[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[casbom]

Yeah it's a tough one to call at the moment, we might end up with 60 - 70 mph gusts or just a gentle breeze. The analogy of it (which I've tried to explain to my work colleagues) is imagine a spinning top merrily spinning away but not too fast then whilst it's moving about you try and place your hand on top to make it go faster, if you miss it doesn't speed up, but if you get it right then it will go mad! A small depression is coming across the atlantic, the big question is whether it connects with a very fast jet streak above. It it does then gales if it doesn't then you won't know anything different.

We'll have an idea over the weekend as to what is going to happen.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

It's this little blighter that's got everyone interested.

There's a large low centred to the North of Scotland, with a secondary low zipping along the jet to it's south. It's how quickly this little feature develops that could really hammer us.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

There's been plenty of early snow in Scotland with the ski resorts open.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/88898381@N02/sets/72157637526623474/

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Nothing in the forecast down here... yet.

 

[Flex Your Head]

Nothing in the forecast down here... yet.

Funnily enough I was thinking about bumping this thread earlier today as a colleague mentioned that the temperatures in the second half of November are looking to be a fair bit lower than ususal. Anything to back this up, or has he just been quoting from the Express again?

 

[Yoda]

Funnily enough I was thinking about bumping this thread earlier today as a colleague mentioned that the temperatures in the second half of November are looking to be a fair bit lower than ususal. Anything to back this up, or has he just been quoting from the Express again?

Not the Express, I've noticed it on a few runs lately.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Not the Express, I've noticed it on a few runs lately.

You've noticed what it's going to be like in 2 weeks time

 

[Leighgull]

Were all doomed I tell ee. I feel it in my water. This winter is going to be an EPIC.

I've been modelling it on my home met station. All of the signs are BAD.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

There's nothing to indicate snow down here in the model output. The GFS ensemble had had the odd 5-10% chance showing, but there's been no cross or intra model support

 

[jevs]

Any suggestions to what the weather's going to be like at the weekend Papa, met office only does 5 days. I've got a shed to put up on my allotment so sunny and calm would be nice if you could arranger it

 

[GingerBeerMan]

If this thread is bounced I always get a little bit excited inside, even if it was mid-summer I'd have a little bit of hope there might be snow coming up.

 

[Man of Harveys]

There's a 50% chance of snow over here in Boston tomorrow. Once that starts it doesn't bloody stop for the next four or five months.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Any suggestions to what the weather's going to be like at the weekend Papa, met office only does 5 days. I've got a shed to put up on my allotment so sunny and calm would be nice if you could arranger it

Looking ok at the weekend. The GFS ensemble shows low chance of rain on Saturday, slightly higher on Sunday

 

[Deleted member 18477]

Re: The award-winning official "More snow tomorrow?" thread [2013-14 season]

There's a 50% chance of snow over here in Boston tomorrow. Once that starts it doesn't bloody stop for the next four or five months.

Ahhhhh how do you get to work! Madness! Imagine even a month of snow in england

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Looking ok at the weekend. The GFS ensemble shows low chance of rain on Saturday, slightly higher on Sunday

And longer term, what in your opinion, are the chance of snow this side of Christmas?

 

[AZ Gull]

There's a 50% chance of snow over here in Boston tomorrow. Once that starts it doesn't bloody stop for the next four or five months.

Here in Tempe there is a forecast high of 90F today, 91F tomorrow.

 

[BrianWade4]

Probably lies but someone at work claimed they saw a little frost in Central London this afternoon. Snow on the way?

 

[Driver8]

The award-winning official "More snow tomorrow?" thread [2013-14 season]

Probably lies but someone at work claimed they saw a little frost in Central London this afternoon. Snow on the way?

Lies. Mild and damp in London today.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

And longer term, what in your opinion, are the chance of snow this side of Christmas?

There's nothing clear in the available data to point either way. I'd expect the same pattern as recent winters to appear at SOME point, but that might be before Xmas as it did in 2010, or Jan or Feb as it did on other winters. However, if there is a pattern change I'll report it and the fun can start.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Ok, so we're starting to see the first signs of colder weather for the UK. This spell (if it occurs as forecast) will probably only give snow to the North, but it does mark the first attempt at Mid Atlantic blocking, which has been a feature of the past 4 or 5 winters when snow has fallen down here.

This is the latest ECM output, with cold air forecast to push across the UK from the NE. Down here the upper air would be warm for snow, but there is some very cold air forecast for Scotland.



The other models shows slightly different evolutions, but they all feature some form of ridging from Mid Atlantic, so a change is potentially afoot.