[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[raymondo]

Yes, anything suspended is presumably reversible.
No, he didn't say he was cancelling the treaty. Is a cancellation reversible as well? I'm not sure in this case.

But are those questions the right ones to ask anyway?

It sounds like he made a belligerent gesture in this morning's speech (a unilateral suspension of the treaty), and then a few hours later, hinted that the suspension may be reversible. In return for what exactly?

Make a threat, but offer to then not carry it out in return for something he wants?

'I plan to nuke Ukrainian cities, but it may be avoidable if you give me the Donbas'.

Well, we know already that whatever Putin says cannot be trusted, and treaties seem completely irrelevant at the moment anyhow

 

[Rugrat]

Well, we know already that whatever Putin says cannot be trusted, and treaties seem completely irrelevant at the moment anyhow

True, it's just mind games.

If ever the term 'action speaks louder than words' applied to anyone then it's him

 

[Sirnormangall]

Unfortunately many people are automatically predisposed to believe a certain thing over another. Look at the way Trump manages to convince so many in the US that the last election was somehow rigged, even though there is literally no evidence to suggest it was. The difference being in the western democracies there's a plurality of people for others pin their hats to so it kind of balances out (for everyone in the UK who thinks Nigel Farage walks on water there's someone who believes Jeremy Corbyn is the second coming), whereas in Russia it's Putin or nothing. Then you get the people who almost certainly don't believe what he's saying but keep their traps shut to avoid disappearing in the middle of the night.

Well said. A friend recently met some Russians whilst travelling. They were clearly embarrassed about the war, critical of Putin but ( not surprisingly) too scared to do anything about it - just keeping their heads down at home until it goes away.

 

[Eric the meek]

True, it's just mind games.

If ever the term 'action speaks louder than words' applied to anyone then it's him

Indeed. Zelensky has already dismissed Putin's move as intimidation.

Meanwhile, American officials already believed that Moscow was failing to follow the pact anyway.

 

[Brovion]

I just saw this on the BBC.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-64713099

'Suspension of nuclear pact reversible, Russia signals'

'Away from Warsaw, Russia has signalled the possibility of compromise on a key nuclear arms agreement with the US.
A decision to suspend participation in the New Start treaty "may be reversible", according to a post on the Telegram messaging app by the Russian Foreign Ministry.
President Putin announced the suspension in his speech earlier today.'

It didn't take long for Putin to back pedal, did it?

Was there a back-channel discussion going on as well?

Like everybody else I have absolutely no idea, but my pet theory is the Chinese may have had a word in his ear. China might be more on his side than ours, but they don't want to see the world turned into a ball of radioactive ash any more than we do. Certainly not over Ukraine.

 

[jcdenton08]

Hi, thanks so much. Here's the link to their website so you can have a read first, and the gofundme donation link is further down the article. Cheers if you decide to donate, and no worries if not

GENERATORS FOR UKRAINE

www.generatorsforukraine.co.uk

Donating tonight - great cause, thanks for sharing.

 

[raymondo]

Donating tonight - great cause, thanks for sharing.

Thank you so much @jcdenton08 .
I know there are many options for donating (and not 100% are legit, sadly); this one seems focused on practical help to civilians.

 

[Eric the meek]

Like everybody else I have absolutely no idea, but my pet theory is the Chinese may have had a word in his ear. China might be more on his side than ours, but they don't want to see the world turned into a ball of radioactive ash any more than we do. Certainly not over Ukraine.

The Chinese certainly won't want that. Nor will they want sanctions imposed on them by the west, restricting access to a billion people in first world markets.

They are likely to consider what is in their own best interests. I suspect that will be to maximise the strategic position they find themselves in, but minimise the risk of escalation and sanctions. What that means on the ground exactly, is anyone's guess, but I would imagine they will seek to maintain normal relations with Russia, but also seek to end the war.

 

[Weststander]

The Chinese certainly won't want that. Nor will they want sanctions imposed on them by the west, restricting access to a billion people in first world markets.

They are likely to consider what is in their own best interests. I suspect that will be to maximise the strategic position they find themselves in, but minimise the risk of escalation and sanctions. What that means on the ground exactly, is anyone's guess, but I would imagine they will seek to maintain normal relations with Russia, but also seek to end the war.

China currently has its cake and eat it.

Opposing the West (not just the US) eg Australia, Japan, trying to bully others out of open seas. Surreptitiously backing our enemies.

Whilst it got and stays rich (but not the common man) from selling to the West. Governments went for globalisation, to produce everything far cheaper, shipping ‘crap’ across the globe, accelerating the use of finite resources. With unintended consequences.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

I’m pretty sure anything suspended is reversible isn’t it? He never said the deal was cancelled did he?

There haven’t been reciprocal inspections for a few years now so the treaty was probably worthless anyway. More meaningless bluster from Putin.

 

[sparkie]

Like everybody else I have absolutely no idea, but my pet theory is the Chinese may have had a word in his ear. China might be more on his side than ours, but they don't want to see the world turned into a ball of radioactive ash any more than we do. Certainly not over Ukraine.

Good theory.

Putin always seems to row back on his nuclear sabre rattling bluster after meetings with China or India.

 

[Eric the meek]

China currently has its cake and eat it.

Opposing the West (not just the US) eg Australia, Japan, trying to bully others out of open seas. Surreptitiously backing our enemies.

