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[Albion] Still think we’re safe?



Napper

Well-known member
Jul 9, 2003
24,327
Sussex
I hope we get safe rather than it going to the last day of the season away to a decent Burnley.

Think we are going to need at least another point which I suspect will have to be the Newcastle H game
 




vagabond

Well-known member
May 17, 2019
9,804
Brighton
I "need" it finished as soon as possible so we can have the joy of relaxing games, and Potter can experiment and prepare for next year.

Also, the sooner we have certainty for incoming transfer strategy the better.

Yep [emoji106] I can’t relax until we’re safe. Let’s a result on Thurs.
 




Is it PotG?

Thrifty non-licker
Feb 20, 2017
24,831
Sussex by the Sea
100% safe.

The combination of results needed for us to go down would be nothing short of miraculous. I don't think we even need another point.
 






Official Old Man

Uckfield Seagull
Aug 27, 2011
8,923
Brighton
I've just been reminded by my Palace mate of the 92/93 season. Palace drew on a Saturday meaning Oldham needed to win their last three games. They did whilst Palace lost all three and were relegated on GD.
 


Napper

Well-known member
Jul 9, 2003
24,327
Sussex
100% safe.

The combination of results needed for us to go down would be nothing short of miraculous. I don't think we even need another point.

Bournemouth beating Everton and Southampton isn't that miraculous. Us not getting a point wouldn't be miraculous.

Thats before you analyse Villa.

Think will be safe but reckon it may get closer before we get "100%" safe
 


Is it PotG?

Thrifty non-licker
Feb 20, 2017
24,831
Sussex by the Sea
Bournemouth beating Everton and Southampton isn't that miraculous. Us not getting a point wouldn't be miraculous.

Thats before you analyse Villa.

Think will be safe but reckon it may get closer before we get "100%" safe

Sorry, that's how I see it. I have no concerns about staying up whatsoever. I still think Watford are in the plops too.
 




Lever

Well-known member
Feb 6, 2019
5,432
Speculation is entertaining but pointless.
We know survival is in our hands.
Let's grab it.
On Thursday.
 




drew

Drew
Oct 3, 2006
23,383
Burgess Hill
Bournemouth beating Everton and Southampton isn't that miraculous. Us not getting a point wouldn't be miraculous.

Thats before you analyse Villa.

Think will be safe but reckon it may get closer before we get "100%" safe

Alternatively, by the time we kick off on Thursday we might know we only need 1pt from three games!!
 




nwgull

Well-known member
Jul 25, 2003
14,365
Manchester
It would thats for sure :lolol: I just cannot see all of those particular planets aligning. Man City A for Bournemouth next for example.

It really wouldn’t be typical at all - where does this myth come from? My first game was mid 80s (although I didn’t start supporting properly until the early 90s), and in that time I can’t recall us arsing things up from a situation like this. Have I forgotten any particular relegations?

I suppose we should’ve won the Championship in 2017, but the players stopped playing and went on a bender with 3 games to go having achieved the primary objective of promotion, which was done professionally with ease.
 


Is it PotG?

Thrifty non-licker
Feb 20, 2017
24,831
Sussex by the Sea
The bookies (usually there or thereabouts) have both Villa and 'Muff strong odds on to go (1/12 and 1/10). Combine that with Watford's 'mare and....36 should be enough. We will get more, but 36 will be hard to peg back for all 3 sides.

As with anything, you have to go on probability rather than possibility. 'Muff and Villa are where they are for a reason.
 


E

Eric Youngs Contact Lense

Guest
I wish I shared the certainty of others! This scenario was always likely to happen given the run of fixtures, but there is some tension still to come..
On the positive side, Bournemouth have to go to City and also play Southampton, albeit a South Coast Derby may not have the same tension in it without the crowd.. and Everton who are unpredictable. 2 wins best return.
Watford have to play West Ham, City and Arsenal.. Watford could win 2 of these (best case) but if they do West Ham will still probably need something from final villa game, whoch would be good for us.
Villa , have to play Everton, Arsenal and West Ham.. Everton and Arsenal both winnable given the unpredictable nature of Everton/Arsenal, but and West ham away depends on whether Hammers need anything. It looks tough for them and unlikley, but.. its Brighton...
Beat Saints and i will join the "Safe" club, but that looks a tough one.. would take a draw!
 




Thunder Bolt

Silly old bat
I've just been reminded by my Palace mate of the 92/93 season. Palace drew on a Saturday meaning Oldham needed to win their last three games. They did whilst Palace lost all three and were relegated on GD.

That’s just between two teams.
Norwich are down, so it’s two teams from five, a couple of whom have to play each other.
 


Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,298
Brighton
Those who think we have more than reasonable chance of going down, bookies are still offering 80/1, so you should absolutely pile on.
 


vagabond

Well-known member
May 17, 2019
9,804
Brighton
The bookies (usually there or thereabouts) have both Villa and 'Muff strong odds on to go (1/12 and 1/10). Combine that with Watford's 'mare and....36 should be enough. We will get more, but 36 will be hard to peg back for all 3 sides.

As with anything, you have to go on probability rather than possibility. 'Muff and Villa are where they are for a reason.

The bookies had us at 200/1 last week!

I still think we’ll be ok, but just shows how fast things can change in this league.
 






sparkie

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
13,085
Hove
Those who think we have more than reasonable chance of going down, bookies are still offering 80/1, so you should absolutely pile on.
I think 80/1 is absolutely fantastic value, and that we have a >10% chance of going down.

This means however that I still think it is on balance a losing bet - throwing money away - so they'll have to offer me "out of this world" odds to bet.... and 80/1 isn't "out of this world".
 


Blackadder

Brighton Bhuna Boy
Jul 6, 2003
16,111
Haywards Heath
I was thinking about the weekend's results last night. We have been fortunate in how the results have played out amongst our rivals. We were always going to lose against City. None of us thought that all 4 of our rivals would win. Leicester and Palace have been shitehouse since lockdown and Newcastle are on the beach. Norwich were always gonna lose. The "4" have to play more difficult games. I still don't think we lose our remaining 3 games. Guess we will know in a fortnight (Hopefully next week).
 


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