

[dadams2k11]

Who needs Micheal Fish when you have PaPa... Great work.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

From the Met Office's forecast for Wednesday to Friday this week:

Friday windy, feeling very cold, with scattered perhaps heavy wintry showers.
Any thoughts, Papa?

7C, normal for the time of year on Friday. Just give up on the Snow its not going to happen this Winter.

 

[Fungus]

Less than zero up here this morning. Brrrrr.

 

[CliveWalkerWingWizard]

Looking snowy in about a weeks time - any thoughts PL ?

 

[Giraffe]

Looks snowy from the 23rd onwards, but not on the coast where it will still be too warm I fear. North of the downs though perhaps?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Not had a chance to comment today, sorry.

The models still can't agree on which way to go from the magical date (21st Jan). It could be a brief cold interlude, or a proper blast or even a prolonged spell.... all options are still on the table. As a model watcher, it's something of a rollercoaster from 1 set to the next.

As I said 21st is the key to how this will develop, and how a low developing near Iceland zips SE across the UK (or not).

 

[Giraffe]

As I said 21st is the key to how this will develop, and how a low developing near Iceland zips SE across the UK (or not).

So once again the nation looks towards Iceland and says don't f*** us over.

They nicked our money, they grounded our planes, the least they can f***ing do is give us some of their snow to make up for all that!!!

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The current model output that is publicly available is not filling me full of optimism for a cold / snowy spell... but it's still a minority option. However, the Met Office who have access to a lot more data and their own detailed model output are saying this:

UK Outlook for Sunday 22 Jan 2012 to Tuesday 31 Jan 2012:

Sunday is likely to be chilly and windy, with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers. Showers should be most frequent in the north, with snow on hills, whilst the south should remain driest. Similar conditions will likely persist through the following days, with further showers and some more persistent rain likely to affect many areas. Temperatures will probably be near average, occasionally mild, but with overnight frosts possible in any quieter interludes. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the weather during the last few days of January. The slightly more probable scenario at present is that conditions will remain similar to those described above. However there is also a significant risk of much colder weather becoming established right across the UK, with snow in places and widespread overnight frosts.
Updated: 1310 on Tue 17 Jan 2012

UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 15 Feb 2012:

The forecast for the first half of February is very uncertain. As with the day 6 to 15 forecast, there appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different. It is also fairly likely that the prevailing weather type at the end of January will continue into February. The first scenario consists of a changeable westerly or southwesterly type, with rain at times (amounts greatest in the west), and with temperatures noticeably above average for early February, with only occasional frosts.
The alternative scenario is that very much colder weather, with winds from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail well into February, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall.

Updated: 1436 on Tue 17 Jan 2012

UK weather forecast - Met Office

 

[vegster]

The current model output that is publicly available is not filling me full of optimism for a cold / snowy spell... but it's still a minority option. However, the Met Office who have access to a lot more data and their own detailed model output are saying this:

UK Outlook for Sunday 22 Jan 2012 to Tuesday 31 Jan 2012:

Sunday is likely to be chilly and windy, with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers. Showers should be most frequent in the north, with snow on hills, whilst the south should remain driest. Similar conditions will likely persist through the following days, with further showers and some more persistent rain likely to affect many areas. Temperatures will probably be near average, occasionally mild, but with overnight frosts possible in any quieter interludes. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the weather during the last few days of January. The slightly more probable scenario at present is that conditions will remain similar to those described above. However there is also a significant risk of much colder weather becoming established right across the UK, with snow in places and widespread overnight frosts.
Updated: 1310 on Tue 17 Jan 2012

UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 15 Feb 2012:

The forecast for the first half of February is very uncertain. As with the day 6 to 15 forecast, there appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different. It is also fairly likely that the prevailing weather type at the end of January will continue into February. The first scenario consists of a changeable westerly or southwesterly type, with rain at times (amounts greatest in the west), and with temperatures noticeably above average for early February, with only occasional frosts.
The alternative scenario is that very much colder weather, with winds from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail well into February, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall.

Updated: 1436 on Tue 17 Jan 2012

UK weather forecast - Met Office

With. respect Papa, is it going to snow tommorow, in Shoreham as I'm bait digging...yes or no will suffice.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Can Papa confirm if he thinks the game is up now for this Winter. It may reach 14C today and the future looks mild, mild, mild. The " colder " weather for friday and the week end is now not happening. This takes us to late January now and only a drastic and sudden change with temps falling 10C would have any chance of snow in the Winter period as after mid Feb its over.

BBC Weather : Brighton

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Can Papa confirm if he thinks the game is up now for this Winter. It may reach 14C today and the future looks mild, mild, mild. The " colder " weather for friday and the week end is now not happening. This takes us to late January now and only a drastic and sudden change with temps falling 10C would have any chance of snow in the Winter period as after mid Feb its over.

BBC Weather : Brighton

It's not 'up for this winter' but the next few days will see a brief mild interlude, then; well, there's no model agreement at all... as the Met update states, it could be mild or very cold... no-one knows.

I'm still of the opinion that we will see something cold and snowy before winter's out, but that's not based upon any data that's avaialble to me.

 

[Flex Your Head]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 15 Feb 2012:

The forecast for the first half of February is very uncertain. As with the day 6 to 15 forecast, there appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different.

Snöwdinger’s Cat?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Snöwdinger’s Cat?

Brilliant!!

 

[Gangsta]

Snöwdinger’s Cat?

And my cat still has its thicker-than-usual winter coat on, so there must be snow on the way. It is an idiot however so may have got it wrong.

 

[Flex Your Head]

As I said 21st is the key to how this will develop, and how a low developing near Iceland zips SE across the UK (or not).

It's the 21st, and as I drifted off to sleep last night, I'm sure I heard the weatherman saying something about becoming much colder with the potential for snow next weekend... but I could've been dreaming.

Any thoughts Papa?

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

It's the 21st, and as I drifted off to sleep last night, I'm sure I heard the weatherman saying something about becoming much colder with the potential for snow next weekend... but I could've been dreaming.

Any thoughts Papa?

10C on 25/1. This Winter is done and dusted. It has been the warmest Winter in the 40 years I have been doing research for Sussex. The coldest day this Winter has been 5C at day with just 5 nights when the temp reached 0C, with the lowest -3 C. There has never been a winter where the day min has not fallen below 5C.

The constant westerlies and mild weather is just set to carry on. We only have 3 weeks of winter left now so its a no show.

 

[Falkor]

According to the weather snow towards the end of the week