Whilst it got and stays rich (but not the common man) from selling to the West. Governments went for globalisation, to produce everything far cheaper, shipping ‘crap’ across the globe, accelerating the use of finite resources. With unintended consequences.

Yes, agreed.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. But in the meantime, China can hoover up cheap Russian oil, gas and metals etc. Why change?

I'm struggling to think of a scenario in which China would arm Russia. If they did, they would risk helping Russians to kill more Ukrainians, and maybe other nationalities, increasing the risk of escalation and sanctions. Russia is now a world pariah, and is in real danger of breaking up. Better to bide your time, keep Russia dangling, pick over the carcass, and be best placed to take advantage of the myriad opportunities for land, influence and power during the disintegration of the Russian Federation.

All conjecture of course. I may be wrong, and frequently am.

 

[Binney on acid]

Hi, thanks so much. Here's the link to their website so you can have a read first, and the gofundme donation link is further down the article. Cheers if you decide to donate, and no worries if not

GENERATORS FOR UKRAINE

www.generatorsforukraine.co.uk

Done.

 

[Albion in the north]

Yes, agreed.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. But in the meantime, China can hoover up cheap Russian oil, gas and metals etc. Why change?

I'm struggling to think of a scenario in which China would arm Russia. If they did, they would risk helping Russians to kill more Ukrainians, and maybe other nationalities, increasing the risk of escalation and sanctions. Russia is now a world pariah, and is in real danger of breaking up. Better to bide your time, keep Russia dangling, pick over the carcass, and be best placed to take advantage of the myriad opportunities for land, influence and power during the disintegration of the Russian Federation.

All conjecture of course. I may be wrong, and frequently am.

I regularly see updates on twitter from a Ukrainian fighting on the frontline. Currently in Bakhmut but was elsewhere at the beginning. He says they regularly see Chinese supplied equipment especially drones. China knows that Russia is not going to win but by helping to drag the war out as long as possible, they know that Russia will be even weaker and more of a pariah on the world stage, when the war is over, allowing them to exert even more influence over them.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I regularly see updates on twitter from a Ukrainian fighting on the frontline. Currently in Bakhmut but was elsewhere at the beginning. He says they regularly see Chinese supplied equipment especially drones. China knows that Russia is not going to win but by helping to drag the war out as long as possible, they know that Russia will be even weaker and more of a pariah on the world stage, when the war is over, allowing them to exert even more influence over them.

Well yes, they want Russia to be dependent on them.

But the sort of drones which are being used are not mostly military (and adapted for military purpose) aren't they? So would likely be made in China

 

[raymondo]

I regularly see updates on twitter from a Ukrainian fighting on the frontline. Currently in Bakhmut but was elsewhere at the beginning. He says they regularly see Chinese supplied equipment especially drones. China knows that Russia is not going to win but by helping to drag the war out as long as possible, they know that Russia will be even weaker and more of a pariah on the world stage, when the war is over, allowing them to exert even more influence over them.

A very believable first hand report from the frontline.

 

[Eric the meek]

I regularly see updates on twitter from a Ukrainian fighting on the frontline. Currently in Bakhmut but was elsewhere at the beginning. He says they regularly see Chinese supplied equipment especially drones. China knows that Russia is not going to win but by helping to drag the war out as long as possible, they know that Russia will be even weaker and more of a pariah on the world stage, when the war is over, allowing them to exert even more influence over them.

That's a very interesting take on a possible broader Chinese strategy. I've always thought a policy to drag the war out by delaying arms to Ukraine, (providing them with just enough not to lose, and to grind the Russians down) was precisely what the US wanted, so that Russia would slowly be drained of money, morale, arms, troops etc. All done at arms length with a minimum of risk. Until you mentioned it, it hadn't occurred to me that such a strategy might also suit the Chinese.

 

[Triggaaar]

I regularly see updates on twitter from a Ukrainian fighting on the frontline. Currently in Bakhmut but was elsewhere at the beginning. He says they regularly see Chinese supplied equipment especially drones.

That's depressing. I wonder what the West are doing with this information?

China knows that Russia is not going to win but by helping to drag the war out as long as possible, they know that Russia will be even weaker and more of a pariah on the world stage, when the war is over, allowing them to exert even more influence over them.

I'd have thought that if China wants Russia to lose and be weak, it would be better if they performed worse and lost more quickly. Aiding them to carry on the fight does not guarantee they'll lose.

 

[raymondo]

Russian Wagner chief Prigozhin blames ammunition shortage for high deaths

Notorious mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin accuses Russia's top brass of trying to destroy his group.

www.bbc.co.uk

May the infighting escalate into direct combat between them

 

[chickens]

Russian Wagner chief Prigozhin blames ammunition shortage for high deaths

Notorious mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin accuses Russia's top brass of trying to destroy his group.

www.bbc.co.uk

May the infighting escalate into direct combat between them

It does seem that Prigozhin is openly stoking conflict with the Kremlin. Such acts traditionally end with someone falling out a window. The question is, with Prigozhin openly courting other separatist warlords fighting for Russia, will it be Prigozhin or Putin?

This is the first time Putin’s authority is being openly and repeatedly challenged. Prigozhin has to be fairly confident that he has the muscle to repel any attempts to bring him to heel to adopt this position. Prigozhin for Russian leader?